New limits on carbon pollution likely to be agreed on this year will reduce the world's need for oil more quickly than previously forecast, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
To limit global warming to an average increase of 2° Celsius, global consumption of fossil fuels will have to peak within 10 years, said the IEA, a Paris-based group of energy consuming nations.
The new projections show efforts to curb carbon emissions could have a significant effect on demand for the UAE's most important export.
But the IEA also predicts that under a strict climate regime, oil revenues in OPEC member states will be four times higher by the end of 2030 than they were in the past 22 years, because of the combined effect of higher oil prices and increased OPEC output.
The study, released as negotiators gather in Bangkok to find common ground on a new climate change treaty, shows an "energy revolution" is feasible, said Yvo de Boer, the executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
"The global economy does not suffer much from the costs incurred," he said in a preface to the report. "The cost of addressing climate change is manageable. The cost of not doing so is unaffordable."
World leaders hope to reach a final deal at a summit in Copenhagen in December.
Under the proposals offered by the IEA in which the proportion of carbon in the atmosphere is kept to the benchmark 450 parts per million, world oil consumption in 2030 would be 15.3 million barrels per day (bpd) less than in a business-as-usual scenario. This is equivalent to almost 20 per cent of current global oil demand.
The world would also increase energy investment by US$10.5 trillion (Dh38.56tn) over the 20-year period to boost energy efficiency, substitute coal-fired power stations with gas and renewables, and make electric cars a mainstay of the global transport fleet.
The IEA will not release its estimates for long-term oil demand until next month, but last year it predicted consumption in 2030 would reach 106 million bpd if large emission cuts are not implemented. The world currently uses almost 84 million bpd.
In an effort to demonstrate that a climate change treaty will not hurt oil exporters, the IEA predicts OPEC oil and gas revenues would rise to $23tn by the end of 2030. The sum is lower than OPEC's revenues under a business-as-usual scenario, but four times higher than members' total revenues since 1985.
Officials from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries have called for economic aid from industrialised countries to help them to adapt to a future where oil is no longer the world's key energy source.
Such efforts are unlikely to receive the support of western leaders, since OPEC states have large reserves to invest in their economies, said Mari Luomi, a Gulf climate expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki.
"Economic assistance from the industrialised countries is politically and morally impossible, as there are poor developing states that are much more in need of assistance," she said.
The IEA's scenario calls for carbon emissions from some of the largest developing countries including the Middle East, Russia and China to peak by 2020, but says primary responsibility for reductions lies with industrialised countries.
A dispute over which countries should bear the burden of emissions cuts has been the key issue in global climate change talks. Leaders from developing states have resisted specific emissions targets, saying industrialised states are responsible for the bulk of carbon now in the atmosphere.
Western leaders, however, say their own emissions cuts will be ineffective without big contributions from fast-developing states like China and India.
The silver lining in yesterday's forecast was that the recession has bought more time for reducing emissions. Emissions in 2020 will be 5 per cent lower than before the onset of the crisis, the IEA said.
"By reducing emissions, the financial and economic crisis has created a window of opportunity," Mr de Boer said.
cstanton@thenational.ae
CHELSEA SQUAD
Arrizabalaga, Bettinelli, Rudiger, Christensen, Silva, Chalobah, Sarr, Azpilicueta, James, Kenedy, Alonso, Jorginho, Kante, Kovacic, Saul, Barkley, Ziyech, Pulisic, Mount, Hudson-Odoi, Werner, Havertz, Lukaku.
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
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No more lice
Defining head lice
Pediculus humanus capitis are tiny wingless insects that feed on blood from the human scalp. The adult head louse is up to 3mm long, has six legs, and is tan to greyish-white in colour. The female lives up to four weeks and, once mature, can lay up to 10 eggs per day. These tiny nits firmly attach to the base of the hair shaft, get incubated by body heat and hatch in eight days or so.
Identifying lice
Lice can be identified by itching or a tickling sensation of something moving within the hair. One can confirm that a person has lice by looking closely through the hair and scalp for nits, nymphs or lice. Head lice are most frequently located behind the ears and near the neckline.
Treating lice at home
Head lice must be treated as soon as they are spotted. Start by checking everyone in the family for them, then follow these steps. Remove and wash all clothing and bedding with hot water. Apply medicine according to the label instructions. If some live lice are still found eight to 12 hours after treatment, but are moving more slowly than before, do not re-treat. Comb dead and remaining live lice out of the hair using a fine-toothed comb.
After the initial treatment, check for, comb and remove nits and lice from hair every two to three days. Soak combs and brushes in hot water for 10 minutes.Vacuum the floor and furniture, particularly where the infested person sat or lay.
Courtesy Dr Vishal Rajmal Mehta, specialist paediatrics, RAK Hospital
The Good Liar
Starring: Helen Mirren, Ian McKellen
Directed by: Bill Condon
Three out of five stars
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Summer special
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
The Details
Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Company%20Profile
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'Ghostbusters: From Beyond'
Director: Jason Reitman
Starring: Paul Rudd, Carrie Coon, Finn Wolfhard, Mckenna Grace
Rating: 2/5
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Black Panther
Dir: Ryan Coogler
Starring: Chadwick Boseman, Michael B Jordan, Lupita Nyong'o
Five stars
The Dictionary of Animal Languages
Heidi Sopinka
Scribe
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
