Economic growth in Oman is expected to accelerate this year and next, as the biggest Middle Eastern oil producer outside Opec boosts oil and gas exports, BMI Research said.
Real gross domestic product - GDP adjusted for inflation - is projected to expand by 3.2 per cent in 2018 and 3.6 per cent in 2019, from an estimated 0.6 per cent last year, BMI, a unit of Fitch Ratings said in a report released on Thursday. However, the outlook from 2020 and beyond is more bearish on oil and gas output and real GDP is expected to moderate, unless the sultanate makes new oil and gas discoveries, it said.
“We expect Oman to see a substantial uptick in real GDP growth over the coming quarters, on the back of rising hydrocarbon sector output," BMI said. "Oil and gas production gains will facilitate an increase in exports, as well as government revenue, which in turn will have knock-on effects on government consumption, fixed investment and private consumption.
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Read more:
Moody's cuts Oman's rating on fiscal deficit, subdued economic growth
Oman unveils expansionary budget for 2018 with similar deficit to 2017
Oman’s banking system outlook changed to negative, Moody's says
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Overall, BMI estimates Oman’s production of crude oil, refined petroleum products and natural gas to expand by 5.2 per cent in 2018 and 3.2 per cent in 2019, from 2 per cent in 2017. The recently initiated production at the Khazzan tight gas field will offer a massive boost to gas output, driving overall hydrocarbon sector growth, with oil production in particular, set to climb in 2019.
BMI forecasts an average Brent price of $75 per barrel in 2019 and $67 in 2018, which are both higher than $54 per barrel in 2017. It expects 2018 will mark the end of Opec-stipulated oil supply cuts, facilitating an uptick in production levels for producers such as Oman.
Oil proceeds make up about 70 per cent of the Oman’s government revenue. The decline in oil prices has forced Muscat to raise debt and privatise some state assets. The sultanate, which is trying to diversify its economy and cut its dependence on hydrocarbons, does not have access to the large cash buffers enjoyed by some of its GCC peers, and therefore has to rely more heavily on capital markets to plug fiscal deficits.
Moody's Investors Service this week downgraded the long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings of Oman by a notch to Baa3. The agency cited larger fiscal deficits and the ongoing weakening of its economy due to subdued growth in the coming years.
The rating agency forecasts Oman’s fiscal deficit to remain at 5 to 7 per cent of GDP in the next five years. The government’s debt burden will exceed 50 per cent of GDP by 2019 and rise above 60 per cent by 2021, up from 40.5 per cent at end-2017. The Omani government, which sold $5 billion worth of bonds a year ago, tapped the debt markets again in January via a $6.5bn bond, the country's largest.
SPECS
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'Downton Abbey: A New Era'
Director: Simon Curtis
Cast: Hugh Bonneville, Elizabeth McGovern, Maggie Smith, Michelle Dockery, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter and Phyllis Logan
Rating: 4/5
UAE%20medallists%20at%20Asian%20Games%202023
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Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
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Most wanted allegations
- Benjamin Macann, 32: involvement in cocaine smuggling gang.
- Jack Mayle, 30: sold drugs from a phone line called the Flavour Quest.
- Callum Halpin, 27: over the 2018 murder of a rival drug dealer.
- Asim Naveed, 29: accused of being the leader of a gang that imported cocaine.
- Calvin Parris, 32: accused of buying cocaine from Naveed and selling it on.
- John James Jones, 31: allegedly stabbed two people causing serious injuries.
- Callum Michael Allan, 23: alleged drug dealing and assaulting an emergency worker.
- Dean Garforth, 29: part of a crime gang that sold drugs and guns.
- Joshua Dillon Hendry, 30: accused of trafficking heroin and crack cocain.
- Mark Francis Roberts, 28: grievous bodily harm after a bungled attempt to steal a £60,000 watch.
- James ‘Jamie’ Stevenson, 56: for arson and over the seizure of a tonne of cocaine.
- Nana Oppong, 41: shot a man eight times in a suspected gangland reprisal attack.
UAE rugby season
FIXTURES
West Asia Premiership
Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Knights Eagles
Dubai Tigers v Bahrain
Jebel Ali Dragons v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Division 1
Dubai Sharks v Dubai Hurricanes II
Al Ain Amblers v Dubai Knights Eagles II
Dubai Tigers II v Abu Dhabi Saracens
Jebel Ali Dragons II v Abu Dhabi Harlequins II
Sharjah Wanderers v Dubai Exiles II
LAST SEASON
West Asia Premiership
Winners – Bahrain
Runners-up – Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership
Winners – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners-up – Jebel Ali Dragons
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners – Dubai Hurricanes
Runners-up – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Conference
Winners – Dubai Tigers
Runners-up – Al Ain Amblers
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
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Company%20Profile
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team's top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
Oppenheimer
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Company%20Profile
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Slow loris biog
From: Lonely Loris is a Sunda slow loris, one of nine species of the animal native to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore
Status: Critically endangered, and listed as vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature red list due to growing demand in the global exotic pet trade. It is one of the most popular primate species found at Indonesian pet markets
Likes: Sleeping, which they do for up to 18 hours a day. When they are awake, they like to eat fruit, insects, small birds and reptiles and some types of vegetation
Dislikes: Sunlight. Being a nocturnal animal, the slow loris wakes around sunset and is active throughout the night
Superpowers: His dangerous elbows. The slow loris’s doe eyes may make it look cute, but it is also deadly. The only known venomous primate, it hisses and clasps its paws and can produce a venom from its elbow that can cause anaphylactic shock and even death in humans
ENGLAND SQUAD
Joe Root (captain), Dom Sibley, Rory Burns, Dan Lawrence, Ben Stokes, Ollie Pope, Ben Foakes (wicketkeeper), Moeen Ali, Olly Stone, Chris Woakes, Jack Leach, Stuart Broad
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
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