Oil prices are expected to rally next year on the back of an anticipated supply deficit in the market from ongoing production curbs. Karim Sahib / AFP
Oil prices are expected to rally next year on the back of an anticipated supply deficit in the market from ongoing production curbs. Karim Sahib / AFP

Supply gap to push Brent to US$75/b in 2019, BMI says



A sustained deficit in the oil market this year from continued production cuts will push the price of Brent to $75 a barrel in 2019, and further up to $78 a barrel in 2020 on a year-on-year average basis, according to BMI Research.

"Strengthening prices will elicit a more forceful reaction from US shale and new Brazilian supply and may also, in our view, bring Saudi spare capacity," BMI said in its latest report. The new growth alone will not plug the looming supply gap and the market is set to enter a sustained deficit from 2018, placing upside pressure on prices, it added.

Opec, led by Saudi Arabia and producers outside the organisation, in particular Russia, entered into a pact to restrict their production levels by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) from the beginning of 2017 to draw down global inventory levels, blamed for the slump in the oil market that saw prices plunge to $29 a barrel in the beginning of 2016 from $100 levels two years prior.

The output curbs extended now until the end of 2018 pushed the price of Brent to a three-year high of $70.53 a barrel last month,

__________

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BMI, a Fitch subsidiary, sees prices remaining at $65 for the rest of year on the back of high compliance among Opec members and a bullish outlook on US shale, which is expected to act as headwind on any increases in price.

While BMI's estimates are higher than the Bloomberg consensus of $62 a barrel for Brent, it is conservative when compared with Goldman Sachs' outlook, which forecasts a high of $80 a barrel in six months for the same benchmark. The investment bank anticipates Brent to rise to $75 a barrel in three months and drop down to the same level after its mid-year peak of $80 a barrel, on the back of rising US shale production.

BMI noted that Brent's bullish start to the year had already begun losing steam. Prices averaged $67.77 a barrel at 4pm Dubai time. Seasonal crude inventory build up towards the end of the first quarter of the year could also add to the downside, it added. While Opec has maintained fidelity to the output pact, over-complying in some cases, this year could see some slippages, according to the report, especially among producers who can ramp up spare capacity with price increases. The neutral zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait remains the only spare capacity concession in the region, while Iraq, the region's second-largest producer, said it is targeting output of five million bpd this year.

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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
  • 2018: Formal work begins
  • November 2021: First 17 volumes launched 
  • November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
  • October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
  • November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
Company%20Profile
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Why it pays to compare

A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.

Route 1: bank transfer

The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.

Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount

Total received: €4,670.30 

Route 2: online platform

The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.

Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction

Total received: €4,756

The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.

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THE%20SPECS
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The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol

Power: 154bhp

Torque: 250Nm

Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option 

Price: From Dh79,600

On sale: Now

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage

Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid 

Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani

Rating: 4/5

The National Archives, Abu Dhabi

Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.

Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en

Avengers: Endgame

Directors: Anthony Russo, Joe Russo

Starring: Robert Downey Jr, Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, Chris Hemsworth, Josh Brolin

4/5 stars 

Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Rating: 4/5
Business Insights
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The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale

Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni

Director: Amith Krishnan

Rating: 3.5/5

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ticket prices
  • Golden circle - Dh995
  • Floor Standing - Dh495
  • Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
  • Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
  • Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
  • Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
  • Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
  • Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
Business Insights
  • As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses. 
  • SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income. 
  • Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
City's slump

L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1

The specs: 2019 Subaru Forester

Price, base: Dh105,900 (Premium); Dh115,900 (Sport)

Engine: 2.5-litre four-cylinder

Transmission: Continuously variable transmission

Power: 182hp @ 5,800rpm

Torque: 239Nm @ 4,400rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 8.1L / 100km (estimated)

The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
Company%20Profile
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Janet Yellen's Firsts

  • In 2014, she became the first woman to lead the US Federal Reserve 
  • In 1999, she became the first female chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers 

THE SPECS

Engine: Four-cylinder 2.5-litre

Transmission: Seven-speed auto

Power: 165hp

Torque: 241Nm

Price: Dh99,900 to Dh134,000

On sale: now