Mario Draghi, the ECB president. The ECB has kept rates unchanged. Johannes Eisele / AFP
Mario Draghi, the ECB president. The ECB has kept rates unchanged. Johannes Eisele / AFP

ECB chief keeps rates unchanged



The European Central Bank has left its interest rate benchmarks and policy statement unchanged, underlining its reluctance to roil markets with premature signals about an exit from its stimulus efforts.

The decision was announced Thursday after a regular meeting of the bank's 25-member policy council at its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany.

The monetary authority for the 19 countries that use the euro currency said in its policy statement that it will keep injecting €60 billion (Dh253.09bn) in newly printed money into the economy every month at least through the end of the year, and longer if necessary.

Investors were watching closely to see if the bank would drop language that the purchases could be increased or extended. That would have been a verbal step toward the exit. But the wording was unchanged.

Markets are now waiting for the post-decision news conference held by bank president Mario Draghi for clues about the bank's plans.

ECB officials have been cautious about signalling any exit from the bond purchase program. That is even though most analysts think the bank will have to taper off the purchases next year because it will start running out of eligible bonds to buy.

Markets reacted sharply to remarks by Mr Draghi in a speech on June 27 where he spoke about gradual reductions in stimulus as the economy grows stronger. The euro went higher and so did interest yields on longer-term bonds, developments that could prematurely blunt the stimulus effect.

The end of the stimulus will eventually have wide-ranging effects on investors, governments and ordinary people. Long-term interest rates should rise. That would mean governments would pay more for interest costs and have less left over for roads, schools and salaries. In particular, an end to the bond purchases could mean more pressure on highly indebted euro-zone members such as Italy, which are currently paying very little to refinance their large debt piles. A growing economy, however, means that an immediate return to the debt crisis of 2009-2012 is considered unlikely.

On the consumer side, home buyers would get less house for a given mortgage amount due to a higher share of interest costs. Savers, on the other hand, might see more return on conservative holdings such as bank deposits and CDs and life insurance policies. Higher rates would make riskier investments such as stocks.

Despite its current caution, the ECB faces the prospect of having to start phasing out stimulus next year even though it shows little sign of reaching its goal: a higher rate of inflation. The annual inflation rate in June was 1.3 per cent, still far from the bank's goal of just under 2 per cent - and that despite the huge stimulus running since March, 2015. The bank must hope that the economic recovery eventually pushes up inflation as new jobs are created and companies pay workers more. The economy has picked up some pace this year and the European Commission predicts the euro zone will grow 1.7 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent next year.

Through the bond purchases, the ECB effectively creates new money in the economy. The aim is for that money to find its way to companies and consumers in the form of credit. Increasing the supply of money in the economy can in theory raise inflation. The bank considers its inflation goal to be the level most consistent with a healthy economy. Low inflation sounds good to consumers but can make it harder for indebted companies and countries to pay down their burdens. It also makes it harder for weaker members of the euro zone to reduce their business costs relative to other countries and sell more goods through trade.

The ECB has made it clear that it will hold its benchmark interest rate at zero well after the purchases end. That means no rate increase is foreseen by analysts until 2019.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Starring: Sebastian Stan, Maria Bakalova, Jeremy Strong

Rating: 3/5

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Rating: 1/5

COMPANY PROFILE
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Number of staff: 210 
 
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Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
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Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
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A dice-based battle system is used and players can get the edge on their enemy with by deploying a renowned hero on the battlefield.

Players that lose battles and land will find their coffers dwindle and troops go hungry. The end goal? Global domination of course.

MATCH INFO

Liverpool 2 (Van Dijk 18', 24')

Brighton 1 (Dunk 79')

Red card: Alisson (Liverpool)

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Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

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