Representatives of Opec and non-Opec countries in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Opec and Russia may well continue production cuts into 2019. Abdulrahman Abdullah/Bloomberg
Representatives of Opec and non-Opec countries in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Opec and Russia may well continue production cuts into 2019. Abdulrahman Abdullah/Bloomberg

Opec’s grand bargain on output is at risk of becoming a victim of its own success



“In 1996, I thought $20 a barrel was reasonable; in 2006 I thought $27 a barrel was reasonable and now it is around $100 a barrel. I told them again it is reasonable," said former Saudi oil minister Ali Al Naimi in 2013.

The plunge the following year took prices all the way back to $27 by February 2016. Now, with Brent crude at $74 on Thursday, the leading oil exporters are again braking their oil output too hard.

US President Donald Trump responded to Opec’s latest monitoring committee meeting in his usual style: “Looks like OPEC is at it again…Oil prices are artificially Very High!” he tweeted. Stories circulating beforehand suggested Saudi Arabia might be seeking prices of $80 or even $100 per barrel.

There are three problems with the Opec/non-Opec coalition’s current approach. Compliance is too high, and is not adjusted for some members’ inability to maintain production. The group’s metrics for assessing their deal, and hence their future guidance on policy, have become blurred. And current prices threaten demand growth, and hence risk a renewed slump.

The committee reported that Opec and its non-Opec partners had achieved record compliance to their planned cuts of 149 per cent – ie, cutting 50 per cent more than they had planned. But this is not a sign of success. The group should be aiming to hit, not exceed, its target. The over-tightening is mainly due to the continuing collapse in Venezuela, whose output is down from 1.9 million barrels per day in 2017 to less than 1.5 million bpd in March. Angola has lost another 150,000 bpd over its target because of ageing fields. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia is also producing less than its target – when it should be slightly over-producing to compensate for others’ losses.

Having declared that they have pretty much achieved their goal of bringing down Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development oil stocks to the five-year average level, Opec has now begun casting around for a different metric to justify continuing cuts. This is not price: the Saudi Arabia and UAE energy ministers, Khalid Al Falih and Suhail Al Mazrouei, have resolutely refused to talk in terms of a specific price. Conversely, Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh and Russia’s Alexander Novak, respectively, named $60 and $64 per barrel as “acceptable”.

Instead, Mr Al Falih has echoed the oil consumers’ organisation, the International Energy Agency (IEA), in pointing to the danger of a lack of investment. But this is not a guide to Opec policy: what is the right level of investment? And with investments taking several years to come to fruition, this would not be helpful for making month-by-month production decisions.

_______________

Read more:

Russia eyes an exit, while Saudi Arabia holds oil output curbs together

Despite Trump's concern an oil-price fall would carry risks

_______________

The focus on a lack of investment also contradicts Opec’s actual policy. If there is a danger of shortages, the major producers should be investing heavily in extra production capacity, to capture market share at attractive prices. Instead, the theme of underinvestment reads more like a pre-emptive defence against tweeters such as Mr Trump.

Adjusted for inflation, the oil price has been above $74 per barrel for 13 out of the 47 years of the post-1970 era of Opec power. Prices at today’s level are not unheard of, but they are unusual. The three main forecasting agencies - the IEA, the US' Energy Information Administration, and Opec itself – all see production growth outside Opec outstripping demand this year. After restoring its market share to a high in the third quarter of last year, Opec has let it slip again this year – in an environment of strong prices and demand in which it should be gaining market share.

Mr Al Naimi was later to write that, however fair $100 per barrel had been, it had been a mistake. “It was very high,” he said in his 2016 autobiography. “That price unleashed a wave of investment around the world into what had previously been uneconomic oilfields.”

He is right, but more serious for the future is the loss of demand. Under the stress of high prices, world oil demand grew less than 1.1 million barrels per year on average during 2011-14. This improved to around 1.7 million barrels per day of annual gains in 2015-17. The hoped-for $80 per barrel price would represent a near-doubling from the middle of last year, and inevitably have a negative effect on consumption.

For the longer-term, an implicit price floor of $80 or $100 is a guarantee for high-cost oilfields and electric vehicles. Once battery cars enter the mainstream, consumer familiarity and economies of scale in manufacturing and recharging will impel them much faster than early adopters and government subsidies do today - a potentially devastating threat to all oil exporters.

From here, there are two likely paths. Either weakening demand, a slowing economy and increased non-Opec production will erode prices again, requiring the group to extend its cuts into next year. Or, prices could spike as the (N)Opec coalition keeps too much oil off the market. This would worsen by the imposition of oil-related sanctions on one or more of Iran, Venezuela and Russia. This would be followed by a steeper and longer price hole. It may already be too late, but for now the best the oil exporters can do is to ease off the brakes.

Robin Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis

MATCH INFO

Norwich City 1 (Cantwell 75') Manchester United 2 (Aghalo 51' 118') After extra time.

Man of the match Harry Maguire (Manchester United)

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Rating: 4/5
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The bio

Favourite vegetable: Broccoli

Favourite food: Seafood

Favourite thing to cook: Duck l'orange

Favourite book: Give and Take by Adam Grant, one of his professors at University of Pennsylvania

Favourite place to travel: Home in Kuwait.

Favourite place in the UAE: Al Qudra lakes

The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.4-litre%2C%20twin-turbo%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eeight-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E617hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E750Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh630%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE APPRENTICE

Director: Ali Abbasi

Starring: Sebastian Stan, Maria Bakalova, Jeremy Strong

Rating: 3/5

Results

5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m; Winner: Gurm, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)

5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Al Nafece, Al Muatasm Al Balushi, Mohammed Ramadan

6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Adrie de Vries, Ibrahim Aseel

6.30pm: Arabian Triple Crown – Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Ottoman, Adrie de Vries, Abdallah Al Hammadi

7pm: Liwa Oasis – Group 2 (PA) 300,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Hakeemat Muscat, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami

7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Ganbaru, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
The%20Kitchen
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EDaniel%20Kaluuya%2C%20Kibwe%20Tavares%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EKane%20Robinson%2C%20Jedaiah%20Bannerman%2C%20Hope%20Ikpoku%20Jnr%2C%20Fiona%20Marr%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
Tips on buying property during a pandemic

Islay Robinson, group chief executive of mortgage broker Enness Global, offers his advice on buying property in today's market.

While many have been quick to call a market collapse, this simply isn’t what we’re seeing on the ground. Many pockets of the global property market, including London and the UAE, continue to be compelling locations to invest in real estate.

While an air of uncertainty remains, the outlook is far better than anyone could have predicted. However, it is still important to consider the wider threat posed by Covid-19 when buying bricks and mortar. 

Anything with outside space, gardens and private entrances is a must and these property features will see your investment keep its value should the pandemic drag on. In contrast, flats and particularly high-rise developments are falling in popularity and investors should avoid them at all costs.

Attractive investment property can be hard to find amid strong demand and heightened buyer activity. When you do find one, be prepared to move hard and fast to secure it. If you have your finances in order, this shouldn’t be an issue.

Lenders continue to lend and rates remain at an all-time low, so utilise this. There is no point in tying up cash when you can keep this liquidity to maximise other opportunities. 

Keep your head and, as always when investing, take the long-term view. External factors such as coronavirus or Brexit will present challenges in the short-term, but the long-term outlook remains strong. 

Finally, keep an eye on your currency. Whenever currency fluctuations favour foreign buyers, you can bet that demand will increase, as they act to secure what is essentially a discounted property.

Match info

Huddersfield Town 0

Chelsea 3
Kante (34'), Jorginho (45' pen), Pedro (80')

What%20is%20Dungeons%20%26%20Dragons%3F%20
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Ticket prices
  • Golden circle - Dh995
  • Floor Standing - Dh495
  • Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
  • Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
  • Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
  • Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
  • Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
  • Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
MATCH INFO

Quarter-finals

Saturday (all times UAE)

England v Australia, 11.15am 
New Zealand v Ireland, 2.15pm

Sunday

Wales v France, 11.15am
Japan v South Africa, 2.15pm

Business Insights
  • Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
  • The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
  • US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
DUNE%3A%20PART%20TWO
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
UAE SQUAD FOR ASIAN JIU-JITSU CHAMPIONSHIP

Men’s squad: Faisal Al Ketbi, Omar Al Fadhli, Zayed Al Kathiri, Thiab Al Nuaimi, Khaled Al Shehhi, Mohamed Ali Al Suwaidi, Farraj Khaled Al Awlaqi, Muhammad Al Ameri, Mahdi Al Awlaqi, Saeed Al Qubaisi, Abdullah Al Qubaisi and Hazaa Farhan

Women's squad: Hamda Al Shekheili, Shouq Al Dhanhani, Balqis Abdullah, Sharifa Al Namani, Asma Al Hosani, Maitha Sultan, Bashayer Al Matrooshi, Maha Al Hanaei, Shamma Al Kalbani, Haya Al Jahuri, Mahra Mahfouz, Marwa Al Hosani, Tasneem Al Jahoori and Maryam Al Amri

Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage

Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid 

Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani

Rating: 4/5

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Business Insights
  • As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses. 
  • SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income. 
  • Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo

The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
​​​​​​​Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Airev
Started: September 2023
Founder: Muhammad Khalid
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: Generative AI
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
 
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MATCH INFO

Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium (Malacca, Malayisa)
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD

* Second leg in Australia scheduled for October 10

MATCH INFO

Burnley 0

Man City 3

Raheem Sterling 35', 49'

Ferran Torres 65'

 

 

Crops that could be introduced to the UAE

1: Quinoa 

2. Bathua 

3. Amaranth 

4. Pearl and finger millet 

5. Sorghum

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HyveGeo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abdulaziz%20bin%20Redha%2C%20Dr%20Samsurin%20Welch%2C%20Eva%20Morales%20and%20Dr%20Harjit%20Singh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECambridge%20and%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESustainability%20%26amp%3B%20Environment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24200%2C000%20plus%20undisclosed%20grant%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVenture%20capital%20and%20government%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
  • 2018: Formal work begins
  • November 2021: First 17 volumes launched 
  • November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
  • October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
  • November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
Teachers' pay - what you need to know

Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:

- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools

- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say

- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance

- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs

- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills

- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month

- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

W.
Wael Kfoury
(Rotana)

The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Power: 268bhp / 536bhp
Torque: 343Nm / 686Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
On sale: Later this year
The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
'The Batman'

Stars:Robert Pattinson

Director:Matt Reeves

Rating: 5/5

Pupils in Abu Dhabi are learning the importance of being active, eating well and leading a healthy lifestyle now and throughout adulthood, thanks to a newly launched programme 'Healthy Lifestyle'.

As part of the Healthy Lifestyle programme, specially trained coaches from City Football Schools, along with Healthpoint physicians have visited schools throughout Abu Dhabi to give fun and interactive lessons on working out regularly, making the right food choices, getting enough sleep and staying hydrated, just like their favourite footballers.

Organised by Manchester City FC and Healthpoint, Manchester City FC’s regional healthcare partner and part of Mubadala’s healthcare network, the ‘Healthy Lifestyle’ programme will visit 15 schools, meeting around 1,000 youngsters over the next five months.

Designed to give pupils all the information they need to improve their diet and fitness habits at home, at school and as they grow up, coaches from City Football Schools will work alongside teachers to lead the youngsters through a series of fun, creative and educational classes as well as activities, including playing football and other games.

Dr Mai Ahmed Al Jaber, head of public health at Healthpoint, said: “The programme has different aspects - diet, exercise, sleep and mental well-being. By having a focus on each of those and delivering information in a way that children can absorb easily it can help to address childhood obesity."

A Prayer Before Dawn

Director: Jean-Stephane Sauvaire

Starring: Joe Cole, Somluck Kamsing, Panya Yimmumphai

Three stars

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