With the majority of banks in the country expected to release their third quarter earnings next week, analysts are hoping to learn how exactly the global credit crunch has affected the local banking system.
So far, only Union National Bank (UNB) and Commercial Bank of Dubai have released statements, with both reporting healthy profits. However, analysts are still awaiting news from the larger banks to see whether the recent financial turmoil has significantly slowed loan growth or reduced bank deposits.
Although banks will likely continue to show considerable profits during the third quarter, analysts will be paying more attention to banks' balance sheets this quarter, according to Emmanuel Volland, an analyst at Standard and Poor's (S&P's), a rating agency.
For local banks, "one of the challenges is going to be increasing their core customer deposits", along with reining in loan growth, he said.
On Monday, UNB was the first Abu Dhabi-based bank to release its earnings. It reported Dh581 million (US$158.2m) in net income during the third quarter, up from Dh424m in the previous quarter and surpassing predictions.
Although UNB's net profit for the period was more than double the same period last year, customer deposits fell from Dh47.7 billion in June to Dh43.9bn. The share price of UNB rose on the news, climbing from Dh4.46 to Dh4.83 on Wednesday.
The Commercial Bank of Dubai also released a profit report on Wednesday, announcing a 19 per cent rise in third quarter profit. Loans and advances increased 59 per cent compared with the same period last year, while customer deposits were up 41 per cent. Western banks have begun releasing their third quarter reports as well, posting much more serious losses than the UAE banks. Merrill Lynch announced a loss of US$7.5bn yesterday, worse than analysts expected.
"Though you won't find all the answers in the third quarter, there might be some signs that loan growth is slowing down, funding is getting a bit tighter, there will be negative investment valuations," said Robert Thursfield, the director of financial institutions at Fitch Ratings.
In the past year, loan growth in the UAE has expanded rapidly, making it the only national banking sector in the GCC whose loans exceeded its deposits as of June 30. The pace of loan growth accelerated in the first half of this year to an increase of about 50 per cent annually, according to a report by S&P's.
From July to the end of last month, the local banking system underwent a series of shocks that prompted the Government to take extraordinary measures to support it. Foreign investors withdrew billions of dirhams of speculative "hot money" from the banking system, while at the same time foreign lenders suddenly stopped extending credit.
In response to these shocks, the Central Bank last month created a Dh50bn emergency lending facility, followed by a series of other steps taken this week, including insuring deposits and transfers between local banks, and promising to inject an additional Dh70bn into the local system.
However, the Government's efforts have been unable to lower the Emirates interbank offer rate (Eibor) to normal levels. Although the Eibor fell slightly yesterday to 4.57, it still remains nearly twice as high as it was in June.
Credit default swaps (CDS) for debt issued by banks have climbed significantly since the credit crunch hit the UAE, indicating investors are betting the banks are more likely to default on their debt. CDS for Emirates Bank International and Mashreqbank nearly doubled last month, although they fell slightly following the government measures taken this week.
tpantin@thenational.ae
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 1 Chelsea 0
De Bruyne (70')
Man of the Match: Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City)
Normcore explained
Something of a fashion anomaly, normcore is essentially a celebration of the unremarkable. The term was first popularised by an article in New York magazine in 2014 and has been dubbed “ugly”, “bland’ and "anti-style" by fashion writers. It’s hallmarks are comfort, a lack of pretentiousness and neutrality – it is a trend for those who would rather not stand out from the crowd. For the most part, the style is unisex, favouring loose silhouettes, thrift-shop threads, baseball caps and boyish trainers. It is important to note that normcore is not synonymous with cheapness or low quality; there are high-fashion brands, including Parisian label Vetements, that specialise in this style. Embraced by fashion-forward street-style stars around the globe, it’s uptake in the UAE has been relatively slow.
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EXPATS
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
F1 2020 calendar
March 15 - Australia, Melbourne; March 22 - Bahrain, Sakhir; April 5 - Vietnam, Hanoi; April 19 - China, Shanghai; May 3 - Netherlands, Zandvoort; May 20 - Spain, Barcelona; May 24 - Monaco, Monaco; June 7 - Azerbaijan, Baku; June 14 - Canada, Montreal; June 28 - France, Le Castellet; July 5 - Austria, Spielberg; July 19 - Great Britain, Silverstone; August 2 - Hungary, Budapest; August 30 - Belgium, Spa; September 6 - Italy, Monza; September 20 - Singapore, Singapore; September 27 - Russia, Sochi; October 11 - Japan, Suzuka; October 25 - United States, Austin; November 1 - Mexico City, Mexico City; November 15 - Brazil, Sao Paulo; November 29 - Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi.
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
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Company Profile
Company name: OneOrder
Started: October 2021
Founders: Tamer Amer and Karim Maurice
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Industry: technology, logistics
Investors: A15 and self-funded
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