Coming to grips with the financial balance of terror



The Gulf's Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) are coming under pressure of a different sort due to the tumultuous events in the world's financial markets. The success of the rescue of the US financial system probably depends as much on the central banks of China and the Middle East as on the US Congress and Federal Reserve. This is a defining moment in the world's economic history, with far reaching implication in terms of emerging geopolitical power. The growing importance of foreign cash represents the triumph of globalisation of financial services, with the lowering of barriers enabling capital to flow easily - but allowing financial panic to spread just as easily. The current imbalance between those countries in need of liquidity and those with surpluses, however, lays the seed of what the former US Treasury secretary, Larry Summers, crudely but correctly calls "the balance of financial terror". Mr Summers, who served under the former president Bill Clinton, was referring to the relationship between the US and its newer creditors such as China, the Middle East and Russia. Foreign countries now own nearly a quarter - some US$2.6 trillion (Dh9.5tn) - of the total US debt. They also own more than $14tn in US assets - that is more than the total US national output. This is now a top concern in Washington, but one which cuts both ways as the US does not want to drive away the geese laying the golden eggs. A big reason the Fed and Treasury stepped in to rescue the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was to reassure China, which holds roughly $1tn in US debt, that US securities were safe. History can be cruel indeed for financial superpowers. Just 10 years after the US oversaw the financial rescue of Asian nations, the country now risks becoming the world's largest subprime borrower. This change of fortune has been hard to swallow politically. And what of the foreign creditors? The US, despite current woes, is still the world's sole military superpower, and the US currency is still dominant. The latter is important even if foreign holdings of US debt grow, as is likely. Foreign governments did not fail to notice that despite wrangling between Congress and the administration, a bill was finally passed to cover all American financial institutions in a uniform manner, while financial chaos in Europe was partly due to the go-it-alone decisions of many sovereign states, with little initial co-ordination. This makes the euro zone still a secondary financial superpower to the US. Even so, foreign lenders have a great deal of sway. If they were to dump US government debt - or be unwilling to buy more - the interest rates needed to attract buyers of Treasuries would soar. The already fragile US economy would absorb yet another hit. The Chinese, and others in the Gulf, have voiced growing dismay about the outlook for the dollar. The introduction of an additional $700 billion in debt might drive the currency's value down further, at least in the short term, but passing that emergency measure was a bitter pill that had to be swallowed as every state faced a financial doomsday meltdown scenario if they did not pull together. The day of reckoning had to be postponed for now, but it will be a long time before we are told that a chief executive of a bank will earn more than $300 million over eight years and still think it is fair compensation, as the chief executive of bankrupt Lehman Brothers admitted to an astonished Congress. In the short term, China, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and other big foreign holders of Treasury bills are unlikely to take anti-dollar measures precisely because they own so much US debt. To the extent the dollar declines, so does the value of those nations' holdings. Mr Summers was spot on when he called the situation "the financial balance of terror", although the choice of words is unfortunate, as these foreign benefactors and saviours of the US would rather be seen as saviours than financial terrorists. But it is naive to assume that this "balance of terror", with its implied threat of bringing the whole house down if the SWFs don't play the game, will protect US interests indefinitely. If they decide not to buy any more of the new debt, or dump existing debt, then the outlook for the US is truly dire. Interest rates will have to be pushed up again to attract new investors. It is a zero sum game: if the foreign holders do pull out, then they would only be hurting their own investments. The Chinese and the Arabs are being co-operative, and this may explain why the dollar has been strengthening during this recent crisis despite such low interest rates, but this co-operation will be put under much strain if the US decides to take drastic interest rate cut decisions. Besides lowering the value of their investments in Treasury bills, the rate cuts will lower Gulf lending rates, which, while easing the liquidity squeeze, might add to inflationary pressures if money supply goes up. In the Gulf there does not seem to be much appetite for state investment funds to jump to the rescue of ailing Wall Street banks. Some have already admitted to massive losses from their earlier banking stakes and have adopted a wait and see attitude to see if national governments are now ready to bail out distressed banks and pump in liquidity. Some see the present crisis is pushing the US into a fall as catastrophic and swift as that of the Soviet Union when the Berlin Wall came down. That might or might not be true in the long run, as America is a resilient nation and nothing rallies its people more than national challenges and overcoming obstacles, but what will be really interesting to watch is the foreign - particularly the Chinese - response to this crisis. For the US, a change in mindset is important. Domestically, the reliance on foreign money means a loss of policy autonomy that Americans are simply going to have to get used to. Part of the accommodation is already occurring. The controversy over investments by SWFs is taking many twists and turns, blowing hot and cold, and probably we will never see the end of a new love-hate financial world order. US politicians had previously worried that the funds would gain political influence by their investments in US companies; now the same politicians are scared the SWFs will have cold feet. The US needs the world's money more than it thought it would. How it copes with the loss of financial power has political and geo-strategic implications to all of us in the Gulf. As such, the Gulf has to weigh short-term losses against long-term diversification that does not harm it. Investments at home could be a small step. Dr Mohamed A Ramady, a former banker, is a visiting associate professor in the finance and economics department at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia.

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Virtual banks explained

What is a virtual bank?

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority defines it as a bank that delivers services through the internet or other electronic channels instead of physical branches. That means not only facilitating payments but accepting deposits and making loans, just like traditional ones. Other terms used interchangeably include digital or digital-only banks or neobanks. By contrast, so-called digital wallets or e-wallets such as Apple Pay, PayPal or Google Pay usually serve as intermediaries between a consumer’s traditional account or credit card and a merchant, usually via a smartphone or computer.

What’s the draw in Asia?

Hundreds of millions of people under-served by traditional institutions, for one thing. In China, India and elsewhere, digital wallets such as Alipay, WeChat Pay and Paytm have already become ubiquitous, offering millions of people an easy way to store and spend their money via mobile phone. Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines are also among the world’s biggest under-banked countries; together they have almost half a billion people.

Is Hong Kong short of banks?

No, but the city is among the most cash-reliant major economies, leaving room for newcomers to disrupt the entrenched industry. Ant Financial, an Alibaba Group Holding affiliate that runs Alipay and MYBank, and Tencent Holdings, the company behind WeBank and WeChat Pay, are among the owners of the eight ventures licensed to create virtual banks in Hong Kong, with operations expected to start as early as the end of the year. 

Russia's Muslim Heartlands

Dominic Rubin, Oxford

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Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Rating: 2/5
 

Empty Words

By Mario Levrero  

(Coffee House Press)
 

The specs

Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo and dual electric motors

Power: 300hp at 6,000rpm

Torque: 520Nm at 1,500-3,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 8.0L/100km

Price: from Dh199,900

On sale: now

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

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Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue

Director: M Night Shyamalan

Rating: 3/5

The specs

Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo

Power: 217hp at 5,750rpm

Torque: 300Nm at 1,900rpm

Transmission: eight-speed auto

Price: from Dh130,000

On sale: now

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The Indoor Cricket World Cup

When: September 16-23

Where: Insportz, Dubai

Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23

UAE fixtures:
Men

Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final

Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final

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