The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt will drive economic expansion in the Middle East and North Africa in 2019, even as recession in Iran weighs on the region’s overall growth, Fitch Solutions said in a report yesterday.
In the year ahead, a forecast of 4.1 per cent economic contraction in Iran, compared to 0.5 per cent in 2018, will act as the biggest drag on Mena growth, according to the unit of Fitch Group.
“We believe the Iranian economy entered into recession in 2018 as the reimposition of US sanctions spurred investment outflows, oil export reductions, rial weakness and soaring inflation,” the report said.
“This recession looks set to deepen in 2019 as sanctions remain in place and likely tighten further.”
Last year, prior to reimposing sanctions, the US also withdrew from a nuclear deal struck between the US, UK, France, China, Russia, Germany and Iran in 2015.
Mena average GDP growth will decelerate to 1.9 per cent in 2019 from 2.1 per cent in 2018 due to the recession in Iran, the report said.
The report assumes Iran’s net hydrocarbons exports will reduce by about 30 per cent as a result of the reimposition of sanctions. An accompanying fall in hard currency inflows will weigh on the rial further this year and increase import costs, constraining business activity and reducing the government’s ability to subsidise basic goods.
Iranian plans to restructure its squeezed banking system will likely be postponed too, Fitch said, meaning the private sector will find it hard to access credit and inflation could rise. Private investment and consumption will in turn likely contract.
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Read more:
Iran to face recession as US sanctions bite
UAE economy will see robust growth in year ahead
Iranian inflation set to rise sharply as US sanctions deadline approaches
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Overall, another drag on Mena growth could be a sharper than expected slowdown in global economic growth, which could reduce oil demand and discourage investment. Mena oil producers’ export gains are being capped over the quarters ahead – at least until mid-2019. Global financial tightening and trade tensions are other downside risks, Fitch said.
However, economic growth in the GCC will rise slightly to 2.6 per cent in 2019, up from 2.5 per cent in 2018, driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose expansionary fiscal policies are helping boost non-oil investment and consumption.
Growth in Saudi Arabia is forecast to be 2.4 per cent this year from an estimated 2.3 per cent in 2018, while the UAE economy is set to accelerate to 3 per cent in 2019, from 2.8 per cent, as the Abu Dhabi Government scales up investment and Dubai prepares for the Expo 2020.
Meanwhile, Egypt is expected to continue to outperform in the region, with forecast growth averaging above 5 per cent over 2019-2020. The North African country has implemented a package of economic and structural reforms over the past three years to improve fiscal stability and encourage investment.
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The lowdown
Badla
Rating: 2.5/5
Produced by: Red Chillies, Azure Entertainment
Director: Sujoy Ghosh
Cast: Amitabh Bachchan, Taapsee Pannu, Amrita Singh, Tony Luke
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No%20Windmills%20in%20Basra
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UAE%20ILT20
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Other ways to buy used products in the UAE
UAE insurance firm Al Wathba National Insurance Company (AWNIC) last year launched an e-commerce website with a facility enabling users to buy car wrecks.
Bidders and potential buyers register on the online salvage car auction portal to view vehicles, review condition reports, or arrange physical surveys, and then start bidding for motors they plan to restore or harvest for parts.
Physical salvage car auctions are a common method for insurers around the world to move on heavily damaged vehicles, but AWNIC is one of the few UAE insurers to offer such services online.
For cars and less sizeable items such as bicycles and furniture, Dubizzle is arguably the best-known marketplace for pre-loved.
Founded in 2005, in recent years it has been joined by a plethora of Facebook community pages for shifting used goods, including Abu Dhabi Marketplace, Flea Market UAE and Arabian Ranches Souq Market while sites such as The Luxury Closet and Riot deal largely in second-hand fashion.
At the high-end of the pre-used spectrum, resellers such as Timepiece360.ae, WatchBox Middle East and Watches Market Dubai deal in authenticated second-hand luxury timepieces from brands such as Rolex, Hublot and Tag Heuer, with a warranty.
SERIE A FIXTURES
Saturday
AC Milan v Sampdoria (2.30pm kick-off UAE)
Atalanta v Udinese (5pm)
Benevento v Parma (5pm)
Cagliari v Hellas Verona (5pm)
Genoa v Fiorentina (5pm)
Lazio v Spezia (5pm)
Napoli v Crotone (5pm)
Sassuolo v Roma (5pm)
Torino v Juventus (8pm)
Bologna v Inter Milan (10.45pm)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Schedule:
Pakistan v Sri Lanka:
28 Sep-2 Oct, 1st Test, Abu Dhabi
6-10 Oct, 2nd Test (day-night), Dubai
13 Oct, 1st ODI, Dubai
16 Oct, 2nd ODI, Abu Dhabi
18 Oct, 3rd ODI, Abu Dhabi
20 Oct, 4th ODI, Sharjah
23 Oct, 5th ODI, Sharjah
26 Oct, 1st T20I, Abu Dhabi
27 Oct, 2nd T20I, Abu Dhabi
29 Oct, 3rd T20I, Lahore
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The%20specs
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Company%20Profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Married Malala
Malala Yousafzai is enjoying married life, her father said.
The 24-year-old married Pakistan cricket executive Asser Malik last year in a small ceremony in the UK.
Ziauddin Yousafzai told The National his daughter was ‘very happy’ with her husband.
Ticket prices
- Golden circle - Dh995
- Floor Standing - Dh495
- Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
- Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
- Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
- Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
- Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
- Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
