Trade wars are contests in masochism.
The US Trump administration struck the opening blows but China has already identified energy as a key pain point. Oil, gas, coal and solar power are all set to take some bruises.
In January, the US put a levy of 30 per cent on all imported solar cells, and at the end of May, it imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium from the EU, Mexico and Canada. A compromise was announced in May over US demands that China reduce its $375 billion annual trade surplus with the US by $200bon. China’s growing economy was in any case set to take more energy and agricultural produce from America.
Yet after talks predictably broke down, on June 15 the White House unveiled tariffs on $50bn of Chinese imports, including 25 per cent on solar panels. Beijing has announced it will respond with tariffs on many American goods, including 25 per cent on oil, propane, petrochemicals and coal, on July 6. Natural gas in its liquefied form, LNG, is not yet on the list.
The Middle Kingdom has very swiftly become the largest importer of US petroleum, a forecast 450 000 barrels per day in July, worth some $12bn over the course of a year, as producers seek outlets from a continent flooded with crude. As it converts polluting coal-burning heaters and industry, it is buying more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, with a potential $20bn to $30bn of yearly sales. Sales of ethanol, made from corn and used as a petrol substitute or additive, could add another $5bn to $7bn. And its coal purchases from the US doubled last year to almost 6 million tonnes, worth some $500 million.
The ceiling on further imports is not set by Chinese trade policy or even its economy, but simply the limitations on US production and export capacity, with pipelines from the inland Permian Basin of West Texas already full to capacity, and new LNG export plants yet to be completed.
The shale revolution has had a positive impact on the American economy, but not changed its overall trade position. The US’ petroleum trade deficit is now barely a tenth of its peak level of 2008, but the deficit on all trade is unchanged. Dollars that were used to buy foreign oil are now used for other products, just as economic theory would predict. And focusing on a bilateral deficit, even with a country as important as China, is yet more nonsensical.
The modern Republican party appears to welcome Soviet-style policies of managed trade, and is more concerned about selling coal and soya beans than building a high-tech economy. Such a mercantilist agenda of “energy dominance” is an intolerable threat to powerful independent nations.
_______________
Read more:
Opec's Vienna meet could prove bullish for oil markets, say analysts
Opec's new game as rivalries surface over oil production
_______________
The US, which had quotas on imports of oil from 1959 until 1973 for spurious national security reasons, blocked China National Offshore Oil Company’s attempt to buy independent oil firm Unocal in 2005, and banned exports of its own oil for 40 years until 2016, has a poor record on free trade in energy. A serial imposer of energy-related sanctions on countries such as the Soviet Union, Iran, Iraq, Libya and Sudan, it has recently targeted three leading oil and gas exporters, Russia, Venezuela and (again) Iran.
As their exports are hampered, the US might have expected to take markets for its LNG in Europe and oil in Asia. China, Japan and South Korea have always been concerned about over-reliance on the Middle East; Europe, over Russian gas.
Chinese tariffs will make US energy imports uncompetitive. To some extent, American oil and LNG exports will simply be redistributed, with consumers paying the cost. Iran, offering discounts to beat sanctions, will be a key alternative for China. But trade barriers in such a dominant consumer will depress prices for US crude overall, inhibiting its breakneck growth.
The world LNG market is becoming more flexible, but newly-conceived American LNG terminals, many of them betting on China, will not get financing without backing from customers. If China does extend tariffs to LNG, that will retard its take-up in China in general; it will use less gas, and what it does consume will come more from domestic production and pipelines from Russia and Central Asia.
Retaliation to anti-trade measures, a sad economic necessity, is also intelligent politics. Most of the leading US oil-producing states – Texas, North Dakota, Alaska, Oklahoma, Wyoming – trend Republican, as do the leading coal-mining states, Wyoming (again), West Virginia and Kentucky. Last week, state-owned China Energy put on hold plans to invest $84bn in West Virginia, one of the poorest states. An Alaskan delegation looking to Chinese firms to invest in LNG came back from Shanghai empty-handed last month.
The impact of a trade war goes far beyond the sectors initially targeted. A 10 per cent drop in China’s exports would reduce its GDP by 0.3 per cent, but Asia’s by 1.1 per cent. Beyond short-term disruptions and loss of access to markets, the bigger danger to the energy sector comes from economic damage.
Energy-exporting countries can enjoy a short-term gain as US oil and gas companies’ charge is stalled, but are threatened by a slump in demand. The rest of the world needs to deepen its own economic and energy integration, and not allow proportionate defences to swell into generalised trade wars. And with free market advocates unheeded, it seems increasingly likely that only real economic pain can open the eyes of the new American protectionists.
Robin M Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Manikarnika: The Queen of Jhansi
Director: Kangana Ranaut, Krish Jagarlamudi
Producer: Zee Studios, Kamal Jain
Cast: Kangana Ranaut, Ankita Lokhande, Danny Denzongpa, Atul Kulkarni
Rating: 2.5/5
HAEMOGLOBIN DISORDERS EXPLAINED
Thalassaemia is part of a family of genetic conditions affecting the blood known as haemoglobin disorders.
Haemoglobin is a substance in the red blood cells that carries oxygen and a lack of it triggers anemia, leaving patients very weak, short of breath and pale.
The most severe type of the condition is typically inherited when both parents are carriers. Those patients often require regular blood transfusions - about 450 of the UAE's 2,000 thalassaemia patients - though frequent transfusions can lead to too much iron in the body and heart and liver problems.
The condition mainly affects people of Mediterranean, South Asian, South-East Asian and Middle Eastern origin. Saudi Arabia recorded 45,892 cases of carriers between 2004 and 2014.
A World Health Organisation study estimated that globally there are at least 950,000 'new carrier couples' every year and annually there are 1.33 million at-risk pregnancies.
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About Okadoc
Date started: Okadoc, 2018
Founder/CEO: Fodhil Benturquia
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Healthcare
Size: (employees/revenue) 40 staff; undisclosed revenues recording “double-digit” monthly growth
Funding stage: Series B fundraising round to conclude in February
Investors: Undisclosed
Oscars in the UAE
The 90th Academy Awards will be aired in the UAE from 3.30am on Monday, March 5 on OSN, with the ceremony starting at 5am
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
If you go...
Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.
Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50
Match info
Manchester United 1
Fred (18')
Wolves 1
Moutinho (53')
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE WARRIORS RESULTS
Featherweight
Azouz Anwar (EGY) beat Marcelo Pontes (BRA)
TKO round 2
Catchweight 90kg
Moustafa Rashid Nada (KSA) beat Imad Al Howayeck (LEB)
Split points decision
Welterweight
Gimbat Ismailov (RUS) beat Mohammed Al Khatib (JOR)
TKO round 1
Flyweight (women)
Lucie Bertaud (FRA) beat Kelig Pinson (BEL)
Unanimous points decision
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) beat Regelo Enumerables Jr (PHI)
TKO round 1
Catchweight 100kg
Marc Vleiger (NED) beat Mohamed Ali (EGY)
Rear neck choke round 1
Featherweight
James Bishop (NZ) beat Mark Valerio (PHI)
TKO round 2
Welterweight
Abdelghani Saber (EGY) beat Gerson Carvalho (BRA)
TKO round 1
Middleweight
Bakhtiyar Abbasov (AZE) beat Igor Litoshik (BLR)
Unanimous points decision
Bantamweight
Fabio Mello (BRA) beat Mark Alcoba (PHI)
Unanimous points decision
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Magomedsultan Magomedsultanov (RUS)
TKO round 1
Bantamweight
Trent Girdham (AUS) beat Jayson Margallo (PHI)
TKO round 3
Lightweight
Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) beat Roman Golovinov (UKR)
TKO round 1
Middleweight
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) beat Steve Kennedy (AUS)
Submission round 2
Lightweight
Dan Moret (USA) v Anton Kuivanen (FIN)
TKO round 2
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
MORE ON IRAN'S PROXY WARS
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
Dubai World Cup factbox
Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)
Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)
Most wins by an owner: Godolphin(9)
Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)
Building boom turning to bust as Turkey's economy slows
Deep in a provincial region of northwestern Turkey, it looks like a mirage - hundreds of luxury houses built in neat rows, their pointed towers somewhere between French chateau and Disney castle.
Meant to provide luxurious accommodations for foreign buyers, the houses are however standing empty in what is anything but a fairytale for their investors.
The ambitious development has been hit by regional turmoil as well as the slump in the Turkish construction industry - a key sector - as the country's economy heads towards what could be a hard landing in an intensifying downturn.
After a long period of solid growth, Turkey's economy contracted 1.1 per cent in the third quarter, and many economists expect it will enter into recession this year.
The country has been hit by high inflation and a currency crisis in August. The lira lost 28 per cent of its value against the dollar in 2018 and markets are still unconvinced by the readiness of the government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tackle underlying economic issues.
The villas close to the town centre of Mudurnu in the Bolu region are intended to resemble European architecture and are part of the Sarot Group's Burj Al Babas project.
But the development of 732 villas and a shopping centre - which began in 2014 - is now in limbo as Sarot Group has sought bankruptcy protection.
It is one of hundreds of Turkish companies that have done so as they seek cover from creditors and to restructure their debts.
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Match info
Athletic Bilbao 0
Real Madrid 1 (Ramos 73' pen)
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
Company%20Profile
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Disability on screen
Empire — neuromuscular disease myasthenia gravis; bipolar disorder; post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)
Rosewood and Transparent — heart issues
24: Legacy — PTSD;
Superstore and NCIS: New Orleans — wheelchair-bound
Taken and This Is Us — cancer
Trial & Error — cognitive disorder prosopagnosia (facial blindness and dyslexia)
Grey’s Anatomy — prosthetic leg
Scorpion — obsessive compulsive disorder and anxiety
Switched at Birth — deafness
One Mississippi, Wentworth and Transparent — double mastectomy
Dragons — double amputee
FINAL SCORES
Fujairah 130 for 8 in 20 overs
(Sandy Sandeep 29, Hamdan Tahir 26 no, Umair Ali 2-15)
Sharjah 131 for 8 in 19.3 overs
(Kashif Daud 51, Umair Ali 20, Rohan Mustafa 2-17, Sabir Rao 2-26)
