Moody’s Investors Service downgraded its credit rating for Lebanon deeper into junk territory, the first time in more than two decades, citing concerns over the government’s ability to pay or restructure its debt amid a liquidity crunch that raises the risk of default.
“Moody's decision to downgrade the ratings to Caa1 from B3 reflects the heightened risk that the government's response to increased liquidity and financial stability risks will include a debt rescheduling or other liability management exercise that may constitute a default under Moody's definition,” it said.
Tuesday's downgrade puts Lebanon on par with Gabon, Zambia, Iraq and Ukraine. The cut led to the yield on Lebanese 2021 bonds to rise 11 basis points, according to Bloomberg data. In December, Moody's changed the outlook on Lebanon's then B3 issuer ratings to negative on the back of "rising liquidity and financial stability risks”.
Lebanon, which is being governed by a caretaker administration for the past eight months, is saddled with the world’s third highest debt to GDP ratio – 150 per cent – and is struggling to control its finances amid a stagnating economy and pressure from hosting over a million Syrian refugees. Political bickering has blocked the formation of a new government and is adding to the economic uncertainty.
“The high political event risk and very low fiscal policy effectiveness embedded in Lebanon's credit profile reflect Moody's assessment that the capacity for a government to implement significant fiscal consolidation is limited, even if a government were formed in the near future,” Moody’s said. “A continuing delay in the formation of a government would add to Lebanon's liquidity pressures, increasing the potential size, perimeter and urgency of such a liability management exercise in future.”
The country's existing woes worsened when earlier this month the country’s finance minister spooked markets with talk of a debt restructure only to deny the plans to various media outlets a day later.
Ali Khalil’s statements made it more costly to insure Lebanon’s debt and rattled investors holding Lebanese paper, with bond prices plunging to a record low, only to recover later.
"The downgrade is the cost of the procrastination and obstructionism in the formation of the government," said Nassib Ghobril, chief economist of Byblos Bank.
However, Mr Ghobril also criticised the rating agency for not waiting for end-of-year indicators, like the balance of payments, the balance sheet of commercial banks, or the fiscal outcome, as the Finance Ministry has only published budget results up until September 2018 and not for the full year, and as the latest balance of payments results and the balance sheet of commercial banks are for November.
"Another reason for the downgrade is rather unconvincing, as the agency considers that measures that Lebanese authorities might take to reduce debtservicing cost would consist of an implicit default on Lebanon’s obligations. However, the government has not specified any measures yet, and efforts to reduce debt servicing cost are usually a positive step," added Mr Ghobril.
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Read more:
Lebanon's lucky streak may be fading in face of mounting economic woes
Lebanon’s business conditions in July deteriorate to near two-year low
IMF hopeful of a new government, economic reforms in Lebanon
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Lebanon’s debt to GDP ratio could balloon to 180 per cent by 2023 if the government does not undertake the necessary reforms to narrow its fiscal deficit, which may reach 10 per cent of GDP amid the current geopolitical tensions, the International Monetary Fund said in February last year.
Qatar pledged to buy $500 million (Dh1.83 billion) worth of Lebanese bonds this week, helping Beirut’s eurobonds rally the most since September.
In 2018, Lebanon received pledges of about $11bn in soft loans and grants from donors at the Cedre conference in Paris in return for implementing reforms.
However, the delay in forming a government has hampered disbursement of the aid.
“An event of default may be avoided if, upon its formation, a new government takes some fiscal consolidation measures that unlock the Cedre public investment package,” Moody’s said.
“Alternatively or in conjunction with Cedre inflows, more financial interventions by the central bank could contribute to avoiding a default event if that is achieved while maintaining broad financial stability.”
Moody's said the formation of a government is essential to coming up with plans to reduce spiralling debt and narrow the widening fiscal deficit.
Lebanon’s gross financing needs exceed 30 per cent of GDP, among the highest in the world, according to Moody’s. Debt servicing costs eat up nearly 50 per cent of government revenue.
“In the absence of significant fiscal consolidation and in the context of markedly slowing capital inflows and bank deposits, reliance on the Banque du Liban (the central bank) to suppress the government’s financing costs in order to prevent a yet higher debt servicing bill is increasingly challenging to reconcile with the central bank’s objective of maintaining financial stability,” Moody’s said.
“Covering this year’s fiscal deficit and eurobond maturities without drawing on foreign exchange reserves would require bank deposit inflows of $6bn to 7bn, compared to $4bn to 5bn estimated in 2018.”
That scenario stands in stark contrast to 2008-2009 when the country was able to survive the global financial crisis with high interest rates on deposits that garnered monthly inflows as high as $1.5bn.
Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
UAE%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3EMuhammad%20Waseem%20(captain)%2C%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20Aryan%20Lakra%2C%20Ashwanth%20Valthapa%2C%20Asif%20Khan%2C%20Aryansh%20Sharma%2C%20CP%20Rizwaan%2C%20Hazrat%20Billal%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%20and%20Zawar%20Farid.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
The specs: 2019 Audi A8
Price From Dh390,000
Engine 3.0L V6 turbo
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 345hp @ 5,000rpm
Torque 500Nm @ 1,370rpm
Fuel economy, combined 7.5L / 100km
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
All about the Sevens
Cape Town Sevens on Saturday and Sunday: Pools A – South Africa, Kenya, France, Russia; B – New Zealand, Australia, Spain, United States; C – England, Scotland, Argentina, Uganda; D – Fiji, Samoa, Canada, Wales
HSBC World Sevens Series standing after first leg in Dubai 1 South Africa; 2 New Zealand; 3 England; 4 Fiji; 5 Australia; 6 Samoa; 7 Kenya; 8 Scotland; 9 France; 10 Spain; 11 Argentina; 12 Canada; 13 Wales; 14 Uganda; 15 United States; 16 Russia
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
RESULTS
6.30pm: Emirates Holidays Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Lady Snazz, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
7.05pm: Arabian Adventures Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Zhou Storm, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
7.40pm: Emirates Skywards Handicap (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Rich And Famous, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.15pm: Emirates Airline Conditions (TB) Dh 120,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Rio Angie, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Emirates Sky Cargo (TB) Dh 92,500 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Kinver Edge, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
9.15pm: Emirates.com (TB) Dh 95,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Firnas, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
RESULTS
5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,400m
Winner: AF Tathoor, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 1,000m
Winner: Dahawi, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 2,000m
Winner: Aiz Alawda, Fernando Jara, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 2,000m
Winner: ES Nahawand, Fernando Jara, Mohammed Daggash
7pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Winked, Connor Beasley, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Al Ain Mile Group 3 (PA) Dh350,000 1,600m
Winner: Somoud, Connor Beasley, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
8pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Al Jazi, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
Financial considerations before buying a property
Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.
“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says.
Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.
Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier.
Turning%20waste%20into%20fuel
%3Cp%3EAverage%20amount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20at%20DIC%20factory%20every%20month%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EApproximately%20106%2C000%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAmount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20from%201%20litre%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%20%3Cstrong%3E920ml%20(92%25)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETime%20required%20for%20one%20full%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%20used%20cooking%20oil%20to%20biofuel%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EOne%20day%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EEnergy%20requirements%20for%20one%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%201%2C000%20litres%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%96%AA%20Electricity%20-%201.1904%20units%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Water-%2031%20litres%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Diesel%20%E2%80%93%2026.275%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Points classification after Stage 4
1. Arnaud Demare (France / FDJ) 124
2. Marcel Kittel (Germany / Quick-Step) 81
3. Michael Matthews (Australia / Sunweb) 66
4. Andre Greipel (Germany / Lotto) 63
5. Alexander Kristoff (Norway / Katusha) 43
Scoreline
Arsenal 3
Aubameyang (28'), Welbeck (38', 81')
Red cards: El Neny (90' 3)
Southampton 2
Long (17'), Austin (73')
Red cards: Stephens (90' 2)
Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHayvn%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristopher%20Flinos%2C%20Ahmed%20Ismail%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efinancial%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eundisclosed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESize%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2044%20employees%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eseries%20B%20in%20the%20second%20half%20of%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHilbert%20Capital%2C%20Red%20Acre%20Ventures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
