Hedge funds are keeping their cool in the most tumultuous end of the year for oil since the 2008 financial crisis, betting on better days ahead.
They boosted wagers on rising Brent prices for a third straight week amid expectations that Opec and allies will follow through on a deal to reduce output. The vote of confidence comes against a backdrop of turmoil in financial markets that saw one measure of oil-price volatility jump the most on record in November and head for its highest year-end level in a decade.
“There is a little more optimism and neutrality coming into markets and we’re getting some positive signs,” said Ashley Petersen, an oil analyst at Stratas Advisors in New York. “It’s not as if demand is tanking tomorrow and supply is going to triple. We’re seeing a little more rationale enter markets, a little more of a wait-and-see mode.”
Although the global crude benchmark has declined about 15 per cent since Opec and its allies came together and announced an agreement to reduce output on December 7 - extending its plunge since early October to 40 per cent - producers have signaled dedication to the deal.
Opec and its allies aim to publish a statement in January on the implementation of the agreement to cut production, according to Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak. He also said the market may see the impact of the cuts in January or February, and if necessary, the group can convene before its scheduled meeting in April. At the same time, a decline in Iranian imports to Japan adds another positive sign.
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Read more:
Oil Watchers See $70 a Barrel in 2019 as Recession Fears Fade
Quick take: Why is Opec important?
Oil price volatility is spurring short-term investments, mainly in the US
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“Opec has done a pretty good job indicating that they are going to hold compliance,” said Brian Kessens, who helps manage $16 billion in energy assets at Tortoise in Kansas.
Hedge funds’ net-long position -- the difference between bets on higher Brent prices and wagers on a drop -- rose 6.7 per cent to 162,249 contracts for the six days ended December 24, ICE Futures Europe data show. Longs rose, while shorts declined to the lowest level since late November. The report was for a period shorter than a week because of the Christmas holiday.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast Brent to average $70 a barrel in 2019 as the market tightens, Opec’s supply cuts take effect and unintended losses in Venezuela and Iran increase.
So far, the apparent confidence from hedge funds and analysts hasn’t yet translated into a calmer market. After surging a record 86 per cent in November, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Oil Volatility Index ended Friday at 53.11. The last time it finished the year above 51 was 2008.
In the US, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s commitments of traders report with a tally of wagers on West Texas Intermediate and other assets won’t be published during the government shutdown, according to a December 22 notice.
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Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
French Touch
Carla Bruni
(Verve)
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
City's slump
L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1
The specs: 2019 Mini Cooper
Price, base: Dh141,740 (three-door) / Dh165,900 (five-door)
Engine: 1.5-litre four-cylinder (Cooper) / 2.0-litre four-cylinder (Cooper S)
Power: 136hp @ 4,500rpm (Cooper) / 192hp @ 5,000rpm (Cooper S)
Torque: 220Nm @ 1,480rpm (Cooper) / 280Nm @ 1,350rpm (Cooper S)
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 4.8L to 5.4L / 100km
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
Results
6.30pm: Dubai Millennium Stakes Group Three US$200,000 (Turf) 2,000m; Winner: Ghaiyyath, William Buick (jockey), Charlie Appleby (trainer).
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Know your camel milk:
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Use it: In your morning coffee, to add flavour to homemade ice cream and milk-heavy desserts, smoothies, spiced camel-milk hot chocolate.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
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