Information of Shanghai Composite Index in Beijing. Chinese markets, increasingly represented by internet software and services stocks, have grown. Reuters
Information of Shanghai Composite Index in Beijing. Chinese markets, increasingly represented by internet software and services stocks, have grown. Reuters

From commodities to computers: Emerging markets' seismic shift



The investible emerging markets equity universe has experienced a seismic shift over the past decade.

Major markets have moved from being very globally exposed and cyclical, to more of a mix of global information technology and local consumer-driven stocks. That shift has clear implications for the changing risks that drive emerging markets investors’ returns, of course. But it should also encourage us to think again about how emerging markets are valued - relative to developed markets, but also relative to their own history. Emerging markets may not be as expensive, or as cyclical, as one might think.

From commodities to computers

The shift in the investable markets has resulted in a shift in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. At the end of 2007, energy (18 per cent) and materials (15 percent) accounted fully for one-third of the index. Fast-forward to 2017, and those two sectors account for only 14 per cent. Information technology has risen to 28 per cent of the index from 10 per cent, partly through faster growth and partly because MSCI included China’s predominantly technology focused American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) in the index during 2015-16.

Commodity-driven markets such as Russia and Brazil have declined as a proportion of the index, while China, increasingly represented by internet software and services stocks, has grown. At the end of 2007, China accounted for 16 per cent of the index, and Chinese tech companies 0.3 per cent; by 2017 China had a 30 per cent allocation and China tech accounted for 12.3 per cent of the index.

The shift to information technology in the investable markets better reflects the “real” economy and consumer behavior within it, both now and especially in the future. But how should one value emerging markets, given this radical change?

A changing profile implies changing views on valuation

We might expect the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to have become less attractive on a valuation basis, relative to both its history and to the valuation in developed markets.

In fact, the MSCI Emerging Market Index not only trades at a lower price-to-equity ratio than the MSCI World and S&P 500 Indexes, it has also been getting relatively cheaper for the past six years, even as its exposure to the technology sector has grown.

Broad technology-sector valuations are in the middle of their own 10-year historical range. Valuations in internet stocks are rich, but the hardware and semiconductor industries are trading cheaply relative to their history, probably due to the past boom-and-bust cycles in these sectors. We would argue that these companies should not all be painted with a broad brush, however, as certain sub-segments are benefitting from an entirely new theme of technology and semiconductor proliferation in autos and other appliances.

__________

Read more:

Middle East SWFs hunt returns through private asset classes, Invesco says

GCC sovereigns must keep up with structural reforms to retain strong credit ratings

__________

Compare the US and emerging markets energy, material and technology sectors using price-to-earnings ratios and estimated five-year earnings-per-share growth, and the picture becomes even clearer. First, the three Emerging Markets sectors trade more cheaply relative to their US counterparts.

Second, outside of US energy, which is coming off a lower earnings base, they also have stronger earnings growth. When we go back up to the index level again, we can see this dynamic playing out in price-to-earnings growth ratios. In developed markets, this ratio sits at around 1.5, whereas in emerging markets it is less than 0.8. Technology stocks in the emerging markets are cheaper, even though their earnings are growing faster.

Strong Growth Is Not Without Risk

This dramatic change in emerging markets does come with an element of concentration risk. The top four holdings in the MSCI Emerging Market Index are all technology firms—and the fifth has a 30 per cent stake in the first. Together, they account for nearly 20 per cent of the index.

The top five stocks in the S&P 500 Index are also dominated by technology today, but by contrast they account for only 12 per cent of the index. Having said that, the sector as a whole accounts for 28 per cent of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, versus 26 per cent of the S&P 500. While concentration has increased we do not believe it is out of sync with other markets.

We view emerging markets as an attractive investment opportunity, especially on a relative-value basis. We like the superior growth characteristics of technology, and we would argue that, with earnings growth led by sectors that are not solely dependent on the global economic cycle and global trade dynamics, emerging markets exhibit a very different profile now than they have had in the latter stages of previous global cycles.

Conrad Saldanha is Senior Portfolio Manager - Emerging Markets Equity at Neuberger Berman, which is a member of The Gulf Bond and Sukuk Association.

What you as a drone operator need to know

A permit and licence is required to fly a drone legally in Dubai.

Sanad Academy is the United Arab Emirate’s first RPA (Remotely Piloted Aircraft) training and certification specialists endorsed by the Dubai Civil Aviation authority.

It is responsible to train, test and certify drone operators and drones in UAE with DCAA Endorsement.

“We are teaching people how to fly in accordance with the laws of the UAE,” said Ahmad Al Hamadi, a trainer at Sanad.

“We can show how the aircraft work and how they are operated. They are relatively easy to use, but they need responsible pilots.

“Pilots have to be mature. They are given a map of where they can and can’t fly in the UAE and we make these points clear in the lectures we give.

“You cannot fly a drone without registration under any circumstances.”

Larger drones are harder to fly, and have a different response to location control. There are no brakes in the air, so the larger drones have more power.

The Sanad Academy has a designated area to fly off the Al Ain Road near Skydive Dubai to show pilots how to fly responsibly.

“As UAS technology becomes mainstream, it is important to build wider awareness on how to integrate it into commerce and our personal lives,” said Major General Abdulla Khalifa Al Marri, Commander-in-Chief, Dubai Police.

“Operators must undergo proper training and certification to ensure safety and compliance.

“Dubai’s airspace will undoubtedly experience increased traffic as UAS innovations become commonplace, the Forum allows commercial users to learn of best practice applications to implement UAS safely and legally, while benefitting a whole range of industries.”

UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%20EPD%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%20Switch%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Famous left-handers

- Marie Curie

- Jimi Hendrix

- Leonardo Di Vinci

- David Bowie

- Paul McCartney

- Albert Einstein

- Jack the Ripper

- Barack Obama

- Helen Keller

- Joan of Arc

The specs

Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6

Power: 400hp

Torque: 475Nm

Transmission: 9-speed automatic

Price: From Dh215,900

On sale: Now

Five expert hiking tips
    Always check the weather forecast before setting off Make sure you have plenty of water Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon Wear appropriate clothing and footwear Take your litter home with you
Results

5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (Dirt) 1,000m, Winner: Hazeem Al Raed, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)

5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 85,000 (D) 1,000m, Winner: Ghazwan Al Khalediah, Hugo Lebouc, Helal Al Alawi

6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,400m, Winner: Dinar Al Khalediah, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi.

6.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Faith And Fortune, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.

7pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Only Smoke, Bernardo Pinheiro, Abdallah Al Hammadi.

7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: AF Ramz, Saif Al Balushi, Khalifa Al Neyadi.

8pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 2,000m, Winner: AF Mass, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.

AGUERO'S PREMIER LEAGUE RECORD

Apps: 186
Goals: 127
Assists: 31
Wins: 117
Losses: 33

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
MATCH INFO

Crawley Town 3 (Tsaroulla 50', Nadesan 53', Tunnicliffe 70')

Leeds United 0 

Getting%20there
%3Cp%3EGiven%20its%20remote%20location%2C%20getting%20to%20Borneo%20can%20feel%20daunting%20even%20for%20the%20most%20seasoned%20traveller.%20But%20you%20can%20fly%20directly%20from%20Kuala%20Lumpur%20to%20Sandakan%20and%20Sepilok%20is%20only%20half%20an%20hour%20away%20by%20taxi.%20Sandakan%20has%20plenty%20of%20accommodation%20options%2C%20while%20Sepilok%20has%20a%20few%20nature%20lodges%20close%20to%20the%20main%20attractions.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE

Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega

Director: Tim Burton

Rating: 3/5

ESSENTIALS

The flights 
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
 

The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
What is the definition of an SME?

SMEs in the UAE are defined by the number of employees, annual turnover and sector. For example, a “small company” in the services industry has six to 50 employees with a turnover of more than Dh2 million up to Dh20m, while in the manufacturing industry the requirements are 10 to 100 employees with a turnover of more than Dh3m up to Dh50m, according to Dubai SME, an agency of the Department of Economic Development.

A “medium-sized company” can either have staff of 51 to 200 employees or 101 to 250 employees, and a turnover less than or equal to Dh200m or Dh250m, again depending on whether the business is in the trading, manufacturing or services sectors. 

Safety 'top priority' for rival hyperloop company

The chief operating officer of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Andres de Leon, said his company's hyperloop technology is “ready” and safe.

He said the company prioritised safety throughout its development and, last year, Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, announced it was ready to insure their technology.

“Our levitation, propulsion, and vacuum technology have all been developed [...] over several decades and have been deployed and tested at full scale,” he said in a statement to The National.

“Only once the system has been certified and approved will it move people,” he said.

HyperloopTT has begun designing and engineering processes for its Abu Dhabi projects and hopes to break ground soon. 

With no delivery date yet announced, Mr de Leon said timelines had to be considered carefully, as government approval, permits, and regulations could create necessary delays.

Specs – Taycan 4S
Engine: Electric

Transmission: 2-speed auto

Power: 571bhp

Torque: 650Nm

Price: Dh431,800

Specs – Panamera
Engine: 3-litre V6 with 100kW electric motor

Transmission: 2-speed auto

Power: 455bhp

Torque: 700Nm

Price: from Dh431,800

MATCH INFO

Champions League quarter-final, first leg

Ajax v Juventus, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)

Match on BeIN Sports

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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Attacks on Egypt’s long rooted Copts

Egypt’s Copts belong to one of the world’s oldest Christian communities, with Mark the Evangelist credited with founding their church around 300 AD. Orthodox Christians account for the overwhelming majority of Christians in Egypt, with the rest mainly made up of Greek Orthodox, Catholics and Anglicans.

The community accounts for some 10 per cent of Egypt’s 100 million people, with the largest concentrations of Christians found in Cairo, Alexandria and the provinces of Minya and Assiut south of Cairo.

Egypt’s Christians have had a somewhat turbulent history in the Muslim majority Arab nation, with the community occasionally suffering outright persecution but generally living in peace with their Muslim compatriots. But radical Muslims who have first emerged in the 1970s have whipped up anti-Christian sentiments, something that has, in turn, led to an upsurge in attacks against their places of worship, church-linked facilities as well as their businesses and homes.

More recently, ISIS has vowed to go after the Christians, claiming responsibility for a series of attacks against churches packed with worshippers starting December 2016.

The discrimination many Christians complain about and the shift towards religious conservatism by many Egyptian Muslims over the last 50 years have forced hundreds of thousands of Christians to migrate, starting new lives in growing communities in places as far afield as Australia, Canada and the United States.

Here is a look at major attacks against Egypt's Coptic Christians in recent years:

November 2: Masked gunmen riding pickup trucks opened fire on three buses carrying pilgrims to the remote desert monastery of St. Samuel the Confessor south of Cairo, killing 7 and wounding about 20. IS claimed responsibility for the attack.

May 26, 2017: Masked militants riding in three all-terrain cars open fire on a bus carrying pilgrims on their way to the Monastery of St. Samuel the Confessor, killing 29 and wounding 22. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.

April 2017Twin attacks by suicide bombers hit churches in the coastal city of Alexandria and the Nile Delta city of Tanta. At least 43 people are killed and scores of worshippers injured in the Palm Sunday attack, which narrowly missed a ceremony presided over by Pope Tawadros II, spiritual leader of Egypt Orthodox Copts, in Alexandria's St. Mark's Cathedral. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks.

February 2017: Hundreds of Egyptian Christians flee their homes in the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula, fearing attacks by ISIS. The group's North Sinai affiliate had killed at least seven Coptic Christians in the restive peninsula in less than a month.

December 2016A bombing at a chapel adjacent to Egypt's main Coptic Christian cathedral in Cairo kills 30 people and wounds dozens during Sunday Mass in one of the deadliest attacks carried out against the religious minority in recent memory. ISIS claimed responsibility.

July 2016Pope Tawadros II says that since 2013 there were 37 sectarian attacks on Christians in Egypt, nearly one incident a month. A Muslim mob stabs to death a 27-year-old Coptic Christian man, Fam Khalaf, in the central city of Minya over a personal feud.

May 2016: A Muslim mob ransacks and torches seven Christian homes in Minya after rumours spread that a Christian man had an affair with a Muslim woman. The elderly mother of the Christian man was stripped naked and dragged through a street by the mob.

New Year's Eve 2011A bomb explodes in a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria as worshippers leave after a midnight mass, killing more than 20 people.

The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Dubai Bling season three

Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed 

Rating: 1/5

The National Archives, Abu Dhabi

Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.

Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en