When geopolitical crises occurred, major oil price shocks used to inevitably follow, with the sudden price spikes often affecting economies and industries around the world. Surprisingly, that effect has been lessening in recent years.
Instead, market dynamics, supply and demand and economic indicators are playing a more significant role in shaping the price of oil, analysts have said.
This is one of the most geopolitically turbulent periods in decades. Two wars, attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and a production halt by Libya, a major crude producer, have had a surprisingly limited impact on oil markets this year, despite millions of barrels of supply being at stake.
The Ukraine war briefly pushed oil prices to multiyear highs in 2022 as traders feared that western sanctions on Russia’s energy industry would disrupt exports of roughly eight million barrels per day. However, oil futures quickly stabilised as the market adapted by finding alternative buyers and shipping routes.
Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, declined to around $78 per barrel at the end of 2022, despite earlier predictions of reaching $200 per barrel, after peaking near $140 in March that year.
In recent months, the risk of an all-out regional war in the Middle East – a region responsible for about a third of the world's oil production – has dramatically increased, with Israel’s war in Gaza escalating into Lebanon.
Israel and Iran – one of the world’s largest oil producers – have engaged in a series of “tit for tat” strikes since April, raising concerns about vital energy infrastructure being targeted.
Despite the geopolitical upheavals, Brent has fallen by 18 per cent since reaching a six-month high of $91.17 a barrel on April 5. It is down just more than 4 per cent since the beginning of the year.
A month-long disruption to Libyan oil production, caused by a political crisis, halved the country's output but had minimal impact on oil prices, with Brent crude dropping 3 per cent during the shutdown from late August to early October.
Demand uncertainty
Analysts and economists attribute the lack of market reaction to two main factors: weakening Chinese demand and ample spare capacity among Opec+ nations, who are responsible for roughly 40 per cent of the world's crude production.
For world oil consumption to continue to grow at the historical one-plus million bpd per year rate, other countries/regions such as Africa, India, and South-east Asia will have to achieve nearly all these gains.
Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University
“Strong supply levels and weakening demand, particularly from China, have kept prices in check, amid shifting market assessments of the risk to oil infrastructure in the Middle East,” the World Bank said in a report this month.
China, the main engine of global crude demand over the past two decades, is facing an economic slowdown, driven by a property market downturn, weak consumer spending and a decline in manufacturing.
China's crude oil imports in October totalled 44.7 million tonnes, marking a 2 per cent decline from September and a 9 per cent decrease year-over-year, according to Chinese customs data.
The International Energy Agency expects China's oil demand growth to slow to 140,000 barrels per day this year, a tenth of last year's 1.4 million bpd increase, contributing to a 1 million bpd global supply surplus in 2025.
The agency has said that China's petrol demand will peak this year, followed by diesel demand peaking next year, as electric vehicle adoption grows at a rapid pace in the world’s second-largest economy.
In the first nine months of 2024, new energy vehicles (NEVs), comprising electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles, represented nearly 39 per cent of new car sales, up from 31.6 per cent in the entire previous year, the South China Morning Post reported.
“The slowdown ahead has implications for the oil market and oil prices,” academics from the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University said in a report last week.
“For world oil consumption to continue to grow at the historical one-plus million bpd per year rate, other countries/regions such as Africa, India, and South-east Asia will have to achieve nearly all these gains,” they said.
Spare capacity
The Opec+ alliance, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, has about 6 million bpd of spare capacity to offset any potential supply disruptions, preventing oil prices from surging.
The downside risks to oil prices have built this year as demand growth has disappointed, non-Opec+ supply has gained, and the alliance has relied on Saudi Arabia-led “voluntary cuts” to keep the market in-check, Ehsan Khoman, MUFG's head of commodities, ESG and emerging markets research, said in a research note.
“Beyond the tepid cyclical nature of the market, the build-up in substantial Opec+ spare capacity is reinforcing the ceiling for sustainable price gains,” Mr Khoman said.
“This creates conditions where prices are likely to soften into next year, particularly with Opec+ looking set to lift production in a bid to regain market share.”
The group, which currently has supply curbs of 5.86 million bpd in place, plans to unwind voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million bpd starting from January next year.
Opec's spare oil production capacity will increase to 8 million bpd by 2030 on planned capacity additions by member countries, according to the IEA.
Major oil price shocks
Arab oil embargo
During the 1973 Arab Israeli War, Opec’s Arab members imposed an oil embargo on the US and other nations that supported Israel in response to American resupply of the Israeli military. The resulting production cuts nearly quadrupled the price of oil from $2.90 a barrel before the embargo to $11.65 a barrel in January 1974.
Iran-Iraq war
The 1979 Iranian Revolution and the 1980 Iran-Iraq War significantly increased global oil prices, rising from $14.95 in 1978 to $37.42 per barrel two years later.
Gulf war
In August 1990, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait caused a sharp increase in oil prices, pushing them from around $65 to over $90 per barrel. However, after a US-led coalition's victory in early 1991, oil prices dropped to around $44 per barrel.
Asian financial crisis
The crisis, which began in Thailand in 1997 and spread across the region, led to severe economic downturns in affected countries. These countries experienced high unemployment rates, poverty, and social unrest. Oil prices plummeted from an average of $17 per barrel in late 1997 to a low of more than $10 per barrel.
9/11 attacks
Following the terrorist attack on US business and military centres on September 11, 2001, Brent prices rose by 5 per cent. However, within two weeks, prices fell by about 25 per cent due to concerns over declining oil demand.
Great recession
The 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent Great Recession severely impacted the oil and gas industry, leading to a sharp drop in oil and gas prices and a credit crunch. Oil prices fell from a high of $133.88 in June 2008 to a low of $39.09 in February 2009.
Oil glut
Oil prices plummeted by more than 70 per cent between mid-2014 and early 2016, largely driven by increased US shale oil production and improved efficiency within the sector. This resulted in the US becoming a major player in the global oil market.
Covid-19 pandemic
The Covid-19 pandemic caused oil prices to plummet due to decreased global demand from lockdowns and economic restrictions, leading to a surplus of oil in the market. In April 2020, West Texas Intermediate futures, the US crude benchmark, fell below zero for the first time since trading began in 1983.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
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More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Silent Hill f
Publisher: Konami
Platforms: PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PC
Rating: 4.5/5
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
Company%20profile
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Trump v Khan
2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US
2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks
2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit
2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”
2022: Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency
July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
The Bloomberg Billionaire Index in full
1 Jeff Bezos $140 billion
2 Bill Gates $98.3 billion
3 Bernard Arnault $83.1 billion
4 Warren Buffett $83 billion
5 Amancio Ortega $67.9 billion
6 Mark Zuckerberg $67.3 billion
7 Larry Page $56.8 billion
8 Larry Ellison $56.1 billion
9 Sergey Brin $55.2 billion
10 Carlos Slim $55.2 billion
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Engine: 80 kWh four-wheel-drive
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 402bhp
Torque: 760Nm
Price: From Dh280,000
List of alleged parties
May 15 2020: PM and Carrie attend 'work meeting' with at
least 17 staff members
May 20 2020: PM and Carrie attend 'bring your own booze'
party
Nov 27 2020: PM gives speech at leaving do for his staff
Dec 10 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary
Gavin Williamson
Dec 13 2020: PM and Carrie throw a flat party
Dec 14 2020: London mayor candidate Shaun Bailey holds staff party at Conservative
Party headquarters
Dec 15 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz
Dec 18 2020: Downing Street Christmas party
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Cry Macho
Director: Clint Eastwood
Stars: Clint Eastwood, Dwight Yoakam
Rating:**
'O'
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
3%20Body%20Problem
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
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Manchester United v Club America
When: Thursday, 9pm Arizona time (Friday UAE, 8am)
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
ARM%20IPO%20DETAILS
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The biog
Age: 30
Position: Senior lab superintendent at Emirates Global Aluminium
Education: Bachelor of science in chemical engineering, post graduate degree in light metal reduction technology
Favourite part of job: The challenge, because it is challenging
Favourite quote: “Be the change you wish to see in the world,” Gandi
BABYLON
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
