An oil well near Tioga, North Dakota. Higher oil prices may encourage US shale producers to reactivate wells. Karen Bleier / AFP
An oil well near Tioga, North Dakota. Higher oil prices may encourage US shale producers to reactivate wells. Karen Bleier / AFP

Oil resurrection sets stage for another Opec-shale clash in 2018



Oil’s revival from the biggest crash in a generation persisted, with prices set for a second annual gain after weathering everything from hurricanes and Middle East conflict to the tussle between OPEC and US shale.

Benchmark futures are up more than 11 per cent in 2017, after going into a bull market in September. While gains were driven by glut-shrinking output cuts by Opec and its allies including Russia, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as well as pipeline disruptions from the North Sea to Canada and Libya have also helped. In 2018, investors will watch if US output undermines Opec’s curbs.

Speculation is rising that American drillers will put more rigs to work as oil strengthens, with shale growth driving forecasts of record US supply in 2018. That could act counter to plans by producers including Saudi Arabia, who have pledged to extend production curbs through end-2018 to wipe out a global glut. After Hurricane Harvey shut Gulf Coast refiners at the end of August and hurt prices, violence in Iraq and a pipe crack in the UK have helped buoy crude.

“The key driver for the oil market this year has been that the Opec and Russian production cuts were introduced, complied with and extended,” said Ric Spooner, a Sydney-based analyst at CMC Markets. “This has allowed the market to reduce inventory despite production increases in the US, Libya and Nigeria.”

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery was at US$60.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 38 US cents, at 7:31 a.m. in London. Total volume traded was about 50 per cent above the 100-day average. Front-month prices are 12 per cent higher this year, after rising 45 per cent -- the most since 2009 -- in 2016.

Brent for March settlement added 42 US cents to US$66.58 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The February contract expired Thursday, after rising 28 US cents to US$66.72. The benchmark for more than half the world’s oil has gained 17 per cent this year, after climbing 52 per cent in 2016. It was at a premium of US$6.34 to March WTI.

Oil's trading at the highest level since mid-2015 after WTI breached above US$60 a barrel for the first time in more than two years. The benchmark traded at an average price of about US$51 this year. Nationwide stockpiles fell 4.6 million barrels last week to the lowest level since October 2015, according to the Energy Information Administration Thursday. That beat the 3.75 million average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

“The tug-of-war between Opec and the US will continue to pressure oil from trading above US$60 a barrel in 2018,” said Kim Kwangrae, a Seoul-based commodities analyst at Samsung Futures. “Like we’ve seen this year, geopolitical risks will be the key factor going forward for oil to breach US$60.”

Following an explosion on Tuesday, Waha Oil Company is working to repair the pipeline that carries crude to Libya’s Es Sider port, the North African nation’s biggest export terminal, while a major UK North Sea pipeline is nearing a return to full service after an outage this month.

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

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Sustainable Development Goals

1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere

2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture

3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages

4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all

5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all

7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all

9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation

10. Reduce inequality  within and among countries

11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects

14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development

15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss

16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels

17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development

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Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani

Rating: 4/5

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A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
  • 2018: Formal work begins
  • November 2021: First 17 volumes launched 
  • November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
  • October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
  • November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
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Rating: 2.5/5

Business Insights
  • Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
  • The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
  • US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
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Five ways to get fit like Craig David (we tried for seven but ran out of time)

Start the week as you mean to go on. So get your training on strong on a Monday.

Train hard, but don’t take it all so seriously that it gets to the point where you’re not having fun and enjoying your friends and your family and going out for nice meals and doing that stuff.

Think about what you’re training or eating a certain way for — don’t, for example, get a six-pack to impress somebody else or lose weight to conform to society’s norms. It’s all nonsense.

Get your priorities right.

And last but not least, you should always, always chill on Sundays.

Business Insights
  • As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses. 
  • SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income. 
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One 45-minute class per week in Standard Arabic is not sufficient

The goal should be for grade 1 and 2 students to become fluent readers

Subjects like technology, social studies, science can be taught in later grades

Grade 1 curricula should include oral instruction in Standard Arabic

First graders must regularly practice individual letters and combinations

Time should be slotted in class to read longer passages in early grades

Improve the appearance of textbooks

Revision of curriculum should be undertaken as per research findings

Conjugations of most common verb forms should be taught

Systematic learning of Standard Arabic grammar

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Man of the Match Olosunde  (Rotherham)

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Three ways to limit your social media use

Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.

1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.

2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information. 

3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.