Cinnabon is the first US franchise to open in Libya since the revolution and its Tripoli outlet has become a big hit with residents. Jorge Arce / AP Photo
Cinnabon is the first US franchise to open in Libya since the revolution and its Tripoli outlet has become a big hit with residents. Jorge Arce / AP Photo

Consumer capitalism spices up life in Libya



After 42 years, the country formerly known as the Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya is getting its first taste of consumer capitalism in an unlikely form: sweet, sticky cinnamon rolls. Cinnabon, the Atlanta-based bakery chain, is at the vanguard of a potential business boom in the country, which deposed Muammar Qaddafi last year in a bloody civil war. In July, the unit of Focus Brands became the first United States franchise to open in Libya since the revolution. It's become a popular destination in a city with few diversions for residents.

Of all the places in the world, why Libya?

Cinnabon's bet on Libya shows the perils and potential of this wealthy new consumer market, eyed by a growing number of foreign companies. Libya has a rickety electricity grid and few formal property rights and, because of sectarian violence, it remains a dangerous place. At the same time the country sits atop Africa's biggest oil reserves.

But is the interest mutual?

Libya is a less incongruous spot for Cinnabon than one might expect. Syrupy treats like baklava are beloved in Libya, as in other Arab countries, so local palates are ready-made for the chain, said Mike Shattuck, the president of Focus Brands International.

Has the shop been whetting the appetites of locals?

On a recent evening the two-level Tripoli store was busy with young customers, about two-thirds of them women, who tend to avoid the traditionally male-dominated coffee houses. Unlike at most western restaurants, all of the staff are male. An upstairs lounge caters to patrons who want to linger, and the shop stays open until about 11pm to accommodate the local preference for late-night snacking.

Tensions can still get a bit sticky, though, can't they?

Libya presents challenges. Security in Tripoli is shaky. In August, Salafi Muslim militants demolished a downtown mosque of the more moderate Sufi sect with bulldozers. The government has yet to charge anyone with the murders of the US ambassador Chris Stevens and three of his officials, who died when the Benghazi consulate was stormed in September. Kidnappings, including that of the head of Libya's Olympic Committee in July, are a fact of life. Gunfire can be heard most nights in the capital.

Is the future really looking sweet then?

Others are optimistic, as Qaddafi left a wealthy country that needs everything from hospitals to power grids to oil infrastructure, along with modern retail, banking and telecommunications. As Libya rebuilds, the IMF estimates that its economy, worth about US$97 billion (Dh356.30bn) in 2010, will grow by 17 per cent next year. So far the biggest deals remain undone as the market waits to see whether Libya, with 2,000 kilometres of mostly pristine Mediterranean coastline and some of Africa's finest Roman-era archaeological sites, is on the road to becoming the next Dubai - or the next Iraq. Still, Cinnabon is unlikely to be the sole refuge for Libyans craving an American-style dining experience for long.

"It's a virgin land," the manager Ehab Abdelo-Meged says of the country. "Any franchise coming here will be a success."

* Bloomberg News

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Rating: 1/5

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Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
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The National Archives, Abu Dhabi

Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.

Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en

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Practitioners of mindful eating recommend the following books to get you started:

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How to Eat by Thich Nhat Hanh

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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THE BIO

Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979

Education: UAE University, Al Ain

Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6

Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma

Favourite book: Science and geology

Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC

Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.