Saudi Arabia’s economic growth is set to rise to 2.5 per cent by the end of this year and 2.7 per cent in 2019 up from 2017 when low oil prices squeezed state revenues and hampered growth, according to new forecasts from Moody’s Investors Service.
"Our GDP forecasts are significantly higher because of higher oil production and higher oil prices," said Alexander Perjessy, vice-president and analyst at the rating agency, in an email to The National on Saturday.
“Higher oil prices and reasonably strong expenditure control underpins the improvement in the fiscal forecasts.” The kingdom’s GDP growth shrank 0.9 per cent in 2017, the lowest in decades, according to Moody’s.
The world’s largest oil exporter has historically experienced strong growth rates, supported by substantial public sector spending increases when oil prices were high. However, real GDP growth has decelerated since 2014, mainly due to fiscal consolidation.
“Although government spending has increased during 2018, we expect a degree of fiscal restraint will continue over the coming years and project average annual real GDP growth of 2.4 per cent over 2018-2021," Moody’s said in its twice-yearly research update for the kingdom, authored by Mr Perjessy.
This is lower than the 4.6 per cent recorded in 2011-2016.
Moody’s has given Saudi Arabia an A1 ‘stable’ rating. The country’s credit profile is “underpinned by the government’s robust balance sheet and substantial external liquidity buffers”, the report said. “On balance, we think Saudi Arabia's fiscal position remains comparatively robust.”
However, government revenues remain vulnerable to declines in oil prices, and proposed fiscal reforms will remain at risk from socioeconomic challenges including high unemployment, population growth and geopolitical risk.
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Read more:
Saudi Arabia's rating affirmed by Moody’s on fiscal consolidation push
S&P affirms Saudi Arabia's credit rating on growth prospects, spending boost
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Saudi Arabia’s fiscal balance deteriorated sharply between 2014 and 2016 when oil prices were low, with large surpluses giving rise to double-digit deficits in 2015 and 2016. Since then, the deficit has moderated to 9 per cent of GDP in 2017 and the degree of vulnerability to oil prices has been reduced due to reforms such as public spending cuts and measures that boosted the non-oil economy to 9.9 per cent of GDP in 2017, from 4.5 percent of GDP in 2014, Moody’s said.
Public debt is expected to remain well below 25 per cent of GDP in the medium term and small relative to the government’s robust financial buffers.
The government’s debt burden was less than 20 per cent of GDP at the end of 2017 and is expected to improve “significantly” over the next two years.
FIGHT CARD
Fights start from 6pm Friday, January 31
Catchweight 82kg
Piotr Kuberski (POL) v Ahmed Saeb (IRQ)
Women’s bantamweight
Cornelia Holm (SWE) v Corinne Laframboise (CAN)
Welterweight
Omar Hussein (JOR) v Vitalii Stoian (UKR)
Welterweight
Josh Togo (LEB) v Ali Dyusenov (UZB)
Flyweight
Isaac Pimentel (BRA) v Delfin Nawen (PHI)
Catchweight 80kg
Seb Eubank (GBR) v Mohamed El Mokadem (EGY)
Lightweight
Mohammad Yahya (UAE) v Ramadan Noaman (EGY)
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) v Reydon Romero (PHI)
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Juho Valamaa (FIN)
Featherweight
Elias Boudegzdame (ALG) v Austin Arnett (USA)
Super heavyweight
Roman Wehbe (LEB) v Maciej Sosnowski (POL)
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
2.0
Director: S Shankar
Producer: Lyca Productions; presented by Dharma Films
Cast: Rajnikanth, Akshay Kumar, Amy Jackson, Sudhanshu Pandey
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
TOURNAMENT INFO
Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
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THE DETAILS
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Director: Ron Howard
2/5
COMPANY PROFILE
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Kanguva
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Wicked
Iraq and the virus
Results
United States beat UAE by three wickets
United States beat Scotland by 35 runs
UAE v Scotland – no result
United States beat UAE by 98 runs
Scotland beat United States by four wickets
Fixtures
Sunday, 10am, ICC Academy, Dubai - UAE v Scotland
Admission is free
Healthy tips to remember
Here, Dr Mohamed El Abiary, paediatric consultant at Al Zahra Hospital Dubai, shares some advice for parents whose children are fasting during the holy month of Ramadan:
Gradual fasting and golden points - For children under the age of 10, follow a step-by-step approach to fasting and don't push them beyond their limits. Start with a few hours fasting a day and increase it to a half fast and full fast when the child is ready. Every individual's ability varies as per the age and personal readiness. You could introduce a points system that awards the child and offers them encouragement when they make progress with the amount of hours they fast
Why fast? - Explain to your child why they are fasting. By shedding light on the importance of abstaining from food and drink, children may feel more encouraged to give it there all during the observance period. It is also a good opportunity to teach children about controlling urges, doing good for others and instilling healthy food habits
Sleep and suhoor - A child needs adequate sleep every night - at least eight hours. Make sure to set a routine early bedtime so he/she has sufficient time to wake up for suhoor, which is an essential meal at the beginning of the day
Good diet - Nutritious food is crucial to ensuring a healthy Ramadan for children. They must refrain from eating too much junk food as well as canned goods and snacks and drinks high in sugar. Foods that are rich in nutrients, vitamins and proteins, like fruits, fresh meats and vegetables, make for a good balanced diet
COMPANY%20PROFILE
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.6-litre V6
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 285bhp
Torque: 353Nm
Price: TBA
On sale: Q2, 2020
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
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Kareem Shaheen: Even a pandemic could not unite today's America
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If you go
While you're here
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Sholto Byrnes: BLM has turned so many people off – and that matters
Hussein Ibish: Will Democrats follow Republicans to the political fringe?
Olivia Cuthbert: 'Reign of terror' and the rule of racism in America
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Company%20Profile
What is an ETF?
An exchange traded fund is a type of investment fund that can be traded quickly and easily, just like stocks and shares. They come with no upfront costs aside from your brokerage's dealing charges and annual fees, which are far lower than on traditional mutual investment funds. Charges are as low as 0.03 per cent on one of the very cheapest (and most popular), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, with the maximum around 0.75 per cent.
There is no fund manager deciding which stocks and other assets to invest in, instead they passively track their chosen index, country, region or commodity, regardless of whether it goes up or down.
The first ETF was launched as recently as 1993, but the sector boasted $5.78 billion in assets under management at the end of September as inflows hit record highs, according to the latest figures from ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five largest providers BlackRock’s iShares, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisers, Deutsche Bank X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
While the best-known track major indices such as MSCI World, the S&P 500 and FTSE 100, you can also invest in specific countries or regions, large, medium or small companies, government bonds, gold, crude oil, cocoa, water, carbon, cattle, corn futures, currency shifts or even a stock market crash.
The British in India: Three Centuries of Ambition and Experience
by David Gilmour
Allen Lane
The specs: 2017 Lotus Evora Sport 410
Price, base / as tested Dh395,000 / Dh420,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission Six-speed manual
Power 410hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque 420Nm @ 3,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.7L / 100km
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
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Michael Young: Where is Lebanon headed?
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Raghida Dergham: We have to bounce back
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Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Company%20Profile
Related
SHOW COURTS ORDER OF PLAY
Centre Court (4pm UAE/12pm GMT)
Victoria Azarenka (BLR) v Heather Watson (GBR)
Rafael Nadal (ESP x4) v Karen Khachanov (RUS x30)
Andy Murray (GBR x1) v Fabio Fognini (ITA x28)
Court 1 (4pm UAE)
Steve Johnson (USA x26) v Marin Cilic (CRO x7)
Johanna Konta (GBR x6) v Maria Sakkari (GRE)
Naomi Osaka (JPN) v Venus Williams (USA x10)
Court 2 (2.30pm UAE)
Aljaz Bedene (GBR) v Gilles Muller (LUX x16)
Peng Shuai (CHN) v Simona Halep (ROM x2)
Jelena Ostapenko (LAT x13) v Camila Giorgi (ITA)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA x12) v Sam Querrey (USA x24)
Court 3 (2.30pm UAE)
Kei Nishikori (JPN x9) v Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP x18)
Carina Witthoeft (GER) v Elina Svitolina (UKR x4)
Court 12 (2.30pm UAE)
Dominika Cibulkova (SVK x8) v Ana Konjuh (CRO x27)
Kevin Anderson (RSA) v Ruben Bemelmans (BEL)
Court 18 (2.30pm UAE)
Caroline Garcia (FRA x21) v Madison Brengle (USA)
Benoit Paire (FRA) v Jerzy Janowicz (POL)
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
Five%20calorie-packed%20Ramadan%20drinks
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Barcelona v Liverpool, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Liverpool v Barcelona, Tuesday, May 7, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports