With the fall of their dictators last year many say a new era of peace and prosperity awaits the likes of Libya, Egypt and Tunisia. But it is not as simple as that, Binod Shankar writes.
There is this idea floating around that since the dictatorships in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen have been kicked out, these countries are going to see huge foreign investment inflows.
In addition, so the argument goes, unemployment will dip and capital markets are going to soar.
The theory says that in the short term things will be chaotic but in the long term democracy will result in more open, larger economies.
At least that is what I hear at dinner parties.
This is patently and dangerously false. Let me be absolutely frank; democracy does not always translate into economic growth and especially in parts of the Middle East and North Africa region that is even less certain.
Many people seem to think that if all the money stolen by Libya's Qaddafi, and allegedly by Tunisia's deposed leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, is brought back, then all the economic problems will be solved. While the fight against corruption is an important part of measures aimed at stimulating growth, this is far from enough.
These countries need to strengthen institution-building, respect for the rule of law, education, work ethic and physical infrastructure rather than just bring back a few stolen billions.
The sense of entitlement is another issue. Ever since Egypt's former leader Hussein's mix of nationalism and socialism spread throughout the Middle East in the 1950s and 1960s, Arab economies have been dominated by the government. So much so that the private sector is small and feeble.
And at the micro level, there is a shocking sense of entitlement that the government owes everyone a living and everyone's dream is a government job. You are nothing if you don't have one and being self-employed is seen as the last refuge of the really desperate. Unless this attitude changes, what this will build is a vast, incompetent and corrupt bureaucracy that holds back economic growth, reinforcing a vicious cycle that led to the uprisings in the first place.
The rise of political Islam is another reason to be cautious. It is dangerous and misleading to link religion with economic growth but secular parties have little influence in Arab Spring countries. If the Muslim Brotherhood comes to power in Egypt, as it was claiming yesterday, it may take an aggressively anti-United States foreign policy, something which will play very well to the masses and vested interests in the religious hierarchy. Venezuela, Iraq and the Iran are examples that spring to mind.
An anti-US stance would be a big mistake, slowing foreign investment to a trickle and at worst introducing the risk of sanctions.
The tribal structure of many of the Arab Spring nations is another factor of instability. The former regimes put a lid on tribal rivalry through their oppressive internal security networks and often playing off one tribe against the other. The Arab Spring has validated a resurgence of tribal allegiance and this presents major risks to the integrity of some nation states in the region. A sobering lesson in what could follow was witnessed after the death of Tito, the Yugoslav dictator who died in office in 1980. It has been 17 years since the Dayton Accord halted hostilities in the Balkans, but Zagreb and Sarajevo are still near the bottom of any investor's hitlist.
There are few examples of successful democratic transition in the Arab world. Lebanon could be seen as the only democracy in the region, but behind the antics and controversies is a perfect example of what can go wrong. More than two decades after the civil war ended, Lebanon is still a basket-case economically, politically and militarily.
Once the glow of change fades, disenchantment could set in if the young still have no jobs and corruption remains endemic.
The incumbents risk being removed quickly to be replaced by another gang and I would not be surprised if many residents soon felt a pang of nostalgia for the days of dictatorship.
Investors will be reluctant to commit funds to a country where governments and policies can change overnight. The market may not reward investors for being particularly brave.
Binod Shankar is a CFA charter holder and is the Managing Director of Genesis Institute, a financial training company based in Dubai
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SPECS
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20750hp%20at%207%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20800Nm%20at%205%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%207%20Speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20332kph%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012.2L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYear%20end%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh1%2C430%2C000%20(coupe)%3B%20From%20Dh1%2C566%2C000%20(Spider)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Osasuna 1 Real Madrid 4
Osasuna: García (14')
Real Madrid: Isco (33'), Ramos (38'), Vázquez (84'), Jovic (90' 2)
Company%20Profile
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Keane on …
Liverpool’s Uefa Champions League bid: “They’re great. With the attacking force they have, for me, they’re certainly one of the favourites. You look at the teams left in it - they’re capable of scoring against anybody at any given time. Defensively they’ve been good, so I don’t see any reason why they couldn’t go on and win it.”
Mohamed Salah’s debut campaign at Anfield: “Unbelievable. He’s been phenomenal. You can name the front three, but for him on a personal level, he’s been unreal. He’s been great to watch and hopefully he can continue now until the end of the season - which I’m sure he will, because he’s been in fine form. He’s been incredible this season.”
Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s instant impact at former club LA Galaxy: “Brilliant. It’s been a great start for him and for the club. They were crying out for another big name there. They were lacking that, for the prestige of LA Galaxy. And now they have one of the finest stars. I hope they can go win something this year.”
Fixtures (all in UAE time)
Friday
Everton v Burnley 11pm
Saturday
Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur 3.30pm
West Ham United v Southampton 6pm
Wolves v Fulham 6pm
Cardiff City v Crystal Palace 8.30pm
Newcastle United v Liverpool 10.45pm
Sunday
Chelsea v Watford 5pm
Huddersfield v Manchester United 5pm
Arsenal v Brighton 7.30pm
Monday
Manchester City v Leicester City 11pm
More on Turkey's Syria offence
UAE SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Ali Khaseif, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Adel Al Hosani
Defenders: Bandar Al Ahbabi, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Walid Abbas, Mahmoud Khamis, Mohammed Barghash, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Hassan Al Mahrami, Yousef Jaber, Salem Rashid, Mohammed Al Attas, Alhassan Saleh
Midfielders: Ali Salmeen, Abdullah Ramadan, Abdullah Al Naqbi, Majed Hassan, Yahya Nader, Ahmed Barman, Abdullah Hamad, Khalfan Mubarak, Khalil Al Hammadi, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Harib Abdallah, Mohammed Jumah, Yahya Al Ghassani
Forwards: Fabio De Lima, Caio Canedo, Ali Saleh, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri
Water waste
In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.
Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.
A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.
The Emirates is the world’s third largest per capita water consumer after the US and Canada.
England v South Africa schedule:
- First Test: At Lord's, England won by 219 runs
- Second Test: July 14-18, Trent Bridge, Nottingham, 2pm
- Third Test: The Oval, London, July 27-31, 2pm
- Fourth Test: Old Trafford, Manchester, August 4-8
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
- Grade 9 = above an A*
- Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
- Grade 7 = grade A
- Grade 6 = just above a grade B
- Grade 5 = between grades B and C
- Grade 4 = grade C
- Grade 3 = between grades D and E
- Grade 2 = between grades E and F
- Grade 1 = between grades F and G
Gulf Under 19s
Pools
A – Dubai College, Deira International School, Al Ain Amblers, Warriors
B – Dubai English Speaking College, Repton Royals, Jumeirah College, Gems World Academy
C – British School Al Khubairat, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Dubai Hurricanes, Al Yasmina Academy
D – Dubai Exiles, Jumeirah English Speaking School, English College, Bahrain Colts
Recent winners
2018 – Dubai College
2017 – British School Al Khubairat
2016 – Dubai English Speaking School
2015 – Al Ain Amblers
2014 – Dubai College
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 275hp at 6,600rpm
Torque: 353Nm from 1,450-4,700rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Top speed: 250kph
Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: Dh146,999
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDirect%20Debit%20System%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sept%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20with%20a%20subsidiary%20in%20the%20UK%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Undisclosed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Elaine%20Jones%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
CONCRETE COWBOY
Directed by: Ricky Staub
Starring: Idris Elba, Caleb McLaughlin, Jharrel Jerome
3.5/5 stars
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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MATCH INFO
Burnley 1 (Brady 89')
Manchester City 4 (Jesus 24', 50', Rodri 68', Mahrez 87')
'THE WORST THING YOU CAN EAT'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
Company%20Profile
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Ruwais timeline
1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established
1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants
1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed
1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.
1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex
2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea
2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd
2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens
2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies
2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export
2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.
2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery
2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital
2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13
Source: The National
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The%20Specs
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INDIA'S%20TOP%20INFLUENCERS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBhuvan%20Bam%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fbhuvan.bam22%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%2016.1%20million%3Cbr%3EBhuvan%20Bam%20is%20a%2029-year-old%20comedian%20and%20actor%20from%20Delhi%2C%20who%20started%20out%20with%20YouTube%20channel%2C%20%E2%80%9CBB%20Ki%20Vines%E2%80%9D%20in%202015%2C%20which%20propelled%20the%20social%20media%20star%20into%20the%20limelight%20and%20made%20him%20sought-after%20among%20brands.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EKusha%20Kapila%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fkushakapila%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%203.1%20million%3Cbr%3EKusha%20Kapila%20is%20a%20fashion%20editor%20and%20actress%2C%20who%20has%20collaborated%20with%20brands%20including%20Google.%20She%20focuses%20on%20sharing%20light-hearted%20content%20and%20insights%20into%20her%20life%20as%20a%20rising%20celebrity.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDiipa%20Khosla%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fdiipakhosla%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.8%20million%3Cbr%3EDiipa%20Khosla%20started%20out%20as%20a%20social%20media%20manager%20before%20branching%20out%20to%20become%20one%20of%20India's%20biggest%20fashion%20influencers%2C%20with%20collaborations%20including%20MAC%20Cosmetics.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EKomal%20Pandey%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fkomalpandeyofficial%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.8%20million%3Cbr%3EKomal%20Pandey%20is%20a%20fashion%20influencer%20who%20has%20partnered%20with%20more%20than%20100%20brands%2C%20including%20Olay%20and%20smartphone%20brand%20Vivo%20India.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENikhil%20Sharma%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fnikkkhil%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.4%20million%3Cbr%3ENikhil%20Sharma%20from%20Mumbai%20began%20his%20online%20career%20through%20vlogs%20about%20his%20motorcycle%20trips.%20He%20has%20become%20a%20lifestyle%20influencer%20and%20has%20created%20his%20own%20clothing%20line.%3Cbr%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Hireinfluence%2C%20various%3C%2Fem%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Meydan race card
6.30pm: Maiden; Dh165,000; (Dirt) 1,200m
7.05pm: Handicap; Dh170,000; (D) 1,200m
7.40pm: Maiden; Dh165,000; (D) 1,900m
8.15pm: Handicap; Dh185,000; (D) 2,000m
8.50pm: Handicap; Dh185,000; (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap; Dh165,000; (D) 2,000m
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
