The developments in Ukraine over the past week, and the sanctions imposed on Russia as a result, have had a significant impact on financial markets and increased the risks and uncertainties facing the global economy. Policymaking has become even more challenging in a fluid environment as some of the consequences of the economic sanctions imposed on Russia are still unclear.
In the near term, inflation risks have increased significantly. Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of food and industrial commodities, exports of which have been disrupted by the war and the sanctions on Russia. Russia also accounts for about 11-13 per cent of the world’s oil exports and around 25 per cent of natural gas exports.
While energy is excluded from the sanctions for the time being, demand for Russian oil exports has declined as buyers and financial institutions are wary about transacting with the country.
Consequently, oil prices have surged almost 45 per cent since the start of this year, to over $110 per barrel, while wheat prices have jumped more than 60 per cent since mid-February.
Conventionally, central banks would look through one-off spikes in food and energy prices and focus instead on core inflation. However, with inflation in the US and Europe already at multi-decade highs, and core inflation also running above the 2 per cent targets, the surge in commodity prices has increased pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy even more aggressively.
Despite this pressure, markets are pricing a slower pace of rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank this year than they were before Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine, and officials from both the Fed and the ECB have signalled caution.
In his semi-annual testimony before Congress last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged both the increased inflation risk and the strength of the US economy but said he would propose and support a 25 basis point rate hike in March rather than the 50 basis point increase that some of this colleagues in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have recently called for.
He was perhaps more specific in his comments than he had been previously as he sought to “avoid adding uncertainty to what is already an extraordinarily challenging and uncertain moment”. However, he did leave the door open to more aggressive tightening if inflation comes in higher or remains higher for longer than the Fed currently expects.
One of the uncertainties facing the Fed is that high oil prices usually weaken consumer demand and lead to slower economic growth. As consumers must spend more money on fuel, there is less to spend on other goods and services.
To the extent that oil prices remain high for an extended period, it could mean the Fed wouldn’t need to tighten monetary policy as much to dampen demand. At this stage however, Emirates NBD expects the Fed to raise rates both in March and May as it prioritises its price stability mandate in the face of surging food and energy prices, and strong wage growth.
Europe is likely to see a bigger impact from the disruptions to trade and the impact of sanctions on Russia on its own economy. When the ECB meets this week, it is likely to revise its growth forecasts lower and inflation forecasts substantially higher.
However, policymakers have emphasised caution given the heightened uncertainty and low visibility in terms of economic outcomes. Moreover, the eurozone countries have committed to increasing defence spending and will need to provide additional support for refugees as well, which would likely mean increased debt issuance. This may require further support from the ECB in the form of asset purchases this year even as it seeks to normalise monetary policy to tackle inflation.
Khatija Haque is chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
3.5/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch automatic
Power: 169bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh54,500
On sale: now
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Directed: Smeep Kang
Produced: Soham Rockstar Entertainment; SKE Production
Cast: Rishi Kapoor, Jimmy Sheirgill, Sunny Singh, Omkar Kapoor, Rajesh Sharma
Rating: Two out of five stars
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE's role in anti-extremism recognised
General John Allen, President of the Brookings Institution research group, commended the role the UAE has played in the fight against terrorism and violent extremism.
He told a Globsec debate of the UAE’s "hugely outsized" role in the fight against Isis.
"It’s trite these days to say that any country punches above its weight, but in every possible way the Emirates did, both militarily, and very importantly, the UAE was extraordinarily helpful on getting to the issue of violent extremism," he said.
He also noted the impact that Hedayah, among others in the UAE, has played in addressing violent extremism.
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Company profile
Name: Back to Games and Boardgame Space
Started: Back to Games (2015); Boardgame Space (Mark Azzam became co-founder in 2017)
Founder: Back to Games (Mr Azzam); Boardgame Space (Mr Azzam and Feras Al Bastaki)
Based: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Industry: Back to Games (retail); Boardgame Space (wholesale and distribution)
Funding: Back to Games: self-funded by Mr Azzam with Dh1.3 million; Mr Azzam invested Dh250,000 in Boardgame Space
Growth: Back to Games: from 300 products in 2015 to 7,000 in 2019; Boardgame Space: from 34 games in 2017 to 3,500 in 2019
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
MATCH INFO
Serie A
Juventus v Fiorentina, Saturday, 8pm (UAE)
Match is on BeIN Sports
The finalists
Player of the Century, 2001-2020: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Lionel Messi (Barcelona), Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), Ronaldinho
Coach of the Century, 2001-2020: Pep Guardiola (Manchester City), Jose Mourinho (Tottenham Hotspur), Zinedine Zidane (Real Madrid), Sir Alex Ferguson
Club of the Century, 2001-2020: Al Ahly (Egypt), Bayern Munich (Germany), Barcelona (Spain), Real Madrid (Spain)
Player of the Year: Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
Club of the Year: Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Real Madrid
Coach of the Year: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta), Hans-Dieter Flick (Bayern Munich), Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)
Agent of the Century, 2001-2020: Giovanni Branchini, Jorge Mendes, Mino Raiola
65
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Tour de France 2017: Stage 5
Vittel - La Planche de Belles Filles, 160.5km
It is a shorter stage, but one that will lead to a brutal uphill finish. This is the third visit in six editions since it was introduced to the race in 2012. Reigning champion Chris Froome won that race.
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
FIXTURES
All kick-off times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Sevilla v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad (7.15pm)
Eibar v Valencia (9.30pm)
Atletico Madrid v Alaves (11.45pm)
Sunday
Girona v Getafe (3pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7.15pm)
Las Palmas v Espanyol (9.30pm)
Barcelona v Deportivo la Coruna (11.45pm)
Monday
Malaga v Real Betis (midnight)
Four%20scenarios%20for%20Ukraine%20war
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The Little Things
Directed by: John Lee Hancock
Starring: Denzel Washington, Rami Malek, Jared Leto
Four stars
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
RACECARD
6pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (PA) $50,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
6.35pm: Festival City Stakes – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (D) 1,200m
7.10pm: Dubai Racing Club Classic – Listed (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 2,410m
7.45pm: Jumeirah Classic Trial – Conditions (TB) $150,000 (T) 1,400m
8.20pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 2 (TB) $250,000 (D) 1,600m
8.55pm: Cape Verdi – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,600m
9.30pm: Dubai Dash – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,000m
The flights: South African Airways flies from Dubai International Airport with a stop in Johannesburg, with prices starting from around Dh4,000 return. Emirates can get you there with a stop in Lusaka from around Dh4,600 return.
The details: Visas are available for 247 Zambian kwacha or US$20 (Dh73) per person on arrival at Livingstone Airport. Single entry into Victoria Falls for international visitors costs 371 kwacha or $30 (Dh110). Microlight flights are available through Batoka Sky, with 15-minute flights costing 2,265 kwacha (Dh680).
Accommodation: The Royal Livingstone Victoria Falls Hotel by Anantara is an ideal place to stay, within walking distance of the falls and right on the Zambezi River. Rooms here start from 6,635 kwacha (Dh2,398) per night, including breakfast, taxes and Wi-Fi. Water arrivals cost from 587 kwacha (Dh212) per person.
