Not only western elections feature populists with reckless economic plans. Where the former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad promised to “put the oil money on the tablecloth”, challengers in the current election pose a danger to the country’s vital oil industry.
In (often unreliable) polls, the incumbent Hassan Rouhani has a strong lead over his two closest challengers, the hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi and the conservative mayor of Tehran, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf. If he were not to win outright, there would be a run-off a week later.
Mr Ahmadinejad’s tenure was disastrous for the Iranian petroleum industry. He took office promising to clear out the “petroleum mafia” but raised oil ministry employment from 100,000 to 250,000, fired experienced managers and installed cronies. Billions of dollars of oil revenue went missing in corruption scandals and insider privatisations. Long negotiations with international oil companies led only to dozens of preliminary agreements.
Field development contracts went instead to political favourites, particularly the Revolutionary Guard’s arm Khatam Al Anbiya, which struggled to complete them because of mismanagement, lack of finance and unavailability of key equipment as sanctions tightened.
Mr Rouhani’s government has worked diligently to clean up the mess, end sanctions and restore Iran’s oil exports. So far, as with the wider economy, this has been a job of recovery rather than progress and the common complaint against him is that Iranians have so far received little benefit from the nuclear deal.
His administration has stated that the oil and gas sector alone requires US$200 billion of investment over the next four years. That is equivalent to Iran’s entire oil export earnings over the same period, at current prices. Any president will face the same compulsion – large-scale foreign investment is the only way to sustain oil production and keep boosting gas.
Oil production recovered quickly last year to almost pre-sanctions levels but in recent months has been flat or even slipped. Gas output has surged since 2015 as long-delayed phases of the world’s largest field, South Pars, have come into service. For the first time, Iran has enough to meet its domestic needs, supply a plethora of petrochemical projects half-built in the Ahmadinejad years, reinject into its ageing oilfields and launch new exports to countries such as Iraq, Pakistan and Oman.
But this favourable situation will not last long: domestic demand keeps rising while, in the absence of firm deals with foreign investors, oil and gas will experience little medium-term growth. International oil companies have been holding off on firm commitments and the elections, and then Donald Trump’s required sanctions waivers next month, are reasons for further delay.
Mr Ghalibaf has made impossible promises on economic growth and job creation. Nevertheless, he would probably be a pragmatic, technocratic type of manager. Mr Raisi, with limited relevant experience, has pledged unaffordable increases in cash handouts to lower-income Iranians. He may opt to hew more closely to the supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s line of a closed “resistance” economy, which cannot possibly generate the required investment and expertise the energy sector needs. Both would hand more petroleum projects to the Revolutionary Guards to shore up their base.
A win for either conservative candidate would probably lead to Iran losing international sympathy, and lead to a less open foreign policy, more in hock to Russia and China. That in turn would alienate international oil companies and raise the odds of a breakdown of the nuclear deal and the return of strict sanctions.
Mr Rouhani has instead promised to get all remaining sanctions lifted, an unlikely goal. Should he win, his second term needs real results – new projects, firm contracts with leading international investors and increasing oil and gas output. Oil money has first to be earned before any of it can appear on ordinary Iranians’ tablecloths.
Robin Mills is the chief executive of Qamar Energy and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
business@thenational.ae
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Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
A%20QUIET%20PLACE
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Company%20Profile
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Diriyah%20project%20at%20a%20glance
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8 traditional Jamaican dishes to try at Kingston 21
- Trench Town Rock: Jamaican-style curry goat served in a pastry basket with a carrot and potato garnish
- Rock Steady Jerk Chicken: chicken marinated for 24 hours and slow-cooked on the grill
- Mento Oxtail: flavoured oxtail stewed for five hours with herbs
- Ackee and salt fish: the national dish of Jamaica makes for a hearty breakfast
- Jamaican porridge: another breakfast favourite, can be made with peanut, cornmeal, banana and plantain
- Jamaican beef patty: a pastry with ground beef filling
- Hellshire Pon di Beach: Fresh fish with pickles
- Out of Many: traditional sweet potato pudding
The specs: 2019 GMC Yukon Denali
Price, base: Dh306,500
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Power: 420hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 621Nm @ 4,100rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.9L / 100km
Racecard
6pm: The Pointe - Conditions (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,400m
6.35pm: Palm West Beach - Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (T) 1,800m
7.10pm: The View at the Palm - Handicap (TB) Dh85,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.45pm: Nakeel Graduate Stakes - Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m
8.20pm: Club Vista Mare - Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,900m
8.55pm: The Palm Fountain - Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,200m
9.30pm: The Palm Tower - Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,600m
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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RESULTS
5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner: Yas Xmnsor, Sean Kirrane (jockey), Khalifa Al Neyadi (trainer)
5.30pm: Falaj Hazza – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Arim W’Rsan, Dane O’Neill, Jaci Wickham
6pm: Al Basrah – Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Kalifano De Ghazal, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi, Helal Al Alawi
6.30pm: Oud Al Touba – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Pharitz Oubai, Sean Kirrane, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm: Sieh bin Amaar – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Oxord, Richard Mullen, Abdalla Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Jebel Hafeet – Conditions (PA) Dh85,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: AF Ramz, Sean Kirrane, Khalifa Al Neyadi
8pm: Al Saad – Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Sea Skimmer, Gabriele Malune, Kareem Ramadan
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Bio
Favourite place in UAE: Al Rams pearling village
What one book should everyone read: Any book written before electricity was invented. When a writer willingly worked under candlelight, you know he/she had a real passion for their craft
Your favourite type of pearl: All of them. No pearl looks the same and each carries its own unique characteristics, like humans
Best time to swim in the sea: When there is enough light to see beneath the surface
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
