Banks in Oman and Kuwait stand to benefit from the uptick in oil prices following a three year slump however Oman’s banking sector is more vulnerable than Kuwait and faces a number of risks, according to BMI. Getty Images.
Banks in Oman and Kuwait stand to benefit from the uptick in oil prices following a three year slump however Oman’s banking sector is more vulnerable than Kuwait and faces a number of risks, accordingShow more

Higher oil prices to propel asset and credit growth of Omani and Kuwaiti banks, report says



Banks in Oman and Kuwait stand to benefit from higher oil prices, which will propel private sector credit growth and offset lower government borrowing as fiscal deficits narrow thanks to a recovery in the energy market.

“We believe that asset growth at Kuwaiti commercial banks will continue to gather momentum, owing to rising oil prices and production - a trend we have already seen playing out in 2017 after the sector bottomed in 2016,” BMI Research said in a report. “Higher oil prices will lead to increased liquidity in the system, which bodes well for deposit growth, assisted by rising interest rates to encourage saving.”

Brent oil prices, which are hovering around a three-year high of US$70 a barrel, are helping fuel an upbeat outlook for banks, boosting their liquidity while they also benefit from higher interest rates. Monetary policy of Arabian Gulf countries is closely aligned to US Fed policy as their currencies are pegged to the dollar, except for Kuwait which links its dinar to a basket of currencies dominated by the greenback.

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The collapse of oil prices dented the performance of Gulf banks over the past three years, as the slump sucked liquidity and governments tapped deposits to plug fiscal deficits caused by the shortfall in revenue. Bank profits were squeezed as lending dipped with lenders becoming more cautious in offering loans, particularly to small and medium sized enterprises.

“An expected pick-up in private sector credit [in Kuwait] will more than offset lower government borrowing requirements as higher oil prices result in lower fiscal deficits,” said BMI.

Asset growth in Kuwait will accelerate to 6 per cent in 2018, up from a projected 5 per cent in 2017, which will be driven by private sector credit growth projected to expand 6 per cent in 2018 from 4 per cent in 2017. Deposits are projected to grow 5 per cent in 2018, up from 2 per cent in 2017.

In Oman, asset growth is forecast at 5 per cent in 2018 up from 3 per cent in 2017, while growth in private sector credit lending will reach 7 per cent in 2018 up from 5 per cent in 2017. Deposit growth will reach 6 per cent in 2018, up from 3 per cent in 2017.

Oman’s banking sector, however, is more vulnerable than that of Kuwait, and faces a number of risks, according to BMI.

“Despite this brighter outlook for 2018, we do note several headwinds and risks that will keep the sector's growth [in Oman] below its historic long-term average,” said BMI. “These include competition from rapidly growing Islamic finance institutions, lower oil prices than in the pre-2014 period, and a reliance on external funding.”

While oil prices are at a three-month high, they are unlikely to rise back to the $100-a-barrel level of 2014, keeping Omani government finances under strain and curtailing the government’s ability to help the sector in the event of a shock.

The fledgling Islamic banking industry is also fast competing with the conventional sector since its introduction in 2011, with deposits at Sharia-compliant lenders now comprising 11 per cent of the total.

Oman also suffers from a high loan-to-deposit ratio of 1.09, which shows that lenders rely to a large extent on non-deposit external financing.

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What drives subscription retailing?

Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.

The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.

The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.

The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.

UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.

That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.

Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
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  • Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
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7 — Michael Schumacher (1994, ’95, 2000, ’01 ’02, ’03, ’04)

7 — Lewis Hamilton (2008, ’14,’15, ’17, ’18, ’19, ’20)

5 — Juan Manuel Fangio (1951, ’54, ’55, ’56, ’57)

4 — Alain Prost (1985, ’86, ’89, ’93)

4 — Sebastian Vettel (2010, ’11, ’12, ’13)

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Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

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How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
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TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:

- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools

- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say

- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance

- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs

- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills

- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month

- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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