Emirates NBD, the UAE's largest bank by assets, is highlighted as the most affected by the new Central Bank restrictions. Randi Sokoloff / The National
Emirates NBD, the UAE's largest bank by assets, is highlighted as the most affected by the new Central Bank restrictions. Randi Sokoloff / The National

Deadline day for lending rules



New Central Bank rules capping the exposure of banks to the public sector have proven controversial since they were announced.

Reining in the ability of lenders to offer loans to what has been one of their main revenue sources in recent years was always going to be met with a strong reaction.

Giving banks less than six months to comply with the regulations caused similar consternation.

But as deadline day arrives for the new rules, many industry observers are still dissecting what they will mean for banks and the wider economy.

Announced in April and coming into effect today, the rules set a limit of 100 per cent of banks' capital for lending to the Government and government-linked companies. Lending to individual public sector borrowers will be capped at 25 per cent of banks' capital.

On the surface, the measures appear a prudent way of trying to cut the chances of the debt restructuring sagas that followed Dubai World's request in 2009 to delay payments on US$24.9 billion (Dh91.43) in loans.

Such a seismic adjustment in lending rules is not without complications, however. One such complexity is how closely entwined some banks' balance sheets are with government business. Lending to the Government amounts to about 40 per cent of assets of some of the larger banks, estimate analysts at Capital Economics.

Emirates NBD, the UAE's largest bank by assets, is highlighted as the most affected by the new limits by analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"Emirates NBD's loans to the Dubai Government are 18 to 20 per cent of GDP, given that it has been a source of finance to fiscal deficit and extra cash funnelled further down the Dubai Inc structure," Jean-Michel Saliba, an eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa economist at Bank of America, wrote in an emailed response to questions.

To give banks further time to prepare for the rules, Mr Saliba said he expected their implementation to be pushed back by another six months to the end of next year's first quarter.

He also expects "regulatory forbearance" to allow the lending cap to not derail refinancing by Dubai government-related firms. Dubai's government and state-linked firms are estimated to have about $15bn in debt maturing this year, according to the IMF.

Whether or not the rules are delayed, most economists believe they will be a positive for the economy in the long run.

Restricting how much banks can lend to the public sector cuts the risk of a repeat of the credit bubbles that formed before the 2009 global financial crisis.

"Assuming a lot of the government bank debt is taken on by foreign banks, then there will be more funds for SMEs [small and medium enterprises]," said Said Hirsh, a Middle East economist at Capital Economics. "If the regulations simply result in government loans being exchanged domestically, the impact on overall credit growth is likely to be limited."

Many SMEs have had a tough time securing credit since the crisis as many banks prefer to lend to the Government. Since 2009, the ratio of lending to the public sector out of total banking credit has risen by some 8 percentage points to about 21 per cent, according to Capital Economics. In contrast, the proportion of private sector credit has dropped by seven percentage points.

Overall, credit growth rose 2.6 per cent in April from the same month a year earlier compared with an average of 10 to 15 per cent this year in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, where expansion in lending has remained above 30 per cent since February.

If the new rules can improve credit conditions, while stabilising banks' balance sheets, the controversy over their introduction may soon be forgotten.

Cricket World Cup League 2

UAE squad

Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind

Fixtures

Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SE%20(second%20generation)
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The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Power: 268bhp / 536bhp
Torque: 343Nm / 686Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
On sale: Later this year
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Letswork%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOmar%20Almheiri%2C%20Hamza%20Khan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20co-working%20spaces%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%242.1%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20with%20investors%20including%20500%20Global%2C%20The%20Space%2C%20DTEC%20Ventures%20and%20other%20angel%20investors%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20about%2020%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Jigra
Director: Vasan Bala
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Rated: 3.5/5
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
Singham Again

Director: Rohit Shetty

Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone

Rating: 3/5

Overview

What: The Arab Women’s Sports Tournament is a biennial multisport event exclusively for Arab women athletes.

When: From Sunday, February 2, to Wednesday, February 12.

Where: At 13 different centres across Sharjah.

Disciplines: Athletics, archery, basketball, fencing, Karate, table tennis, shooting (rifle and pistol), show jumping and volleyball.

Participating countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Qatar and UAE.

'The Batman'

Stars:Robert Pattinson

Director:Matt Reeves

Rating: 5/5