A broker at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, central Germany. European stocks are underperforming compared to US firms. /Daniel Roland/AP
A broker at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, central Germany. European stocks are underperforming compared to US firms. /Daniel Roland/AP

US stocks outperforming Europe but probably not for long



US corporate profit growth is outpacing European profit growth at the fastest pace on record, but the anomaly is unlikely to last.

The drivers of that divergence, such as the US tax cuts, a weak dollar, and disparity between share buybacks on either side of the Atlantic are fading, and some could even reverse in the second half of the year.

Certainly, the earnings gap now is remarkable. Based on comparative 12-month forward earnings per share, it's never been wider.

"We've never seen such a big gap. US and European earnings have always correlated, so this is a huge anomaly," said Martin Skanberg, a European equity portfolio manager at Schroders.

"The gap will close."

Mr Skanberg estimates that US earnings per share are around 60 to 70 per cent above the earnings peak in 2007, while European earnings are some 30 per cent below the peak in 2007.

Just under half the companies in the MSCI EMU (European) index have reported first-quarter (Q1) results so far, and profits are up just 0.2 per cent on the same period last year.

Around 80 per cent of the firms listed on the US S&P 500 have reported Q1 results, and earnings growth is running at 26 per cent.

Charlie Bilello at Pensions Partners reckons US earnings are growing even faster, at a 30 per cent rate. That's the fastest pace of year on year growth in more than seven years.

Yet Q1 this year will be the peak for US earnings growth.

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Read more:

Dollar index stays near four-month high on US economic strength perception 

Volatility in the pound leaves UAE expats cautious about remitting to the UK

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The rise in US Treasury yields to multi-year highs is altering the so-called equity risk premium, essentially the extra yield investors are paid to buy relatively risky equities over safer fixed income.

With 10-year US Treasury yields on the rise and now offering investors a pretty juicy 3 per cent, the US equity risk premium is under pressure.

It's a different story in the euro zone - bond yields are considerably lower, meaning equities offer a far more attractive return. Assuming all else unchanged, equity risk premia suggest European stocks are more appealing than US equities.

Of course, everything else never does remain the same, and one of the most important variables for international money managers is the euro/dollar exchange rate.

Last year, the dollar fell 12 per cent against the euro, its worst year since 2003. This boosted the dollar value of US profits accrued overseas, and at the same time had the opposite impact on European firms' profitability.

The dollar now appears to be in the early stages of a reversal, rebounding 4 per cent in the last three weeks to its highest since January. Wall Street is feeling the pinch, slipping nearly 4 per cent over the last three weeks.

If the dollar continues to drift higher and the euro lower, the impact on relative profitability should continue to favour Europe over Wall Street.

Another area where the European market could be poised to follow the US lead is share buybacks. Since 2010, S&P 500 companies have spent nearly $4 trillion on share buybacks, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

This has had a huge impact on Wall Street. And with Apple leading the way with its $23.5 billion buyback in Q1 and targeting up to $100bn in future repurchases, 2018 is on track to be another record year.

But Europe could finally be about to play catch up.

Mr Skanberg estimates European firms are sitting on over $1 trillion in cash. Much of that is in negative-yielding, short-term debt that could be used for investing, M&A, or share buybacks, he argues.

COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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MATCH INFO

Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)

Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm

The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed

Based: Muscat

Launch year: 2018

Number of employees: 40

Sector: Online food delivery

Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception 

GRAN%20TURISMO
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Neill%20Blomkamp%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20David%20Harbour%2C%20Orlando%20Bloom%2C%20Archie%20Madekwe%2C%20Darren%20Barnet%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Xpanceo

Started: 2018

Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov

Based: Dubai, UAE

Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality

Funding: $40 million

Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)

How to avoid crypto fraud
  • Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
  • Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
  • Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
  • Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
  • Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
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  • Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.5-litre%20V12%20and%20three%20electric%20motors%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C015hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C500Nm%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Early%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh2%20million%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE%20set%20for%20Scotland%20series
%3Cp%3EThe%20UAE%20will%20host%20Scotland%20for%20a%20three-match%20T20I%20series%20at%20the%20Dubai%20International%20Stadium%20next%20month.%3Cbr%3EThe%20two%20sides%20will%20start%20their%20Cricket%20World%20Cup%20League%202%20campaigns%20with%20a%20tri-series%20also%20involving%20Canada%2C%20starting%20on%20January%2029.%3Cbr%3EThat%20series%20will%20be%20followed%20by%20a%20bilateral%20T20%20series%20on%20March%2011%2C%2013%20and%2014.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten

Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a  month before Reaching the Last Mile.

Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

 

The specs: 2019 BMW i8 Roadster

Price, base: Dh708,750

Engine: 1.5L three-cylinder petrol, plus 11.6 kWh lithium-ion battery

Transmission: Six-speed automatic

Power: 374hp (total)

Torque: 570Nm (total)

Fuel economy, combined: 2.0L / 100km

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

On sale: Now

Islamic%20Architecture%3A%20A%20World%20History
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The specs

Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now

CHINESE GRAND PRIX STARTING GRID

1st row 
Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)

2nd row 
Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes-GP)
Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)

3rd row 
Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing)
Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull Racing)

4th row 
Nico Hulkenberg (Renault)
Sergio Perez (Force India)

5th row 
Carlos Sainz Jr (Renault)
Romain Grosjean (Haas)

6th row 
Kevin Magnussen (Haas)
Esteban Ocon (Force India)

7th row 
Fernando Alonso (McLaren)
Stoffel Vandoorne (McLaren)

8th row 
Brendon Hartley (Toro Rosso)
Sergey Sirotkin (Williams)

9th row 
Pierre Gasly (Toro Rosso)
Lance Stroll (Williams)

10th row 
Charles Leclerc (Sauber)
arcus Ericsson (Sauber)

Results:

Men's wheelchair 800m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 1.44.79; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 1.45.88; 3. Isaac Towers (GBR) 1.46.46.

Game Changer

Director: Shankar 

Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram

Rating: 2/5

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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A new relationship with the old country

Treaty of Friendship between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates

The United kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates; Considering that the United Arab Emirates has assumed full responsibility as a sovereign and independent State; Determined that the long-standing and traditional relations of close friendship and cooperation between their peoples shall continue; Desiring to give expression to this intention in the form of a Treaty Friendship; Have agreed as follows:

ARTICLE 1 The relations between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates shall be governed by a spirit of close friendship. In recognition of this, the Contracting Parties, conscious of their common interest in the peace and stability of the region, shall: (a) consult together on matters of mutual concern in time of need; (b) settle all their disputes by peaceful means in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.

ARTICLE 2 The Contracting Parties shall encourage education, scientific and cultural cooperation between the two States in accordance with arrangements to be agreed. Such arrangements shall cover among other things: (a) the promotion of mutual understanding of their respective cultures, civilisations and languages, the promotion of contacts among professional bodies, universities and cultural institutions; (c) the encouragement of technical, scientific and cultural exchanges.

ARTICLE 3 The Contracting Parties shall maintain the close relationship already existing between them in the field of trade and commerce. Representatives of the Contracting Parties shall meet from time to time to consider means by which such relations can be further developed and strengthened, including the possibility of concluding treaties or agreements on matters of mutual concern.

ARTICLE 4 This Treaty shall enter into force on today’s date and shall remain in force for a period of ten years. Unless twelve months before the expiry of the said period of ten years either Contracting Party shall have given notice to the other of its intention to terminate the Treaty, this Treaty shall remain in force thereafter until the expiry of twelve months from the date on which notice of such intention is given.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF the undersigned have signed this Treaty.

DONE in duplicate at Dubai the second day of December 1971AD, corresponding to the fifteenth day of Shawwal 1391H, in the English and Arabic languages, both texts being equally authoritative.

Signed

Geoffrey Arthur  Sheikh Zayed

The biog

Birthday: February 22, 1956

Born: Madahha near Chittagong, Bangladesh

Arrived in UAE: 1978

Exercise: At least one hour a day on the Corniche, from 5.30-6am and 7pm to 8pm.

Favourite place in Abu Dhabi? “Everywhere. Wherever you go, you can relax.”

THE SPECS

Engine: 1.5-litre, four-cylinder turbo

Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch automatic

Power: 169bhp

Torque: 250Nm

Price: Dh54,500

On sale: now

Rebel%20Moon%20-%20Part%20One%3A%20A%20Child%20of%20Fire
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EZack%20Snyder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESofia%20Boutella%2C%20Djimon%20Hounsou%2C%20Ed%20Skrein%2C%20Michiel%20Huisman%2C%20Charlie%20Hunnam%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
TO A LAND UNKNOWN

Director: Mahdi Fleifel

Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa

Rating: 4.5/5

Our legal consultants

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Pakistan Super League

Previous winners

2016 Islamabad United

2017 Peshawar Zalmi

2018 Islamabad United

2019 Quetta Gladiators

 

Most runs Kamran Akmal – 1,286

Most wickets Wahab Riaz –65

Day 1, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance

Moment of the day Dimuth Karunaratne had batted with plenty of pluck, and no little skill, in getting to within seven runs of a first-day century. Then, while he ran what he thought was a comfortable single to mid-on, his batting partner Dinesh Chandimal opted to stay at home. The opener was run out by the length of the pitch.

Stat of the day - 1 One six was hit on Day 1. The boundary was only breached 18 times in total over the course of the 90 overs. When it did arrive, the lone six was a thing of beauty, as Niroshan Dickwella effortlessly clipped Mohammed Amir over the square-leg boundary.

The verdict Three wickets down at lunch, on a featherbed wicket having won the toss, and Sri Lanka’s fragile confidence must have been waning. Then Karunaratne and Chandimal's alliance of precisely 100 gave them a foothold in the match. Dickwella’s free-spirited strokeplay meant the Sri Lankans were handily placed at 227 for four at the close.

If you go

Flights

Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh with a stop in Yangon from Dh3,075, and Etihad flies from Abu Dhabi to Phnom Penh with its partner Bangkok Airlines from Dh2,763. These trips take about nine hours each and both include taxes. From there, a road transfer takes at least four hours; airlines including KC Airlines (www.kcairlines.com) offer quick connecting flights from Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville from about $100 (Dh367) return including taxes. Air Asia, Malindo Air and Malaysian Airlines fly direct from Kuala Lumpur to Sihanoukville from $54 each way. Next year, direct flights are due to launch between Bangkok and Sihanoukville, which will cut the journey time by a third.

The stay

Rooms at Alila Villas Koh Russey (www.alilahotels.com/ kohrussey) cost from $385 per night including taxes.

Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

A cryptocurrency primer for beginners

Cryptocurrency Investing  for Dummies – by Kiana Danial 

There are several primers for investing in cryptocurrencies available online, including e-books written by people whose credentials fall apart on the second page of your preferred search engine. 

Ms Danial is a finance coach and former currency analyst who writes for Nasdaq. Her broad-strokes primer (2019) breaks down investing in cryptocurrency into baby steps, while explaining the terms and technologies involved.

Although cryptocurrencies are a fast evolving world, this  book offers a good insight into the game as well as providing some basic tips, strategies and warning signs.

Begin your cryptocurrency journey here. 

Available at Magrudy’s , Dh104 

Veil (Object Lessons)
Rafia Zakaria
​​​​​​​Bloomsbury Academic

How to apply for a drone permit
  • Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
  • Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
  • Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
  • Submit their request
What are the regulations?
  • Fly it within visual line of sight
  • Never over populated areas
  • Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
  • Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
  • Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
  • Should have a live feed of the drone flight
  • Drones must weigh 5 kg or less