Donald Trump's remarkable return to the White House carries a wide range of uncertainty, not least of all on the Gulf Co-operation Council, whose economies stand to be impacted by a transactional and fickle politician.
When he does return to power, he will be doing so under a different Gulf region than when he left office four years ago. Today's GCC is diversifying its economy from oil and gas, thawing tensions with Iran and on the doorstep of the Gaza war.
“Trump is likely to be different in terms of priorities and how his administration engages, and the Gulf is different. And so there are kind of a range of ways in which the new administration could be good for them. But also there is some significant risk,” said Justin Alexander, director of Khalij Economics.
The biggest and most direct Trump-policy risk for the Gulf is the T-word: tariffs.
Economists warn that his plan to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all imports into the US will reignite inflation and stagnate growth. Some of his other domestic proposals, including deporting immigrant workers, are also expected to have an inflationary impact.
Such policies would force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated, which would spillover into the GCC, where a majority of the countries follow the central bank's policy decisions because of the currency peg.
“The big concern there for the Gulf states is that borrowing costs might be higher, maybe substantially higher, than they would otherwise be, because of the policies that Donald Trump has outlined,” Mr Alexander said.
His tariffs policies would also be a significant step forward in the recent trend in protectionist policies and global fragmentation.
“Gulf states are very open economies in terms of the importance of trade and they thrive in a world where there is stability and free trade and the development not just US tariffs, but the impact they will have, more broadly on protectionism around the world … that's not good for Gulf states ,” Mr Alexander said.
Trade restrictions may have less of an impact on the Gulf, which have shifted most of its exports to Asia and Europe than the US in recent years. China is a particularly important export partner, absorbing 20 per cent of GCC oil and gas exports. India, Japan and South Korea are also major trade partners for oil and gas.
And even as a free-trade agreement between China and the Gulf reportedly stalled earlier this year, Beijing remains a critical economic partner for the region.
Clean energy dilemma
Another signature promise of Mr Trump is to increase oil and gas production, which also carries its own implications for the Gulf.
“Some of the Trump policies might reduce friction with the oil producers in the region and create new ones,” said Rachel Ziemba, a geoeconomic and country risk expert.
Such plans to boost production efforts would also come at an awkward time as many countries in the region start to diversify away from fossil fuels.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia and others are looking to generate economic growth by investing in technology, boosting female employment and other measures as a means to make their economies less reliant on oil and gas.
“There's a bit of a disconnect on responding to climate change and the like,” Ms Ziemba said.
Underscoring that disconnect is his promise to rescind “all unspent funds” of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, a landmark Biden-era law that provides subsidies for clean-energy projects.
President Joe Biden signed the bill in 2022 as part of his administrations plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions by nearly two-thirds by 2035.
Conflict adds further uncertainty
The greatest uncertainty, however, remains the conflict in the Middle East.
The trajectory of the war casts a shadow over the Middle East's outlook as a whole, and the World Bank lowered the region's economic growth to 2.2 per cent this year. The Gulf, meanwhile, is still on track for solid growth at 1.9 per cent after a 0.5 per cent increase last year.
Assuming the conflicts in the region remain unresolved by January, Mr Trump will assume office during a time of historic human and economic suffering in Gaza and Israel's military efforts in Lebanon against Hezbollah.
“The region has changed a lot, not just in the last year, but the security decisions of the Gulf countries have shifted a lot since the last Trump administration, and in some cases because of the realisation that the US security interests and regional security interests weren't always aligned," Ms Ziemba said.
Mr Trump has vowed to pledge a quick end to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. What that means is unclear, however, as he labelled himself as Israel's “protector” during remarks at the Israeli-American Council summit in September.
One analysis conducted by Oxford Economics forecasts Mr Trump's policies to cut GCC growth by 0.2 per cent, but that the immediate economic concern lays in the region's conflicts.
“A Trump presidency would weigh on Middle East growth prospects. However, developments in the war between Israel and its enemies will be more consequential for the short-term outlook in the region than the next president's trade and energy policies,” wrote Maya Senussi, Oxford Economics' lead Mena economist.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Five expert hiking tips
Always check the weather forecast before setting off
Make sure you have plenty of water
Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon
Wear appropriate clothing and footwear
Take your litter home with you
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Sam Smith
Where: du Arena, Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday November 24
Rating: 4/5
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
The specs
Engine: 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 380hp at 5,800rpm
Torque: 530Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Price: From Dh299,000 ($81,415)
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E9pm%3A%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(Dirt)%202%2C000m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Mubhir%20Al%20Ain%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%20(jockey)%2C%20Ahmed%20Al%20Mehairbi%20(trainer)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E9.30pm%3A%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh70%2C000%20(D)%202%2C000m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Exciting%20Days%2C%20Oscar%20Chavez%2C%20Doug%20Watson%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E10pm%3A%20Al%20Ain%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Prestige%20(PA)%20Dh100%2C000%20(D)%202%2C000m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Suny%20Du%20Loup%2C%20Marcelino%20Rodrigues%2C%20Hamad%20Al%20Marar%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E10.30pm%3A%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(D)%201%2C800m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Jafar%20Des%20Arnets%2C%20Oscar%20Chavez%2C%20Ahmed%20Al%20Mehairbi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E11pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Taj%20Al%20Izz%2C%20Richard%20Mullen%2C%20Ibrahim%20Al%20Hadhrami%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E11.30pm%3A%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(D)%201%2C400m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Majdy%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Jean%20de%20Roualle%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E12am%3A%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(D)%201%2C400m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Hamloola%2C%20Sam%20Hitchcott%2C%20Salem%20Al%20Ketbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Guns N’ Roses’s last gig before Abu Dhabi was in Hong Kong on November 21. We were there – and here’s what they played, and in what order. You were warned.
- It’s So Easy
- Mr Brownstone
- Chinese Democracy
- Welcome to the Jungle
- Double Talkin’ Jive
- Better
- Estranged
- Live and Let Die (Wings cover)
- Slither (Velvet Revolver cover)
- Rocket Queen
- You Could Be Mine
- Shadow of Your Love
- Attitude (Misfits cover)
- Civil War
- Coma
- Love Theme from The Godfather (movie cover)
- Sweet Child O’ Mine
- Wichita Lineman (Jimmy Webb cover)
- Wish You Were Here (instrumental Pink Floyd cover)
- November Rain
- Black Hole Sun (Soundgarden cover)
- Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door (Bob Dylan cover)
- Nightrain
Encore:
- Patience
- Don’t Cry
- The Seeker (The Who cover)
- Paradise City
'Of Love & War'
Lynsey Addario, Penguin Press
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Despacito's dominance in numbers
Released: 2017
Peak chart position: No.1 in more than 47 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and Lebanon
Views: 5.3 billion on YouTube
Sales: With 10 million downloads in the US, Despacito became the first Latin single to receive Diamond sales certification
Streams: 1.3 billion combined audio and video by the end of 2017, making it the biggest digital hit of the year.
Awards: 17, including Record of the Year at last year’s prestigious Latin Grammy Awards, as well as five Billboard Music Awards
RESULTS
Main card
Bantamweight 56.4kg: Mehdi Eljamari (MAR) beat Abrorbek Madiminbekov (UZB), Split points decision
Super heavyweight 94 kg: Adnan Mohammad (IRN) beat Mohammed Ajaraam (MAR), Split points decision
Lightweight 60kg: Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Faridoon Alik Zai (AFG), RSC round 3
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Taha Marrouni (MAR) beat Mahmood Amin (EGY), Unanimous points decision
Light welterweight 64.5kg: Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK) beat Nouredine Samir (UAE), Unanimous points decision
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Haroun Baka (ALG), KO second round
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
