Ain El Helweh, near the southern coastal Lebanese city of Sidon. Moody's  has downgraded the country's rating. Mahmoud Zayyat / AFP
Ain El Helweh, near the southern coastal Lebanese city of Sidon. Moody's has downgraded the country's rating. Mahmoud Zayyat / AFP

Moody's downgrades Lebanon amid weak growth forecast



The ratings agency Moody's Investors Service has downgraded Lebanon's long-term issuer ratings to B3 from B2 although it changed the outlook to stable from negative.

Moody's said the downgrade was based on its view that a B3 rating more accurately reflects Lebanon's credit risk profile.

"The ongoing erosion of Lebanon's very weak government finances will continue to constrain the rating pending further clarity on whether recent and prospective fiscal reforms will be effective given the evolving political environment," the agency said.

"While Lebanon's external liquidity position continues to be strong, and banking liquidity ample, rising external imbalances, coupled with a weak growth outlook increase Lebanon's vulnerability to external shocks."

Moody's said the upgrade to a stable outlook reflected "the return to a fully-functioning government, which will support reform momentum going forward".

The principal driver of the downgrade to B3 was the rise in the country's debt burden, it added. Moody's estimated Lebanon's 2018 government debt to reach close to 140 per cent of GDP, the third-highest among all rated sovereigns. "Government debt has risen inexorably since 2011, when it bottomed out at 121 per cent of GDP, reflecting a deterioration in the fiscal balance," it said. "Moody's projects government debt will remain close to 700 per cent of government revenues next year."

In the agency's view, recent fiscal reforms are very unlikely to reduce the deficit in 2017 and 2018.

"The recent revenue package approved by parliament is credit positive as it demonstrates the emerging consensus among decision-makers, but its purpose is simply to offset the planned upward adjustment in public sector salary scales; further action will be needed to reverse the rising debt trajectory. The absence of an approved budget continues to impede the formulation and implementation of debt-stabilising reforms."

No budget has been in place since 2005, and while the recent agreement within the cabinet raises the prospect of a budget now being passed by parliament, Moody's said its likely impact was unclear and its approval comes too late to halt the erosion in fiscal strength.

External imbalances are wide and rising again. The trade deficit reached US$13.6 billion in 2016, or 26.2 per cent of GDP, up from $13.1bn, or 25.8 per cent of GDP last year. Although Lebanon has benefited from a fall in hydrocarbon prices and continued remittances inflows, tourism receipts have not recovered.
The cost of hosting Syrian refugees, combined with a deterioration in infrastructure and limited donor support have dampened growth to an annual average of 1.6 per cent over the past three years, the agency added.

"Even though Moody's expects growth to pick up to close to 3 per cent this year and next, the legacy of years of under-investment and political instability leave potential growth well below previously high growth levels. Even if political stability consolidates after the May 2018 elections, the economy will remain vulnerable to external shocks."

Regarding the outlook upgrade to stable, Moody's said that was driven by its expectations of an acceleration in economic and fiscal reforms, including buttressing the energy sector. 

The specs

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Starting price: Dh79,000

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SPECS

Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
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THE SPECS

Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine 

Power: 420kW

Torque: 780Nm

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Price: From Dh1,350,000

On sale: Available for preorder now

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How to volunteer

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Marathon results

Men:

 1. Titus Ekiru(KEN) 2:06:13 

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Wicked
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10 tips for entry-level job seekers
  • Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
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  • Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
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Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz

1,000 Books to Read Before You Die: A Life-Changing List
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

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Director: Amith Krishnan

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PROFILE OF HALAN

Started: November 2017

Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Sector: transport and logistics

Size: 150 employees

Investment: approximately $8 million

Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
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Max touring range: 620km / 590km
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On sale: Later this year
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Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
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Number of employees: 4
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Business Insights
  • As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses. 
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  • Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
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