A successful effort to limit global warming through cuts in carbon emissions will slow global consumption of oil and hold down crude prices over the next two decades, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says.
Oil prices in 2020 would be US$90 a barrel under a scenario in which the rise in global temperatures is limited to 2°C, the IEA, a group of 28 energy importing nations based in Paris, said in a forecast released yesterday. Under a business-as-usual scenario in which no action is taken, prices would average $100 a barrel.
Lower prices and slower growth in oil consumption translate into a US$4 trillion (Dh14.69 trillion) reduction in oil export earnings by OPEC countries compared with the reference case.
"Cumulative OPEC oil-export revenues in 2008-2030 are 16 per cent less than in the reference scenario, but are still four times their level in real terms of the previous 23 years," the IEA said.
The IEA issued its analysis one month before world leaders gather in Copenhagen to hammer out a new climate change treaty. The forecast argues that all countries, including OPEC members, would ultimately benefit from supporting such an agreement.
The silver lining for OPEC countries is a reduced investment burden in new oil projects: member states will need to increase output by 11.4 million barrels per day (bpd) under the scenario in which emissions are cut, compared with an increase of 17.5 million bpd under the reference scenario.
Much of that new capacity will replace declines in output from older fields in the West. "The economics of OPEC production are little affected by the change in oil prices," said the IEA, noting OPEC's market share would increase to 55 per cent compared with 44 per cent today.
Under the scenario in which a climate treaty is adopted, supply from OPEC nations will still increase by a faster rate than the period since 1980, the IEA said.
The lower burden on OPEC stems from reduced demand, as oil consumption is forecast to rise an average of 0.2 per cent under a climate change treaty, compared with 1 per cent in the reference case. The bulk of the reduction will come from advances in the transport sector, including greater use of electric cars and improved engine efficiency.
Overall, global oil demand will rise by only 6 million bpd from current levels to 91 million bpd by 2030, the IEA said. In a business-as-usual case, consumption that year reaches 105 million bpd.
New demand will come from developing nations such as China and India as consumption in industrialised countries is expected to fall by 17 per cent.
The IEA forecast was timed to push leaders to come to an agreement in Copenhagen as negotiators attempt to convince reluctant politicians in the US and elsewhere that benefits from an expensive shift away from fossil fuels outweigh the costs.
"A deal at Copenhagen is vital," said Nobuo Tanaka, the executive director of he IEA, at the launch of its annual World Energy Outlook. "Governments must reach clear agreements to improve efficiency and develop alternative forms of energy, including nuclear, which do not emit so much greenhouse gas."
In the agency scenario, China would reduce emissions by 1 gigatonne, placing the country "at the forefront of global efforts to combat climate change".
The report warned that for each year of delay in implementing a treaty, the world would need to spend an additional $500 billion to cut emissions.
The economic crisis has bought negotiators a little additional time: world energy demand will be 4.5 per cent lower in 2015 than was forecast last year and 1.3 per cent lower in 2030 because of the effects of the financial crisis, the IEA said.
@Email:cstanton@thenational.ae
Retirement funds heavily invested in equities at a risky time
Pension funds in growing economies in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have a sharply higher percentage of assets parked in stocks, just at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail markets.
Retirement money managers in 14 geographies now allocate 40 per cent of their assets to equities, an 8 percentage-point climb over the past five years, according to a Mercer survey released last week that canvassed government, corporate and mandatory pension funds with almost $5 trillion in assets under management. That compares with about 25 per cent for pension funds in Europe.
The escalating trade spat between the US and China has heightened fears that stocks are ripe for a downturn. With tensions mounting and outcomes driven more by politics than economics, the S&P 500 Index will be on course for a “full-scale bear market” without Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, Citigroup’s global macro strategy team said earlier this week.
The increased allocation to equities by growth-market pension funds has come at the expense of fixed-income investments, which declined 11 percentage points over the five years, according to the survey.
Hong Kong funds have the highest exposure to equities at 66 per cent, although that’s been relatively stable over the period. Japan’s equity allocation jumped 13 percentage points while South Korea’s increased 8 percentage points.
The money managers are also directing a higher portion of their funds to assets outside of their home countries. On average, foreign stocks now account for 49 per cent of respondents’ equity investments, 4 percentage points higher than five years ago, while foreign fixed-income exposure climbed 7 percentage points to 23 per cent. Funds in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan are among those seeking greater diversification in stocks and fixed income.
• Bloomberg
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fasset%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2019%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mohammad%20Raafi%20Hossain%2C%20Daniel%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%242.45%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2086%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-series%20B%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Investcorp%2C%20Liberty%20City%20Ventures%2C%20Fatima%20Gobi%20Ventures%2C%20Primal%20Capital%2C%20Wealthwell%20Ventures%2C%20FHS%20Capital%2C%20VN2%20Capital%2C%20local%20family%20offices%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Indian origin executives leading top technology firms
Sundar Pichai
Chief executive, Google and Alphabet
Satya Nadella
Chief executive, Microsoft
Ajaypal Singh Banga
President and chief executive, Mastercard
Shantanu Narayen
Chief executive, chairman, and president, Adobe
Indra Nooyi
Board of directors, Amazon and former chief executive, PepsiCo
Men's football draw
Group A: UAE, Spain, South Africa, Jamaica
Group B: Bangladesh, Serbia, Korea
Group C: Bharat, Denmark, Kenya, USA
Group D: Oman, Austria, Rwanda
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Fixtures:
Thursday:
Hatta v Al Jazira, 4.55pm
Al Wasl v Dibba, 7.45pm
Friday:
Al Dhafra v Al Nasr, 5.05pm
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Al Wahda, 7.45pm
Saturday:
Ajman v Emirates, 4.55pm
Al Ain v Sharjah, 7.45pm
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
Friday's schedule in Madrid
Men's quarter-finals
Novak Djokivic (1) v Marin Cilic (9) from 2pm UAE time
Roger Federer (4) v Dominic Thiem (5) from 7pm
Stefanos Tsitsipas (8) v Alexander Zverev (3) from 9.30pm
Stan Wawrinka v Rafael Nadal (2) from 11.30pm
Women's semi-finals
Belinda Bencic v Simona Halep (3) from 4.30pm
Sloane Stephens (8) v Kiki Bertens (7) from 10pm
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
The squad traveling to Brazil:
Faisal Al Ketbi, Ibrahim Al Hosani, Khalfan Humaid Balhol, Khalifa Saeed Al Suwaidi, Mubarak Basharhil, Obaid Salem Al Nuaimi, Saeed Juma Al Mazrouei, Saoud Abdulla Al Hammadi, Taleb Al Kirbi, Yahia Mansour Al Hammadi, Zayed Al Kaabi, Zayed Saif Al Mansoori, Saaid Haj Hamdou, Hamad Saeed Al Nuaimi. Coaches Roberto Lima and Alex Paz.
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE fixtures:
Men
Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final
Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final
Sanchez's club career
2005-2006: Cobreloa
2006-2011 Udinese
2006-2007 Colo-Colo (on loan)
2007-2008 River Plate (on loan)
2011-2014 Barcelona
2014–Present Arsenal
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
British Grand Prix free practice times in the third and final session at Silverstone on Saturday (top five):
1. Lewis Hamilton (GBR/Mercedes) 1:28.063 (18 laps)
2. Sebastian Vettel (GER/Ferrari) 1:28.095 (14)
3. Valtteri Bottas (FIN/Mercedes) 1:28.137 (20)
4. Kimi Raikkonen (FIN/Ferrari) 1:28.732 (15)
5. Nico Hulkenberg (GER/Renault) 1:29.480 (14)
DUBAI SEVENS 2018 DRAW
Gulf Men’s League
Pool A – Dubai Exiles, Dubai Hurricanes, Bahrain, Dubai Sports City Eagles
Pool B – Jebel Ali Dragons, Abu Dhabi Saracens, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Al Ain Amblers
Gulf Men’s Open
Pool A – Bahrain Firbolgs, Arabian Knights, Yalla Rugby, Muscat
Pool B – Amman Citadel, APB Dubai Sharks, Jebel Ali Dragons 2, Saudi Rugby
Pool C – Abu Dhabi Harlequins 2, Roberts Construction, Dubai Exiles 2
Pool D – Dubai Tigers, UAE Shaheen, Sharjah Wanderers, Amman Citadel 2
Gulf U19 Boys
Pool A – Deira International School, Dubai Hurricanes, British School Al Khubairat, Jumeirah English Speaking School B
Pool B – Dubai English Speaking College 2, Jumeirah College, Dubai College A, Abu Dhabi Harlequins 2
Pool C – Bahrain Colts, Al Yasmina School, DESC, DC B
Pool D – Al Ain Amblers, Repton Royals, Dubai Exiles, Gems World Academy Dubai
Pool E – JESS A, Abu Dhabi Sharks, Abu Dhabi Harlequins 1, EC
Gulf Women
Pool A – Kuwait Scorpions, Black Ruggers, Dubai Sports City Eagles, Dubai Hurricanes 2
Pool B – Emirates Firebirds, Sharjah Wanderers, RAK Rides, Beirut Aconites
Pool C – Dubai Hurricanes, Emirates Firebirds 2, Abu Dhabi Saracens, Transforma Panthers
Pool D – AUC Wolves, Dubai Hawks, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Al Ain Amblers
Gulf U19 Girls
Pool A – Dubai Exiles, BSAK, DESC, Al Maha
Pool B – Arabian Knights, Dubai Hurricanes, Al Ain Amblers, Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Notable Yas events in 2017/18
October 13-14 KartZone (complimentary trials)
December 14-16 The Gulf 12 Hours Endurance race
March 5 Yas Marina Circuit Karting Enduro event
March 8-9 UAE Rotax Max Challenge
Indoor Cricket World Cup Dubai 2017
Venue Insportz, Dubai; Admission Free
Fixtures - Open Men 2pm: India v New Zealand, Malaysia v UAE, Singapore v South Africa, Sri Lanka v England; 8pm: Australia v Singapore, India v Sri Lanka, England v Malaysia, New Zealand v South Africa
Fixtures - Open Women Noon: New Zealand v England, UAE v Australia; 6pm: England v South Africa, New Zealand v Australia
'The Batman'
Stars:Robert Pattinson
Director:Matt Reeves
Rating: 5/5
Fight card
- Aliu Bamidele Lasisi (Nigeria) beat Artid Vamrungauea (Thailand) POINTS
- Julaidah Abdulfatah (Saudi Arabia) beat Martin Kabrhel (Czech Rep) POINTS
- Kem Ljungquist (Denmark) beat Mourad Omar (Egypt) TKO
- Michael Lawal (UK) beat Tamas Kozma (Hungary) KO
- Zuhayr Al Qahtani (Saudi Arabia) beat Mohammed Mahmoud (UK) POINTS
- Darren Surtees (UK) beat Kane Baker (UK) KO
- Chris Eubank Jr (UK) beat JJ McDonagh (Ireland) TKO
- Callum Smith (UK) beat George Groves (UK) KO
FINAL LEADERBOARD
1. Jordan Spieth (USA) 65 69 65 69 - 12-under-par
2. Matt Kuchar (USA) 65 71 66 69 - 9-under
3. Li Haotong (CHN) 69 73 69 63 - 6-under
T4. Rory McIlroy (NIR) 71 68 69 67 - 5-under
T4. Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP) 67 73 67 68 - 5-under
T6. Marc Leishman (AUS) 69 76 66 65 - 4-under
T6. Matthew Southgate (ENG) 72 72 67 65 - 4-under
T6. Brooks Koepka (USA) 65 72 68 71 - 4-under
T6. Branden Grace (RSA) 70 74 62 70 - 4-under
T6. Alexander Noren (SWE) 68 72 69 67 - 4-under