Cop28 was a major success that proved the doubters wrong, the head of the International Energy Agency has said at the World Economic Forum.
Speaking to The National at the annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Fatih Birol said Cop28 delivered on many fronts, most notably by securing a commitment to transition away from fossil fuels.
Mr Birol, a leading economist who is the IEA’s executive director, also played down suggestions that instability in the Middle East, including Houthi-led attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, will destabilise world oil markets.
“Cop28 provided a remarkable outcome … an important new destination for the world energy system,” he said.
Mr Birol recalled how, the previous January in Davos, he was asked about Dr Sultan Al Jaber becoming Cop28 President given his role in leading Adnoc.
“I was asked what I thought about his role, and I said I wouldn't write off Cop28. I have known him for a long time and we should give him a chance because he wants to deliver something good for all of us … and in the end Cop28 was a successful one. It gave a very strong momentum to clean energy transition.”
We got a lot of things that we wanted to get in order to push the clean energy transition
Fatih Birol,
executive director of International Energy Agency
He described the climate conference, held in Dubai's Expo City at the end of last year, as having been “very consequential” and said the UAE Consensus “shifted the climate conversation on the energy transition”.
Aside from the pledge to move away from fossil fuels based on the science, Mr Birol highlighted other outcomes such as commitments to triple global renewable energy capacity, double energy efficiency and to clamp down on the release of methane, which has a warming effect many times that of carbon dioxide for a given level of emissions.
“We got a lot of things that we wanted to get in order to push the clean energy transition,” he said.
Mr Birol also made it clear that the IEA will be joining the UAE in pushing for countries to fulfil the pledges made at Cop28 and took the time to look ahead to Cop29, which will be held in Azerbaijan in November, and Cop30 in Brazil in 2025.
He hopes the climate conference's next iteration will include the finalisation of financial mechanisms to support developing countries in dealing with climate change.
“I am going next week to Brazil to meet President Lula and the ministers to make sure that what we have achieved in Dubai is taken over by the G20,” he said.
At Cop28 significant progress was made on climate finance, including major pledges for the Green Climate Fund, which was set up through the UN to support developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change.
In total, $12.8 billion (Dh47.01 billion) has been pledged to the fund by 31 nations.
On instability in the Middle East, Mr Birol indicated that attacks on shipping in the Red Sea are not hurting oil production, but the impact on transport, with vessels having to take longer journeys, is pushing up costs in a “limited way”.
Prices rose following US-led attacks on Houthi rebels in Yemen this month, but not in a significant manner. Mr Birol thinks markets will stabilise provided a major oil-producing country does not get involved in the tensions.
He explained that “as long as there is no direct involvement of one or more major oil producing countries I expect this year, oil markets will be calm”.
On Thursday, the IEA again raised its oil demand outlook. It now predicts global consumption will rise by 1.24 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, representing the third consecutive upwards revision over the past three months, but remains below Opec's 2.25 million bpd projection.
Mr Birol said that “if there were no geopolitical developments, we would see a comfortable year this year, because we see substantial new oil coming from the Americas, the US, Canada, Brazil and Guayana, and when I look at the demand, it is much weaker than last year because the Chinese economy is slowing down. unless there are some geopolitical surprises”.
Mr Birol also concurred that countries in the Middle East are often unfairly criticised more often than other nations for continued high levels of oil production.
“Oil production is up from the Americas, by about 1.5 million barrels a day, meaning [that in] the so-called non-Opec countries and Americas, production is growing faster than global oil demand,” he said.
Mr Birol praised the UAE for diversifying its economy, drawing a contrast with other nations in the region where economic growth and oil prices remain closely linked.
“The UAE did embark on diversification, in many of the other countries there remains an iron link between oil and their economic growth,” he said.
In terms of priorities for this year, high on the list for Mr Birol is reducing the number of highly polluting cookstoves being used in sub-Saharan Africa, an issue he said he is “personally very passionate about”.
An international summit on the issue, being held at the IEA’s Paris headquarters on May 14, will “mobilise financial flows” to help deal with the problem.
In Africa, Mr Birol said, four out of five families use “primitive cookstoves” to prepare food, and these are typically powered by polluting fuels such as charcoal, wood and animal dung.
“This [pollution] is a major problem for women, because it is one of the top two reasons for premature death for women in Africa. Every year, half a million women die prematurely because of that,” he said.
The World Health Organisation has said that household air pollution as a whole is responsible for 7.7 per cent of all deaths worldwide.
The Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa will be chaired by Mr Birol, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan, and the Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store.
The 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos – in pictures
Essentials
The flights
Whether you trek after mountain gorillas in Rwanda, Uganda or the Congo, the most convenient international airport is in Rwanda’s capital city, Kigali. There are direct flights from Dubai a couple of days a week with RwandAir. Otherwise, an indirect route is available via Nairobi with Kenya Airways. Flydubai flies to Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, via Entebbe in Uganda. Expect to pay from US$350 (Dh1,286) return, including taxes.
The tours
Superb ape-watching tours that take in all three gorilla countries mentioned above are run by Natural World Safaris. In September, the company will be operating a unique Ugandan ape safari guided by well-known primatologist Ben Garrod.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, local operator Kivu Travel can organise pretty much any kind of safari throughout the Virunga National Park and elsewhere in eastern Congo.
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
MATCH INFO
Inter Milan 2 (Vecino 65', Barella 83')
Verona 1 (Verre 19' pen)
WHY%20AAYAN%20IS%20'PERFECT%20EXAMPLE'
%3Cp%3EDavid%20White%20might%20be%20new%20to%20the%20country%2C%20but%20he%20has%20clearly%20already%20built%20up%20an%20affinity%20with%20the%20place.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EAfter%20the%20UAE%20shocked%20Pakistan%20in%20the%20semi-final%20of%20the%20Under%2019%20Asia%20Cup%20last%20month%2C%20White%20was%20hugged%20on%20the%20field%20by%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20the%20team%E2%80%99s%20captain.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EWhite%20suggests%20that%20was%20more%20a%20sign%20of%20Aayan%E2%80%99s%20amiability%20than%20anything%20else.%20But%20he%20believes%20the%20young%20all-rounder%2C%20who%20was%20part%20of%20the%20winning%20Gulf%20Giants%20team%20last%20year%2C%20is%20just%20the%20sort%20of%20player%20the%20country%20should%20be%20seeking%20to%20produce%20via%20the%20ILT20.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20is%20a%20delightful%20young%20man%2C%E2%80%9D%20White%20said.%20%E2%80%9CHe%20played%20in%20the%20competition%20last%20year%20at%2017%2C%20and%20look%20at%20his%20development%20from%20there%20till%20now%2C%20and%20where%20he%20is%20representing%20the%20UAE.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20was%20influential%20in%20the%20U19%20team%20which%20beat%20Pakistan.%20He%20is%20the%20perfect%20example%20of%20what%20we%20are%20all%20trying%20to%20achieve%20here.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CIt%20is%20about%20the%20development%20of%20players%20who%20are%20going%20to%20represent%20the%20UAE%20and%20go%20on%20to%20help%20make%20UAE%20a%20force%20in%20world%20cricket.%E2%80%9D%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
JAPAN SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Masaaki Higashiguchi, Shuichi Gonda, Daniel Schmidt
Defenders: Yuto Nagatomo, Tomoaki Makino, Maya Yoshida, Sho Sasaki, Hiroki Sakai, Sei Muroya, Genta Miura, Takehiro Tomiyasu
Midfielders: Toshihiro Aoyama, Genki Haraguchi, Gaku Shibasaki, Wataru Endo, Junya Ito, Shoya Nakajima, Takumi Minamino, Hidemasa Morita, Ritsu Doan
Forwards: Yuya Osako, Takuma Asano, Koya Kitagawa
Mobile phone packages comparison
RESULT
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0 Al Ain 6
Al Ain: Caio (5', 73'), El Shahat (10'), Berg (65'), Khalil (83'), Al Ahbabi (90' 2)
