Federal Reserve plans for gradual interest-rate increases hinge on inflation rising to its 2 percent target, but it’s not showing up and they don’t know why. That’s undermining Chair Janet Yellen’s case for further policy tightening.
Over two days of congressional testimony last week, Yellen stuck to the Fed’s outlook for gradually rising inflation that would support additional hikes in their policy rate. That was before Friday’s consumer price index report that showed continued weak pricing power in June across a range of goods and services for the fourth consecutive month.
“There is no way of getting around it,” said Laura Rosner, a senior economist and partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives in New York. “The weakness is pretty broad and it’s partly happening in cyclical areas of the economy that might be slowing, like motor vehicles.”
At the Fed’s June policy meeting, and in her testimony before US. lawmakers, Yellen stuck with the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) baseline forecast, which predicts increasing resource constraints gradually lifting inflation and supporting another rate increase this year with three more in 2018.
She told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday that inflation risks were “two-sided,” dismissing some of the weakness in recent reports to “transitory” moves in some categories of the data series.
“It’s premature to conclude that the underlying inflation trend is falling well short of 2 per cent,” she said. At her June 14 press conference, Yellen said the committee continues to believe that with a strong labour market, “the conditions are in place for inflation to move up.”
The FOMC’s outlook and Yellen’s comments reflect forecasters’ bedrock understanding of how inflation works. They look at public expectations of prices, near-term inflation performance or “inertia,” and resource-use benchmarks such as estimates on what rate of unemployment begins to trigger higher compensation that fuels demand in the economy.
Expectations have been low but stable, while inflation inertia has shown little upward traction. Right now, central bankers are making a big bet that low rates of unemployment will boost prices eventually. Their estimate for the unemployment rate that keeps supply and demand in balance in the economy is 4.6 per cent. It’s been below that rate since March and stood at 4.4 per cent in June.
“They are saying: We don’t see the world as tremendously different and at some point domestic resource scarcity will push inflation up to 2 per cent,” said Michael Gapen, chief US economist at Barclays and a former member of Fed Board staff.
“As long as inertia is due to one-offs - that is, transitory and non-monetary, then they dismiss it,” Mr Gapen added. “But at some point you say maybe that is dumb and shift your tone. They are not there yet.”
US consumer prices slowed to a 1.6 per cent rate for the 12 months ending in June from 1.9 per cent in May.
Bloomberg
Company%20Profile
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULT
Al Hilal 4 Persepolis 0
Khribin (31', 54', 89'), Al Shahrani 40'
Red card: Otayf (Al Hilal, 49')
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
The specs: 2018 Dodge Durango SRT
Price, base / as tested: Dh259,000
Engine: 6.4-litre V8
Power: 475hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 640Nm @ 4,300rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.7L / 100km
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
Graduated from the American University of Sharjah
She is the eldest of three brothers and two sisters
Has helped solve 15 cases of electric shocks
Enjoys travelling, reading and horse riding
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
Favourite book: ‘The Art of Learning’ by Josh Waitzkin
Favourite film: Marvel movies
Favourite parkour spot in Dubai: Residence towers in Jumeirah Beach Residence
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
25%20Days%20to%20Aden
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Michael%20Knights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20256%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2026%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sonchiriya
Director: Abhishek Chaubey
Producer: RSVP Movies, Azure Entertainment
Cast: Sushant Singh Rajput, Manoj Bajpayee, Ashutosh Rana, Bhumi Pednekar, Ranvir Shorey
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 390bhp
Torque: 400Nm
Price: Dh340,000 ($92,579
HEADLINE HERE
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The%20specs
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%E2%80%98FSO%20Safer%E2%80%99%20-%20a%20ticking%20bomb
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Napoleon
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TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Command%20Z
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RESULT
Kolkata Knight Riders 169-7 (20 ovs)
Rajasthan Royals 144-4 (20 ovs)
Kolkata win by 25 runs
Next match
Sunrisers Hyderabad v Kolkata Knight Riders, Friday, 5.30pm
Springtime in a Broken Mirror,
Mario Benedetti, Penguin Modern Classics
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20Profile
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City's slump
L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1
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Rating: 4/5
EMILY%20IN%20PARIS%3A%20SEASON%203
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.