The expected re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran will dent its consumer outlook in 2018 and beyond, as the country’s economy stalls, and high unemployment holds back domestic consumption.
“The consumer outlook in Iran had already been under pressure prior to the US’ withdrawal from the nuclear deal and will only deteriorate further,” BMI Research, a Fitch Group company, said in a report.
Consumer-facing companies are also less likely to want to do business in Iran following President Donald Trump’s decision to exit the Iran nuclear agreement earlier this month, hampering the sector’s growth.
“The US sanctions will make Iran’s business environment more difficult to operate in as not only does the withdrawal block American firms from doing business in the country, but it also bars other foreign firms who are doing business in Iran from accessing the US banking and financial systems,” BMI said. “Firms that also have exposure to the US market are therefore unlikely to want to maintain or expand their Iranian presence for fear of US sanction-related penalties and backlash in the US market.”
Iran is one of the largest consumer markets in the Middle East and North Africa, with a sizeable young consumer base. However, political tensions have delayed regulatory reforms to develop the private sector, and deteriorating economic conditions, high inflation along with rising unemployment have led to widespread protests. The country's economy made saw some improvement following the removal of US and EU sanctions after the nuclear deal was inked in 2015. However the economy is expected to contract this year as oil exports and foreign investment ebb after the US withdrawal and subsequent re-imposition of American sanctions.
Iran's economy will grow 3.1 per cent in 2018 and 0.8 per cent in 2019, BMI said in a revised forecast last week. It had estimated growth at 4.3 per cent and 4.5 per cent previously.
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Read more:
Iran’s economy to deteriorate following the re-imposition of US sanctions, BMI says
Total may need to offload Iran gas stake amid looming US sanctions, analysts
Exclusive: Total to apply for waiver if US withdraws from Iran deal
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Unemployment in Iran rose to 11.8 per cent of the labour force as of March 2018, as recent upticks in hydrocarbon exports and foreign investment failed to spur job creation. Youth unemployment is especially high, standing at 28.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2017, up from 27.3 per cent in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile, the depreciation of the rial is expected to place inflationary pressure on Iran’s consumer sector. Inflation reached 8.3 per cent year-on-year in March 2018 and is expected to average 10.5 per cent in 2018, up from 10 per cent in 2017, according to BMI. This week, Iran sought to halt the rial's decline by lowering its official value versus the dollar implying it is likely to let the value of the currency shift against the greenback based on supply and demand but avoid a free-fall, Reuters reported. The move follows a crackdown by Tehran last month aimed at stamping out a free currency market and the government unifying official and free-market rates for the currency at a single value of 42,000 rial to the dollar.
BMI expects domestic investment and consumption will remain restricted by limited credit availability. Interest rates are in the double digits and many banks are reluctant to lend to the private sector, after efforts to recapitalise and restructure the banking sector failed amid political tensions, the report said.
The currency conundrum
Russ Mould, investment director at online trading platform AJ Bell, says almost every major currency has challenges right now. “The US has a huge budget deficit, the euro faces political friction and poor growth, sterling is bogged down by Brexit, China’s renminbi is hit by debt fears while slowing Chinese growth is hurting commodity exporters like Australia and Canada.”
Most countries now actively want a weak currency to make their exports more competitive. “China seems happy to let the renminbi drift lower, the Swiss are still running quantitative easing at full tilt and central bankers everywhere are actively talking down their currencies or offering only limited support," says Mr Mould.
This is a race to the bottom, and everybody wants to be a winner.
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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What is double taxation?
- Americans living abroad file taxes with the Internal Revenue Service, which can cost hundreds of dollars to complete even though about 60 per cent do not owe taxes, according to the Taxpayer Advocate Service
- Those obligations apply to millions of Americans residing overseas – estimates range from 3.9 million to 5.5 million – including so-called "accidental Americans" who are unaware they hold dual citizenship
- The double taxation policy has been a contentious issue for decades, with many overseas Americans feeling that it punishes them for pursuing opportunities abroad
- Unlike most countries, the US follows a citizenship-based taxation system, meaning that Americans must file taxes annually, even if they do not earn any income in the US.
How to get exposure to gold
Although you can buy gold easily on the Dubai markets, the problem with buying physical bars, coins or jewellery is that you then have storage, security and insurance issues.
A far easier option is to invest in a low-cost exchange traded fund (ETF) that invests in the precious metal instead, for example, ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) and iShares Physical Gold (SGLN) both track physical gold. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF invests directly in mining companies.
Alternatively, BlackRock Gold & General seeks to achieve long-term capital growth primarily through an actively managed portfolio of gold mining, commodity and precious-metal related shares. Its largest portfolio holdings include gold miners Newcrest Mining, Barrick Gold Corp, Agnico Eagle Mines and the NewMont Goldcorp.
Brave investors could take on the added risk of buying individual gold mining stocks, many of which have performed wonderfully well lately.
London-listed Centamin is up more than 70 per cent in just three months, although in a sign of its volatility, it is down 5 per cent on two years ago. Trans-Siberian Gold, listed on London's alternative investment market (AIM) for small stocks, has seen its share price almost quadruple from 34p to 124p over the same period, but do not assume this kind of runaway growth can continue for long
However, buying individual equities like these is highly risky, as their share prices can crash just as quickly, which isn't what what you want from a supposedly safe haven.
Civil%20War
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Company%20Profile
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The biog
Nickname: Mama Nadia to children, staff and parents
Education: Bachelors degree in English Literature with Social work from UAE University
As a child: Kept sweets on the window sill for workers, set aside money to pay for education of needy families
Holidays: Spends most of her days off at Senses often with her family who describe the centre as part of their life too
Book%20Details
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EXPATS
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
City's slump
L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1
The Old Slave and the Mastiff
Patrick Chamoiseau
Translated from the French and Creole by Linda Coverdale
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, second leg:
Liverpool (0) v Barcelona (3), Tuesday, 11pm UAE
Game is on BeIN Sports
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The Rub of Time: Bellow, Nabokov, Hitchens, Travolta, Trump and Other Pieces 1986-2016
Martin Amis,
Jonathan Cape
EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Captain Marvel
Director: Anna Boden, Ryan Fleck
Starring: Brie Larson, Samuel L Jackson, Jude Law, Ben Mendelsohn
4/5 stars
T20 World Cup Qualifier
Final: Netherlands beat PNG by seven wickets
Qualified teams
1. Netherlands
2. PNG
3. Ireland
4. Namibia
5. Scotland
6. Oman
T20 World Cup 2020, Australia
Group A: Sri Lanka, PNG, Ireland, Oman
Group B: Bangladesh, Netherlands, Namibia, Scotland
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)