US President Donald Trump has boasted that falling crude prices are like a tax cut for the world, however, motorists in much of Asia have yet to pocket substantial savings from the recent rout in oil markets.
Since its 2018 closing peak of $86.29 a barrel on October 3, Brent crude has tumbled about 30 per cent.
This decline has been matched by the price of 92-octane petrol in Singapore, which was down by 33 per cent from its peak of $92.65 a barrel on October 2 to $62.30 on November 23.
However, the retail price of petrol in major Asian countries has fallen by significantly smaller margins.
The pump price of gasoline in India's capital New Delhi was 76.66 rupees (Dh3.92) a litre on November 24, according to price monitoring website mypetrolprice.com.
This is down 10 per cent from the peak of 84.06 rupees on October 4, illustrating that the sharp decline in crude and ex-refinery petrol prices has yet to filter through to consumers.
However, the above calculation doesn't factor in the impact of fuel taxes, which in India are about one-third of the retail price.
Excluding taxes from the price reveals a slightly larger 13.2 percent drop in the untaxed component of India's gasoline price from the October peak until Nov. 24.
Australia's national average petrol price has dropped by about 14.1 per cent, from a 2018 peak of A$1.605 (Dh4.26) a litre in the week to October 28 to A$1.378 in the week to November 25, according to data from the Australian Institute of Petroleum.
Australia's fuel taxes are about the same percentage as those in India, meaning there has been a slightly larger drop in the untaxed component of the fuel price, but still nothing close to the plunge in Brent.
China, which has a managed system for retail fuel prices, has seen a lower drop than India and Australia, with petrol falling 5.4 per cent to 7.74 yuan (Dh4.11) a litre in the week ended November 19, according to data on the website globalpetrolprices.com.
It's likely that retail petrol prices will drop in those countries in coming weeks, but it would be unlikely that they fall by as much as motorists might hope for, given the slump in crude.
Asian refiners are already struggling to make any money producing gasoline, with the profit margin, or crack, for making a barrel of 92-octane from Brent crude in Singapore at 32 cents on November 23.
This is up from a loss of $1.17 a barrel on November 8, which was the weakest crack in seven years, but still well below the $11.55 peak for 2018, reached on August 15.
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Read more:
UAE fuel prices for November: petrol falls but diesel costs rise
Slide in oil prices unlikely to last
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With profits from petrol currently tenuous, the scope for refiners to lower prices further is likely constrained.
In some ways it's a double-edged sword for the region's refiners, as they can lower petrol prices and make a loss in the hope of boosting demand in order to remove a surplus of the fuel.
Asian refiners are also in a quandary over strong margins for middle distillates, such as diesel, which encourage them to run their plants at high rates, even though this also ensures they produce more petrol than the market is demanding.
The profit margin for producing a barrel of gasoil, the base for diesel and jet fuel, from Dubai crude in Singapore was $15.50 in early trade on Monday, down from the 2018 peak of $17.97 on November 15, but well above the low of $12.12 from June 27.
Given the strong demand for diesel and robust refinery profits, it's no surprise that the retail price in India and Australia has failed to reflect the recent decline in crude.
Diesel in New Delhi was 70.65 rupees a litre on November 23, down 6.7 per cent from the recent peak of 75.74 rupees on October 16.
The national average diesel price in Australia was A$1.595 in the week to November 25, down only 3.2 per cent from the recent high of A$1.649 in the week to October 28.
While much of the focus in crude markets has been on the supply side, and the rapid switch from fears of tightness to oversupply, the demand side of the equation shouldn't be ignored.
Probably the best method for producers, traders and refiners of clearing oversupply in crude markets is to have demand gain to clear the surplus.
However, given the modest declines in retail prices for petrol and diesel in major Asian countries, a demand-led tightening of the market may remain elusive.
Favourite book: ‘The Art of Learning’ by Josh Waitzkin
Favourite film: Marvel movies
Favourite parkour spot in Dubai: Residence towers in Jumeirah Beach Residence
Fatherland
Kele Okereke
(BMG)
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Race card
6.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (Dirt) 1.600m
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 2,000m
7.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: The Garhoud Sprint Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 1,200m
8.50pm: The Entisar Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 2,000m
9.25pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 120,000 (D) 1,400m
About Krews
Founder: Ahmed Al Qubaisi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Founded: January 2019
Number of employees: 10
Sector: Technology/Social media
Funding to date: Estimated $300,000 from Hub71 in-kind support
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday Valladolid v Osasuna (Kick-off midnight UAE)
Saturday Valencia v Athletic Bilbao (5pm), Getafe v Sevilla (7.15pm), Huesca v Alaves (9.30pm), Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid (midnight)
Sunday Real Sociedad v Eibar (5pm), Real Betis v Villarreal (7.15pm), Elche v Granada (9.30pm), Barcelona v Levante (midnight)
Monday Celta Vigo v Cadiz (midnight)
THE SPECS
Engine: 3-litre V6
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 424hp
Torque: 580 Nm
Price: From Dh399,000
On sale: Now
Dubai World Cup prize money
Group 1 (Purebred Arabian) 2000m Dubai Kahayla Classic - $750,000
Group 2 1,600m(Dirt) Godolphin Mile - $750,000
Group 2 3,200m (Turf) Dubai Gold Cup – $750,000
Group 1 1,200m (Turf) Al Quoz Sprint – $1,000,000
Group 2 1,900m(Dirt) UAE Derby – $750,000
Group 1 1,200m (Dirt) Dubai Golden Shaheen – $1,500,000
Group 1 1,800m (Turf) Dubai Turf – $4,000,000
Group 1 2,410m (Turf) Dubai Sheema Classic – $5,000,000
Group 1 2,000m (Dirt) Dubai World Cup– $12,000,000
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Graduated from the American University of Sharjah
She is the eldest of three brothers and two sisters
Has helped solve 15 cases of electric shocks
Enjoys travelling, reading and horse riding
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster who has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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Results
Male 51kg Round 1
Dias Karmanov (KAZ) beat Mabrook Rasea (YEM) by points 2-1.
Male 54kg Round 1
Yelaman Sayassatov (KAZ) beat Chen Huang (TPE) TKO Round 1; Huynh Hoang Phi (VIE) beat Fahad Anakkayi (IND) RSC Round 2; Qais Al Jamal (JOR) beat Man Long Ng (MAC) by points 3-0; Ayad Albadr (IRQ) beat Yashar Yazdani (IRI) by points 2-1.
Male 57kg Round 1
Natthawat Suzikong (THA) beat Abdallah Ondash (LBN) by points 3-0; Almaz Sarsembekov (KAZ) beat Ahmed Al Jubainawi (IRQ) by points 2-1; Hamed Almatari (YEM) beat Nasser Al Rugheeb (KUW) by points 3-0; Zakaria El Jamari (UAE) beat Yu Xi Chen (TPE) by points 3-0.
Men 86kg Round 1
Ahmad Bahman (UAE) beat Mohammad Al Khatib (PAL) by points 2-1
Men 63.5kg Round 1
Noureddin Samir (UAE) beat Polash Chakma (BAN) RSC Round 1.
Female 45kg quarter finals
Narges Mohammadpour (IRI) beat Yuen Wai Chan (HKG) by points.
Female 48kg quarter finals
Szi Ki Wong (HKG) beat Dimple Vaishnav (IND) RSC round 2; Thanawan Thongduang (THA) beat Nastaran Soori (IRI) by points; Shabnam Hussain Zada (AFG) beat Tzu Ching Lin (TPE) by points.
Female 57kg quarter finals
Nguyen Thi Nguyet (VIE) beat Anisha Shetty (IND) by points 2-1; Areeya Sahot (THA) beat Dana Al Mayyal (KUW) RSC Round 1; Sara Idriss (LBN) beat Ching Yee Tsang (HKG) by points 3-0.
LAST-16 FIXTURES
Sunday, January 20
3pm: Jordan v Vietnam at Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai
6pm: Thailand v China at Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: Iran v Oman at Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Monday, January 21
3pm: Japan v Saudi Arabia at Sharjah Stadium
6pm: Australia v Uzbekistan at Khalifa bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: UAE v Kyrgyzstan at Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Tuesday, January 22
5pm: South Korea v Bahrain at Rashid Stadium, Dubai
8pm: Qatar v Iraq at Al Nahyan Stadium, Abu Dhabi
