Frustrated by Brexit negotiations, angry at Brussels or simply afraid of the future, ordinary Britons and other Europeans are already taking life-changing decisions a year before Britain leaves the EU.
Office workers, farmers and radio hosts are taking on new nationalities, relocating their businesses or looking forward to lucrative alternative trade deals, as politicians struggle to come up with a plan.
"Other people my age, they are starting settling down, they make more long-term plans with their lives," says 32-year-old Matt Davies, a British expat in Madrid.
"It's very difficult for me to plan anything beyond March 2019 because you just have no idea what is going to happen," the call centre worker says.
British and EU diplomats resumed negotiations in Brussels in February and are hoping to agree this month on a post-Brexit transition period.
But the shape of future relations between Britain and the EU is far from certain and the British government is deeply divided over how to proceed.
That uncertainty is even more pressing for the three million EU nationals living in the UK, many of whom are now questioning their future there.
Brexit affects "every part of our lives", says radio presenter Gosia Prochal, one of nearly a million Polish citizens living in Britain.
The 25-year-old is based in Peterborough, a city in eastern England that has seen a sharp rise in immigration in recent years and voted 61 per cent in favour of leaving the EU in the 2016 referendum.
AFP spoke to five EU nationals and five Britons in the UK, as well as five British citizens living in continental Europe about their hopes and fears ahead of the expected Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
William Lynch, from Northern Ireland, farms oysters in Lough Foyle, says he faces having to move his business two kilometres downstream to the Republic of Ireland - across a currently invisible boundary - if customs tariffs come in after Brexit.
"I can't really leave it till the last minute to do that," the 63-year-old ex-fireman says.
The oysters he lays down this year, largely for export to France, will not be harvested until after the UK has left the EU.
"I can't work with uncertainty," he says.
Brexit-backing sheep farmer Pip Simpson says he felt Brussels was making the negotiations "as awkward as possible" to deter other countries from leaving the bloc.
The 51-year-old voted to leave the European Union in the June 2016 referendum but now faces the prospect of losing the EU subsidies his farm relies on.
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Polls in recent months have shown a slight increase in the number of people who, in hindsight, think Britain was wrong to vote to leave the EU, but experts say the difference from the referendum is negligible.
"The country was divided down the middle 18 months ago and not a great deal has changed," political scientist John Curtice told a conference this month.
The discord has left some Britons living in the EU feeling alienated.
Business intelligence consultant Andrew Ketley, 41, who moved to Munich in February last year, is putting down roots.
"We don't want to live in a country which is tearing itself apart," he says.
Barnaby Harward, 44, an editor who has lived in Warsaw with his Polish wife since 2005, is applying for Polish citizenship and ending thoughts of moving back home.
"The whole Brexit thing has put me off. It kind of made me feel that my country is not what I thought it was," he says.
EU citizens in Britain are taking similar decisions.
Gabriela Szomoru, 32, a Romanian who has lived all her adult life in Kent, south-east England, is now applying for British nationality, as well as UK accountancy qualifications.
"England is my home now," the salad-farm bookkeeper says.
For people in business, clarity cannot come soon enough.
Richard Stone, 44, the chief executive of London retail stockbrokers Share, wants Britain to sign trade agreements with the growth markets of China and India.
"It is important that we do a deal, and relatively quickly in terms of clarifying and giving business certainty," says the Leave voter, speaking in a personal capacity.
"I am reasonably optimistic we will get there, but it will be a painful process."
Since the Brexit vote, Mr Stone's business, all done in sterling, has been unruffled.
But French wine importer Laurent Faure, 50, who owns Le Vieux Comptoir bistrot in central London, says the plunge of the pound due to the Brexit vote has wiped out his profit margin.
"You have to envisage doing something else - if necessary, leaving England," the former lawyer says.
"It would be the last resort."
Dimitri Scarlato, 40, an Italian composer who lectures at the Royal College of Music in London, says Brexit has changed his perception of Britain - and of himself.
"The only positive outcome of Brexit - that made me feel really European. I really gained my sense of being European."
The biog
Name: Younis Al Balooshi
Nationality: Emirati
Education: Doctorate degree in forensic medicine at the University of Bonn
Hobbies: Drawing and reading books about graphic design
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Company%20Profile
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
TOURNAMENT INFO
Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Jurassic%20Park
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Background: Chemical Weapons
Gender pay parity on track in the UAE
The UAE has a good record on gender pay parity, according to Mercer's Total Remuneration Study.
"In some of the lower levels of jobs women tend to be paid more than men, primarily because men are employed in blue collar jobs and women tend to be employed in white collar jobs which pay better," said Ted Raffoul, career products leader, Mena at Mercer. "I am yet to see a company in the UAE – particularly when you are looking at a blue chip multinationals or some of the bigger local companies – that actively discriminates when it comes to gender on pay."
Mr Raffoul said most gender issues are actually due to the cultural class, as the population is dominated by Asian and Arab cultures where men are generally expected to work and earn whereas women are meant to start a family.
"For that reason, we see a different gender gap. There are less women in senior roles because women tend to focus less on this but that’s not due to any companies having a policy penalising women for any reasons – it’s a cultural thing," he said.
As a result, Mr Raffoul said many companies in the UAE are coming up with benefit package programmes to help working mothers and the career development of women in general.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20Profile
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
