The question of Opec action to address the oil glut has been moot for nearly a year, as the group's Saudi-led policy to allow lower prices to squeeze out higher-cost production seemed pretty well set in stone.
But that question is back on the agenda after the late-summer meltdown in China’s financial markets, which has raised the prospect of slower oil demand growth and an even longer period of financial pain for oil-dependent countries.
The question, however, remains as vexing as ever: can the producer group agree to some type of short-term fix that could stabilise prices at a higher level without risking the longer-term aim of forcing out higher-cost producers?
Some analysts think the combination of the deal to ease sanctions on Iran and the growing problems in China’s economy will provide enough cover for Saudi Arabia to reverse its policy and find a way to cut output without losing face.
“The root of the problem is that the people running Saudi Arabia represent an older generation that have not realised that the oil market has changed dramatically and that they cannot control it as they did in previous decades,” said Nick Butler of King’s College London, a former head of strategy at BP. “They wanted to force other people out of the market and didn’t realise shale producers in the US have managed to cut costs and keep going,” he said in a recent BBC discussion.
The latest data showed that US oil production has slowed down since last year’s oil price slump.
Last week, the US government’s Energy Information Administration said June oil production was about 9.3 million barrels per day (bpd), down 100,000 bpd from May and 250,000 bpd below the agency’s previous estimate after figures were revised using its new survey-based method.
The sharp decline in the rate of rigs in use in US oilfields does seem to have had the effect of curbing supply growth.
But the quandary for Saudi Arabia and Opec is that it has become increasingly apparent that, while lower prices might have forced a cut in US production, that can be quickly reversed.
"The problem is that if the oil price does start to go up, you have the so-called fracklog," said Paul Stevens, an analyst at Chatham House. As he explained it, the fracklog refers to a technique US drillers use now in which they partially drill a large number of wells and leave them idle while prices are low. They can bring the wells back very quickly when prices rise again.
“Some [Saudi policymakers] are realising now that they can’t play the market as they hoped to,” Mr Butler said. “I suspect they will go back to something like the old model and try to organise a cut in production over the next few months.”
Mr Stevens agrees that US oil industry flexibility, coupled with the prospect of additional Iranian supply, has given Saudi Arabia the cover to discuss a curb in Opec output in the run-in to the next scheduled ministerial meeting in early December – or even before that if oil markets weaken sharply in the interim.
Saudi Arabia’s policymakers may now realise that they cannot just rely on a policy of aggressive market share defence and expect the high-cost producers to balance the market eventually. The Chinese financial meltdown has shown that other factors can unexpectedly extend the period of oil-price pain for oil-dependent economies and put them under too much strain.
An irony of the Opec policy is that the pressure it puts on its weaker members is likely to lead to a ratcheting up of internal tensions and political strife, thus increasing risks and lifting oil prices.
As Richard Cochrane of IHS points out, the fighting in Libya over the past year “has undermined oil production, creating a financial crisis and probably rendering the country bankrupt by 2017”.
Internal strife is also increasing in Algeria as its economy struggles to deal with lower oil prices. The country’s energy minister, Salah Khebri, last month reportedly wrote to Opec urging a change in strategy. The country requires oil prices close to US$121 a barrel for its budget to break even.
World benchmark North Sea Brent prices have averaged just over $57 a barrel this year, and fell to an average of $48 last month as the China crisis took hold.
The biggest battle within Opec, however, will be between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The latter’s oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, has repeatedly warned this year that Iran plans to recapture its lost market share as soon as sanctions are lifted.
Iran’s ability to ramp up production is a highly variable factor. As a new analysis by the AT Kearney consultancy notes, the estimates of Iran’s ability to raise production over the next 18 months to two years vary from 300,000 bpd to 800,000 bpd.
But as Saudi Arabia and Iran dominate the potential spare capacity within Opec, that may give them scope to strike a deal to share the bulk of the burden of output cuts.
Even just the appearance of a deal to restrain output might be enough to get oil prices on to a higher plateau next year. As Tom James, an analyst at Navitas Resources, pointed out, China continues to hit new record-high levels of crude oil buying, despite the problems in its currency and equity markets.
amcauley@thenational.ae
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Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
As You Were
Liam Gallagher
(Warner Bros)
Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Tuesday results:
- Singapore bt Malaysia by 29 runs
- UAE bt Oman by 13 runs
- Hong Kong bt Nepal by 3 wickets
Final:
Thursday, UAE v Hong Kong
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
8 traditional Jamaican dishes to try at Kingston 21
- Trench Town Rock: Jamaican-style curry goat served in a pastry basket with a carrot and potato garnish
- Rock Steady Jerk Chicken: chicken marinated for 24 hours and slow-cooked on the grill
- Mento Oxtail: flavoured oxtail stewed for five hours with herbs
- Ackee and salt fish: the national dish of Jamaica makes for a hearty breakfast
- Jamaican porridge: another breakfast favourite, can be made with peanut, cornmeal, banana and plantain
- Jamaican beef patty: a pastry with ground beef filling
- Hellshire Pon di Beach: Fresh fish with pickles
- Out of Many: traditional sweet potato pudding
The%20Secret%20Kingdom%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Matt%20Drummond%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlyla%20Browne%2C%20Alice%20Parkinson%2C%20Sam%20Everingham%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Four%20scenarios%20for%20Ukraine%20war
%3Cp%3E1.%20Protracted%20but%20less%20intense%20war%20(60%25%20likelihood)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20Negotiated%20end%20to%20the%20conflict%20(30%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E3.%20Russia%20seizes%20more%20territory%20(20%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.%20Ukraine%20pushes%20Russia%20back%20(10%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3EForecast%20by%20Economist%20Intelligence%20Unit%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Fly Etihad or Emirates from the UAE to Moscow from 2,763 return per person return including taxes.
Where to stay
Trips on the Golden Eagle Trans-Siberian cost from US$16,995 (Dh62,414) per person, based on two sharing.
Company Profile
Founder: Omar Onsi
Launched: 2018
Employees: 35
Financing stage: Seed round ($12 million)
Investors: B&Y, Phoenician Funds, M1 Group, Shorooq Partners
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Harry%20%26%20Meghan
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELiz%20Garbus%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Duke%20and%20Duchess%20of%20Sussex%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Healthcare spending to double to $2.2 trillion rupees
Launched a 641billion-rupee federal health scheme
Allotted 200 billion rupees for the recapitalisation of state-run banks
Around 1.75 trillion rupees allotted for privatisation and stake sales in state-owned assets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Profile Periscope Media
Founder: Smeetha Ghosh, one co-founder (anonymous)
Launch year: 2020
Employees: four – plans to add another 10 by July 2021
Financing stage: $250,000 bootstrap funding, approaching VC firms this year
Investors: Co-founders
if you go
The flights
Emirates offer flights to Buenos Aires from Dubai, via Rio De Janeiro from around Dh6,300. emirates.com
Seeing the games
Tangol sell experiences across South America and generally have good access to tickets for most of the big teams in Buenos Aires: Boca Juniors, River Plate, and Independiente. Prices from Dh550 and include pick up and drop off from your hotel in the city. tangol.com
Staying there
Tangol will pick up tourists from any hotel in Buenos Aires, but after the intensity of the game, the Faena makes for tranquil, upmarket accommodation. Doubles from Dh1,110. faena.com
Results
Women finals: 48kg - Urantsetseg Munkhbat (MGL) bt Distria Krasniqi (KOS); 52kg - Odette Guiffrida (ITA) bt Majlinda Kelmendi (KOS); 57kg - Nora Gjakova (KOS) bt Anastasiia Konkina (Rus)
Men’s finals: 60kg - Amiran Papinashvili (GEO) bt Francisco Garrigos (ESP); 66kg - Vazha Margvelashvili (Geo) bt Yerlan Serikzhanov (KAZ)
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Five personal finance podcasts from The National
To help you get started, tune into these Pocketful of Dirham episodes
·
Balance is essential to happiness, health and wealth
·
What is a portfolio stress test?
·
What are NFTs and why are auction houses interested?
·
How gamers are getting rich by earning cryptocurrencies
·
Should you buy or rent a home in the UAE?
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
What is THAAD?
It is considered to be the US' most superior missile defence system.
Production:
It was first created in 2008.
Speed:
THAAD missiles can travel at over Mach 8, so fast that it is hypersonic.
Abilities:
THAAD is designed to take out projectiles, namely ballistic missiles, as they are on their downward trajectory towards their target, otherwise known as the "terminal phase".
Purpose:
To protect high-value strategic sites, such as airfields or population centres.
Range:
THAAD can target projectiles both inside and outside of the Earth's atmosphere, at an altitude of 93 miles above the Earth's surface.
Creators:
Lockheed Martin was originally granted the contract to develop the system in 1992. Defence company Raytheon sub-contracts to develop other major parts of the system, such as ground-based radar.
UAE and THAAD:
In 2011, the UAE became the first country outside of the US to buy two THAAD missile defence systems. It then deployed them in 2016, becoming the first Gulf country to do so.
IPL 2018 FINAL
Sunrisers Hyderabad 178-6 (20 ovs)
Chennai Super Kings 181-2 (18.3 ovs)
Chennai win by eight wickets
Dubai World Cup Carnival Card:
6.30pm: Handicap US$135,000 (Turf) 1,200m
7.05pm: Handicap $135,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
7.40pm: Zabeel Turf Listed $175,000 (T) 2,000m
8.15pm: Cape Verdi Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,600m
8.50pm: Handicap $135,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,600m
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Personalities on the Plate: The Lives and Minds of Animals We Eat
Barbara J King, University of Chicago Press
More from Armen Sarkissian
THE LOWDOWN
Photograph
Rating: 4/5
Produced by: Poetic License Motion Pictures; RSVP Movies
Director: Ritesh Batra
Cast: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Sanya Malhotra, Farrukh Jaffar, Deepak Chauhan, Vijay Raaz
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
SPIDER-MAN%3A%20ACROSS%20THE%20SPIDER-VERSE
%3Cp%3EDirectors%3A%20Joaquim%20Dos%20Santos%2C%20Kemp%20Powers%2C%20Justin%20K.%20Thompson%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Shameik%20Moore%2C%20Hailee%20Steinfeld%2C%20Oscar%20Isaac%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Shakuntala Devi'
Starring: Vidya Balan, Sanya Malhotra
Director: Anu Menon
Rating: Three out of five stars
The Bio
Name: Lynn Davison
Profession: History teacher at Al Yasmina Academy, Abu Dhabi
Children: She has one son, Casey, 28
Hometown: Pontefract, West Yorkshire in the UK
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite Author: CJ Sansom
Favourite holiday destination: Bali
Favourite food: A Sunday roast
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
PSA DUBAI WORLD SERIES FINALS LINE-UP
Men’s:
Mohamed El Shorbagy (EGY)
Ali Farag (EGY)
Simon Rosner (GER)
Tarek Momen (EGY)
Miguel Angel Rodriguez (COL)
Gregory Gaultier (FRA)
Karim Abdel Gawad (EGY)
Nick Matthew (ENG)
Women's:
Nour El Sherbini (EGY)
Raneem El Welily (EGY)
Nour El Tayeb (EGY)
Laura Massaro (ENG)
Joelle King (NZE)
Camille Serme (FRA)
Nouran Gohar (EGY)
Sarah-Jane Perry (ENG)
Profile of Whizkey
Date founded: 04 November 2017
Founders: Abdulaziz AlBlooshi and Harsh Hirani
Based: Dubai, UAE
Number of employees: 10
Sector: AI, software
Cashflow: Dh2.5 Million
Funding stage: Series A
The Gandhi Murder
- 71 - Years since the death of MK Gandhi, also christened India's Father of the Nation
- 34 - Nationalities featured in the film The Gandhi Murder
- 7 - million dollars, the film's budget
