In a growth-starved, post-crisis world, many presume that the baton of global economic leadership has already been handed off from the West to the East. The onset of the Asian Century is taken as a given. While such an outcome is entirely possible, I argue in my book The Next Asia that it has not happened yet.
A silver lining of the Great Recession of 2008-2009 is that this transition may actually occur sooner rather than later - yet more by necessity than by design.
The enthusiasm over Asia is certainly understandable on one key level: on the surface, there can be no mistaking the sheer power of the Asian growth miracle. The broad collection of economies that comprise Developing Asia expanded at an 8.3 per cent average annual growth rate from 2001 to 2008, basically three times the 2.8 per cent average growth pace of the rest of the global economy.
Putting it another way, the extraordinary dynamism of Developing Asia added about 1.2 percentage points extra to annualised global growth over the past eight years.
But here is the critical catch: over this same period, Asia has continued to direct an increasing portion of its production to others. The export share of Developing Asia's GDP rose from 35 per cent to 45 per cent over the past decade, whereas the share going to internal private consumption fell to a record low of 45 per cent of pan-regional GDP last year.
As such, the region does not satisfy the most basic precondition of autonomous economic leadership: an economy where production support is dependent increasingly on home markets rather than on external demand.
As the shifting mix of Developing Asia's GDP indicates, the region's growth premium has been driven more by exports, and by the ancillary support of export-led fixed investment in infrastructure and export-producing capacity, than by internal private consumption.
For now, the dreams of Asian-led global leadership are wishful thinking. Developing Asia is still more of a follower than a leader.
Validation of this critical deduction comes from the unmistakable repercussions of the global crisis. In the aftermath of a US-led synchronous downturn in the developed world, every Asian economy either went immediately into recession or experienced a sharp slowdown.
Asia's ever-rising external connectivity made such an outcome inevitable. The Asia consumer, despite all the hype, was not nearly strong enough to forestall this outcome.
This gets to the essence of the Next Asia, the daunting transition from an externally dependent growth model to one that derives increasing support from internal private consumption. Most important of all, it lays bare the recipe for an Asia that can finally stand on its own; an autonomy that can be realised only by drawing support from its own vast population of 3.5 billion people. I remain optimistic that Asia is very much headed in this exciting direction. It is just a question of when, not if.
As is the case for almost all the opportunities of the Next Asia, the key to this transition undoubtedly lies in China. There has, of course, been considerable debate over what it will take to spur a consumer-led growth impetus in China, ultimately the key driver of the Next Asia. There is no silver bullet.
Rural income support is undoubtedly critical, especially for a nation that continues to have close to 60 per cent of its vast population residing in the countryside. So, too, is the need to develop a consumer-products industry, together with a wholesale and retail distribution and service and infrastructure.
But, in my view, the main impediment to Chinese consumption remains excessive levels of precautionary saving. Recent estimates by the Cornell University economist Eswar Prasad put China's household saving rate at 37.5 per cent last year, up a stunning 10 percentage points from the 27.5 per cent reading recorded as recently as 2000. Chinese consumers remain very much predisposed toward saving. Until that changes, a transition that can be enabled only by the funding of a modern social safety net - social security, private pensions, medical and unemployment insurance - China's macro imbalances can only worsen. That would make it all the harder to stay the course of sustainable growth and development.
Consequently, the time is ripe for China to move aggressively in building a modern social safety set as a key pillar of a pro-consumption macro rebalancing strategy. The benefits would be enormous.
Not only would China better insulate itself from future external demand shocks, but also a reduction of excess personal saving would go a long way in cutting China's current account and trade surpluses, thereby soothing potential trade frictions and tempering protectionist risks.
Moreover, the resulting shift in the mix of the economy away from industrial production-led export and investment to more of a services-based consumption dynamic would go a long way in lowering the energy and natural resources content of Chinese GDP.
That, in turn, would lead to a lighter, cleaner strain of Chinese output; extremely helpful for the nation's daunting pollution abatement and environmental remediation objectives.
Two and a half years ago, Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, unwittingly wrote the script for the Next Asia. He warned that while China's economy looked strong on the surface, beneath the surface it was increasingly "unstable, unbalanced, unco-ordinated and ultimately unsustainable". These "four uns," as they were eventually to become known, can be effectively addressed only if China, and the rest of Asia, embraces a new mantra of consumer-led growth.
The Great Recession of 2008-2009 underscores a new urgency to this challenge. It is Asia's wake-up call that the old ways of export-led growth have just about outlived their useful existence.
Asia has long been the world's most exciting growth story. But if its 3.5 billion consumers now play an increasingly greater role in shaping the region's economic development, the excitement will take on an entirely new dimension. The Old Asia was always limited in its capacity as an engine of global growth. Not so with the Next Asia and its potential to culminate in the long-awaited flourishing of the Asian Century.
Stephen Roach is chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia
Business Insights
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Did you know?
Brunch has been around, is some form or another, for more than a century. The word was first mentioned in print in an 1895 edition of Hunter’s Weekly, after making the rounds among university students in Britain. The article, entitled Brunch: A Plea, argued the case for a later, more sociable weekend meal. “By eliminating the need to get up early on Sunday, brunch would make life brighter for Saturday night carousers. It would promote human happiness in other ways as well,” the piece read. “It is talk-compelling. It puts you in a good temper, it makes you satisfied with yourself and your fellow beings, it sweeps away the worries and cobwebs of the week.” More than 100 years later, author Guy Beringer’s words still ring true, especially in the UAE, where brunches are often used to mark special, sociable occasions.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
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Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
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Company%20Profile
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THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
BRIEF SCORES:
Toss: Nepal, chose to field
UAE 153-6: Shaiman (59), Usman (30); Regmi 2-23
Nepal 132-7: Jora 53 not out; Zahoor 2-17
Result: UAE won by 21 runs
Series: UAE lead 1-0
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
Neil Thomson – THE BIO
Family: I am happily married to my wife Liz and we have two children together.
Favourite music: Rock music. I started at a young age due to my father’s influence. He played in an Indian rock band The Flintstones who were once asked by Apple Records to fly over to England to perform there.
Favourite book: I constantly find myself reading The Bible.
Favourite film: The Greatest Showman.
Favourite holiday destination: I love visiting Melbourne as I have family there and it’s a wonderful place. New York at Christmas is also magical.
Favourite food: I went to boarding school so I like any cuisine really.
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The specs
Engine: 2.9-litre, V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: seven-speed PDK dual clutch automatic
Power: 375bhp
Torque: 520Nm
Price: Dh332,800
On sale: now
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
ABU%20DHABI%20CARD
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If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Funchal via Lisbon, with a connecting flight with Air Portugal. Economy class returns cost from Dh3,845 return including taxes.
The trip
The WalkMe app can be downloaded from the usual sources. If you don’t fancy doing the trip yourself, then Explore offers an eight-day levada trails tour from Dh3,050, not including flights.
The hotel
There isn’t another hotel anywhere in Madeira that matches the history and luxury of the Belmond Reid's Palace in Funchal. Doubles from Dh1,400 per night including taxes.
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Brief scores:
Day 2
England: 277 & 19-0
West Indies: 154
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The biog
Age: 59
From: Giza Governorate, Egypt
Family: A daughter, two sons and wife
Favourite tree: Ghaf
Runner up favourite tree: Frankincense
Favourite place on Sir Bani Yas Island: “I love all of Sir Bani Yas. Every spot of Sir Bani Yas, I love it.”
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MO
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Try out the test yourself
Q1 Suppose you had $100 in a savings account and the interest rate was 2 per cent per year. After five years, how much do you think you would have in the account if you left the money to grow?
a) More than $102
b) Exactly $102
c) Less than $102
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer
Q2 Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was 1 per cent per year and inflation was 2 per cent per year. After one year, how much would you be able to buy with the money in this account?
a) More than today
b) Exactly the same as today
c) Less than today
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer
Q4 Do you think that the following statement is true or false? “Buying a single company stock usually provides a safer return than a stock mutual fund.”
a) True
b) False
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer
The “Big Three” financial literacy questions were created by Professors Annamaria Lusardi of the George Washington School of Business and Olivia Mitchell, of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Answers: Q1 More than $102 (compound interest). Q2 Less than today (inflation). Q3 False (diversification).
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Summer special
the pledge
I pledge to uphold the duty of tolerance
I pledge to take a first stand against hate and injustice
I pledge to respect and accept people whose abilities, beliefs and culture are different from my own
I pledge to wish for others what I wish for myself
I pledge to live in harmony with my community
I pledge to always be open to dialogue and forgiveness
I pledge to do my part to create peace for all
I pledge to exercise benevolence and choose kindness in all my dealings with my community
I pledge to always stand up for these values: Zayed's values for tolerance and human fraternity
The language of diplomacy in 1853
Treaty of Peace in Perpetuity Agreed Upon by the Chiefs of the Arabian Coast on Behalf of Themselves, Their Heirs and Successors Under the Mediation of the Resident of the Persian Gulf, 1853
(This treaty gave the region the name “Trucial States”.)
We, whose seals are hereunto affixed, Sheikh Sultan bin Suggar, Chief of Rassool-Kheimah, Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon, Chief of Aboo Dhebbee, Sheikh Saeed bin Buyte, Chief of Debay, Sheikh Hamid bin Rashed, Chief of Ejman, Sheikh Abdoola bin Rashed, Chief of Umm-ool-Keiweyn, having experienced for a series of years the benefits and advantages resulting from a maritime truce contracted amongst ourselves under the mediation of the Resident in the Persian Gulf and renewed from time to time up to the present period, and being fully impressed, therefore, with a sense of evil consequence formerly arising, from the prosecution of our feuds at sea, whereby our subjects and dependants were prevented from carrying on the pearl fishery in security, and were exposed to interruption and molestation when passing on their lawful occasions, accordingly, we, as aforesaid have determined, for ourselves, our heirs and successors, to conclude together a lasting and inviolable peace from this time forth in perpetuity.
Taken from Britain and Saudi Arabia, 1925-1939: the Imperial Oasis, by Clive Leatherdale
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Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
