“You can be sure of Shell”, said a famous 1937 advertisement.
But in recent years, the oil firm has been clouded in uncertainty. Now, chief executive Wael Sawan has said he is open to moving the company’s primary listing to New York – bad news for Britain, Europe and compatriot BP.
The European oil supermajors have struggled for years under a serious discount to their American rivals, notably Chevron, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips.
The three US corporations trade at an average multiple to free cash flow of about 16, compared to just 7.5 of the four big Europeans – Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Eni. Given this underperformance, it’s not surprising that Mr Sawan has looked at all angles to raise Shell’s valuation.
Shell has already moved once in recent years. In 2022, it undid 115 years of history by cancelling its dual listing in the Netherlands, dropping the “Royal Dutch” part of its name, and shifting its headquarters to London. Previous chief executive Ben van Beurden confirmed the company looked at a primary US listing in 2021.
The undervaluation of the European oil companies stems from three causes. First, the general US market has strongly outperformed London’s FTSE, especially since 2016’s Brexit vote and the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic.
Second, investors have been deterred by a confused strategy from the European firms. They continue to be major oil and gas producers, but they may seek slowly to reduce output.
BP plans to see its production drop 10 per cent to 15 per cent by 2030, according to chief executive Murray Auchincloss.
However, this is still not considered to be in line with the Paris Agreement of 2015. Climate-focused investors and lenders will not finance oil and gas companies or projects in any case, no matter what green plans they have.
The European supermajors have yet to show they can make a financial success of low-carbon ventures in areas such as offshore wind power and electric vehicle charging.
Areas where they should have a competitive advantage, such as carbon capture and storage, sustainable aviation fuels, and advanced geothermal and hydrogen, suffer from inadequate, indecisive and unclear government policy across Europe.
Third, European companies face growing hostility from their host governments and legal systems.
In 2021, a Dutch court ordered Shell to cut its absolute greenhouse gas emissions – including those from fuels sold to customers – by 45 per cent by 2030. On Tuesday, a group of Swiss climate campaigners won their case arguing that the government had breached their human rights by failing to tackle climate change adequately.
And Britain’s opposition Labour Party, forecast to win power at a probable election this year, has said it will introduce a “proper windfall tax” on oil and gas production in the country, even though petroleum prices are not at windfall levels.
These issues impose severe restrictions on the European companies’ ability to capitalise on their legacy businesses. They are hampered in their ability to grow. BP has said, for example, that it will not enter new countries – ruling itself out of hotspots such as Guyana and Namibia.
They are absent from US shale entirely, or, as in the case of BP, have a subscale presence there. BPX, BP’s onshore US arm, last year produced less than half as much as Pioneer, the US’s tenth-largest producer.
Shale and the deepwater fields of Guyana will be the two crucial motors of growth this decade for both ExxonMobil and Chevron – assuming its deal to buy rival Hess closes.
Their lower valuation means the Europeans cannot use shares as currency for acquisitions, as ExxonMobil did when it bought Pioneer for $64.5 billion in October, or Chevron in its $53 billion acquisition of Hess the same month.
Conversely, they can become takeover targets. There have been rumours about international interest in BP, while a Shell takeover of its smaller British rival seems an obvious deal but does not answer the bigger question.
The French authorities would certainly block any approach to acquire TotalEnergies.
The British government might warn off any foreign purchaser of Shell or BP. But how could it do that while posing straight-facedly as a climate leader?
The European oil companies retain great strengths: their legacy assets, skilled people and worldwide relationships. Of non-state companies, Shell and TotalEnergies lead the global liquefied natural gas business. Shell and BP have extremely profitable trading units, a strategy ExxonMobil has failed to emulate.
It would be a calamitous own-goal for European governments to kill off their oil companies or force them to leave. This will do nothing to reduce emissions. The assets will either move to the US or another more oil-friendly jurisdiction, be bought up by international rivals such as Chinese or Gulf companies, or pass into private hands, less scrutinised over climate.
In the sphere of coal, a dirtier fossil fuel, Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský has built an empire by picking up unloved assets from others. Private investors like him, as well as traditional private equity groups, will undoubtedly do the same as listed oil companies are compelled to downsize.
The Russia-induced energy crisis of 2022 shows the enduring importance of assets and expertise. Europe is finding it hard to compete against China in the cleantech manufacturing space, and against US companies supercharged by generous tax incentives.
Destroying or driving away some of Europe’s longest-established, largest and most successful companies will not help build competitiveness, however unfashionable their business.
The elusive answer lies in a clearer bargain between the state and companies. European governments should clearly lay out their vision for their hydrocarbon companies in a net-zero world.
The oil companies then need to put their money where their mouth is, deliver on the low-carbon energies that they are best suited to, and leave the rest for other specialists.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Company%20profile
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Day 3, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Just three balls remained in an exhausting day for Sri Lanka’s bowlers when they were afforded some belated cheer. Nuwan Pradeep, unrewarded in 15 overs to that point, let slip a seemingly innocuous delivery down the legside. Babar Azam feathered it behind, and Niroshan Dickwella dived to make a fine catch.
Stat of the day - 2.56 Shan Masood and Sami Aslam are the 16th opening partnership Pakistan have had in Tests in the past five years. That turnover at the top of the order – a new pair every 2.56 Test matches on average – is by far the fastest rate among the leading Test sides. Masood and Aslam put on 114 in their first alliance in Abu Dhabi.
The verdict Even by the normal standards of Test cricket in the UAE, this has been slow going. Pakistan’s run-rate of 2.38 per over is the lowest they have managed in a Test match in this country. With just 14 wickets having fallen in three days so far, it is difficult to see 26 dropping to bring about a result over the next two.
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 178hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 280Nm at 1,350-4,200rpm
Transmission: seven-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: from Dh209,000
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
About Krews
Founder: Ahmed Al Qubaisi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Founded: January 2019
Number of employees: 10
Sector: Technology/Social media
Funding to date: Estimated $300,000 from Hub71 in-kind support
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz E 300 Cabriolet
Price, base / as tested: Dh275,250 / Dh328,465
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 245hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,300rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars
Another way to earn air miles
In addition to the Emirates and Etihad programmes, there is the Air Miles Middle East card, which offers members the ability to choose any airline, has no black-out dates and no restrictions on seat availability. Air Miles is linked up to HSBC credit cards and can also be earned through retail partners such as Spinneys, Sharaf DG and The Toy Store.
An Emirates Dubai-London round-trip ticket costs 180,000 miles on the Air Miles website. But customers earn these ‘miles’ at a much faster rate than airline miles. Adidas offers two air miles per Dh1 spent. Air Miles has partnerships with websites as well, so booking.com and agoda.com offer three miles per Dh1 spent.
“If you use your HSBC credit card when shopping at our partners, you are able to earn Air Miles twice which will mean you can get that flight reward faster and for less spend,” says Paul Lacey, the managing director for Europe, Middle East and India for Aimia, which owns and operates Air Miles Middle East.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
About Proto21
Date started: May 2018
Founder: Pir Arkam
Based: Dubai
Sector: Additive manufacturing (aka, 3D printing)
Staff: 18
Funding: Invested, supported and partnered by Joseph Group
The Outsider
Stephen King, Penguin
The UAE's journey to space
More about Middle East geopolitics
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League quarter-final second leg:
Juventus 1 Ajax 2
Ajax advance 3-2 on aggregate
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Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 480hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 570Nm from 2,300-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 10.4L/100km
Price: from Dh547,600
On sale: now
RESULTS
Bantamweight: Jalal Al Daaja (JOR) beat Hamza Bougamza (MAR)
Catchweight 67kg: Mohamed El Mesbahi (MAR) beat Fouad Mesdari (ALG)
Lightweight: Abdullah Mohammed Ali (UAE) beat Abdelhak Amhidra (MAR)
Catchweight 73kg: Mosatafa Ibrahim Radi (PAL) beat Yazid Chouchane (ALG)
Middleweight: Yousri Belgaroui (TUN) beat Badreddine Diani (MAR)
Catchweight 78KG: Rashed Dawood (UAE) beat Adnan Bushashy (ALG)
Middleweight: Sallah-Eddine Dekhissi (MAR) beat Abdel Enam (EGY)
Catchweight 65kg: Yanis Ghemmouri (ALG) beat Rachid Hazoume (MAR)
Lightweight: Mohammed Yahya (UAE) beat Azouz Anwar (EGY)
Catchweight 79kg: Souhil Tahiri (ALG) beat Omar Hussein (PAL)
Middleweight: Tarek Suleiman (SYR) beat Laid Zerhouni (ALG)
Profile of Tarabut Gateway
Founder: Abdulla Almoayed
Based: UAE
Founded: 2017
Number of employees: 35
Sector: FinTech
Raised: $13 million
Backers: Berlin-based venture capital company Target Global, Kingsway, CE Ventures, Entrée Capital, Zamil Investment Group, Global Ventures, Almoayed Technologies and Mad’a Investment.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
DUBAI WORLD CUP RACE CARD
6.30pm Meydan Classic Trial US$100,000 (Turf) 1,400m
7.05pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m
7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas Group Three $250,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
8.15pm Dubai Sprint Listed Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,200m
8.50pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group Two $450,000 (D) 1,900m
9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,800m
10pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m
The National selections
6.30pm Well Of Wisdom
7.05pm Summrghand
7.40pm Laser Show
8.15pm Angel Alexander
8.50pm Benbatl
9.25pm Art Du Val
10pm: Beyond Reason
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
