Economics alone cannot predict who grabs Olympic glory



The Games of the 29th Olympiad in Beijing are behind us, along with the pageantry, the drama, the glory. But not the statistics. One of the most closely watched figures from the Games is the medal tally. This is what substitutes for a country scoreboard throughout the Olympics. Writ there is the rise and fall of nations, a yardstick by which many seek to validate their political systems, affirm the strength of their people, and demonstrate their economic might.

This year, the US as sole remaining superpower surprised no one by winning the most medals. But it was China, the emerging giant whose successful hosting of the Games recalled Japan's triumphant debut at the 1964 Games in Tokyo, that walked away with the most gold. Few observers will forget Michael Phelps' eight gold medals or Chen Ruolin's victory in the 10-metre platform dive to give China seven out of the eight diving golds on offer. Yet perhaps the most impressive performance belongs to the Bahamians, who with a bronze in the men's triple jump and a silver in the men's 4x400 relay gave their tiny nation the most medals of any country relative to the size of its population.

For the Bahamas (population 331,000) to win any medals at all is a victory against not only fierce competition, but against all odds. On a per capita basis, the performance of the US and China pales in comparison behind that of not only the Bahamas, but also its Caribbean neighbours the Netherlands Antilles and Jamaica, whose Usain Bolt crushed the record in the 100 metres, leaving no doubt that he is the fastest man alive.

Perhaps just as remarkable is that two of the world's most populous countries, Pakistan and Bangladesh, managed to leave the Games without a single medal between them. Sceptics might say that it is money, not masses, that win medals. The Bahamas' per capita gross domestic product (GDP), for example, is almost 10 times that of Pakistan. Winning the award for most medals relative to the size of its economy, though, is troubled Zimbabwe. Despite a long-simmering political crisis and inflation that has hit 11.2 million per cent, the African nation with a US$166 (Dh605.75) per capita annual GDP managed to take three silvers and a gold, all thanks to swimmer Kirsty Coventry. But Ms Coventry doesn't train in Zimbabwe; she trains in Texas.

So perhaps "Lightning" Bolt and his Jamaican compatriots are truly are the big winners. Jamaica follows Zimbabwe as the country with the most medals relative to its economy, followed by Mongolia and Cuba. Calculating the medal haul this way seems to factor out the wealth of nations, but not in the same way that calculating the medals based on per capita GDP does. Zimbabwe, with its Texan-trained swimmer, still tops the list of countries getting the most Olympic bang for their economic buck. Leaving Coventry aside, though, we find none other than China, whose 100 medals gave it more medals relative to the average annual economic output of each of its citizens than any other country.

But China ploughed more than its fair economic share into what it dubbed "Project 119", a big-budget effort launched after the Sydney Games in 2000 to boost its share of the 119 medals that were traditionally available in track and field, swimming and other water-related events. Taking that into account, we move on to impoverished Ethiopia, which despite a per capita annual GDP of just $620 managed to take seven medals in Beijing, four of them golds won by two runners, Kenenisa Bekele and Tirunesh Dibaba. Bekele overcame the death of his fiancée early this year to win both the 5,000 metres and 10,000 metres - the first time anyone has won both those events since Ethiopian Miruts Yifter in Moscow in 1980.

Dibaba comes from running stock: her cousin Derartu Tulu set the Olympic record in the 10,000 metres in the Sydney Games and her sister Ejegayehu, who ran with her in Beijing, won the silver in the 10,000 metres in Athens. If it is not wealth that translates into Olympic lucre, then perhaps it is health. Figures show some evidence that nations with poor health systems struggle to realise their athletic potential. Ethiopia's haul might be larger, for example, if it weren't losing potential champions to one of the world's highest infant mortality rates. Bahrain might have won more than one gold if it didn't have one of the world's highest carbon dioxide emission rates.

Countries with high murder rates tend not to fare well at the Games. Nor do nations where smoking remains a popular vice. In fact, the most notable thing about the achievements of both China and the US is that both managed to do so well despite having one of the world's highest rates of smoking (China) and the world's highest rate of obesity (the US). For my money, the greatest triumph against both demographics and poverty in these Games came from Cuba. With 24 medals, eight of them in boxing, Cuba is a nation that truly punches above its weight.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Electoral College Victory

Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate. 

 

Popular Vote Tally

The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.

QUARTER-FINAL

Wales 20-19 France

Wales: T: Wainwright, Moriarty. Cons: Biggar (2) Pens: Biggar 2

France: T: Vahaamahina, Ollivon, Vakatawa Cons: Ntamack (2)

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