The century’s anniversary of the end of the First World War, commemorated last Sunday, also marks the decisive entry of oil into global technology and politics. It shaped the modern Middle East, bringing consequences we live with today. And it has lessons for today’s changes in the global order.
The war pitted Prussian coal, steel and railway timetables against Allied oil. New vehicles and weapons waged war on land, in the air and on the seas. Fleets of Parisian taxis, meters running, ferried soldiers to the front to win the crucial battle of the Marne. By 1918, British tanks lumbered forward at five miles per hour to break the German lines. Primitive biplanes had evolved into bombers that could reach Berlin.
Construction of a powerful German fleet was one of the pre-war signs that Europe’s rising power intended to challenge the century-long British hegemony. Winston Churchill’s decision in 1912 to convert the Royal Navy from coal to oil gave it the advantage in range and speed, but necessitated access to a secure source. The British government purchased a majority share in Anglo-Persian, later BP, which later embroiled them in the nationalisation of 1951-3 and the coup against the elected government of Mohammad Mossadegh in Tehran.
Oil from America, Venezuela, Mexico and Persia fuelled the Allied war effort. Withdrawing from Romania in 1916, they sabotaged the famous petroleum installations of Ploieşti to deny them to the Central Powers. At the war’s end, as Russia dissolved into revolution, the Turks attempted to seize the oil fields of Azerbaijan, where the young Stalin had cut his teeth as a Communist agitator.
Before the war, German and Turkish interests had sought to develop oil in Mesopotamia, raising British concerns for the safety of the route to India. The “Berlin to Baghdad railway”, a grandiose geopolitical project, in reality resolved into ramshackle lines. But it was one part of the broader pre-war geopolitical competition, whose mutual suspicions formed the tinder that burst into conflagration in 1914.
As part of the peace settlement, the British were determined to secure the former Ottoman province of Mosul, including a large Kurdish population. With deceptive casualness, British prime minister David Lloyd George announced French premier Georges Clemenceau’s inquiry of what he wanted. “Mosul. You shall have it,” Clemenceau replied. Mosul was incorporated into the British mandate state of Iraq, and the French received in turn a stake in the Iraq Petroleum Company.
Gertrude Bell, intrepid traveller and architect of the new country, wrote: “They are making such a horrible muddle of the Near East. I confidently anticipate it will be much worse than it was before the way”. The massive oil find at Kirkuk in 1927 vindicated Lloyd George’s ambition but continues today as a central target of contention between Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdish region.
The mandates of Palestine, Transjordan and Iraq were intended to secure a swathe of secure territory guarding the way to the oil of Persia and to India beyond. Geopolitical theorist Halford Mackinder had argued in a seminal 1904 article that the rise of railways was altering geopolitics and undercutting traditional British control of the seas, with land routes and the control of the Eurasian heartland becoming paramount. This came against the backdrop of the ‘great game’ for influence in Central Asia, where Russia, not Germany, had been Britain’s pre-war opponent.
Mackinder’s theory was extended by the development of new long-range planes, requiring suitable refuelling stops. Air-bases were established at Suez, and Habbaniya in Iraq, and in 1932, the first flight landed in Sharjah, an alternative to the Basra-Karachi part of the Indian route.
Today the Middle East’s oil resources are even more important than a century ago for the world. Even though booming American output reduces its direct dependence, the booming Asian states are more reliant than ever. The US still remains the region’s dominant power, but globally, the geopolitical balance has shifted partly back towards the multipolarity of 1914.
The western alliance is showing cracks over issues including Russian interference and sanctions on Iran. Moscow has struck oil deals with the Kurdish region and for inward investment with Mubadala Petroleum, and worked closely with Opec and particularly Saudi Arabia, all while remaining a partner of Iran.
Most strikingly, China’s massive ‘Belt and Road’ initiative aims to span Eurasia and the Indian Ocean with a web of electricity lines, oil and gas pipelines, railways, roads, ports and power plants. Investments in oil fields in Iran, Iraq and Abu Dhabi, and ports astride vital oil and gas trade routes in Djibouti, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, lead to a spreading regional footprint. Officially an economic development project, some observers see the BRI as an attempt at continental domination, or at least securing Chinese energy imports.
And, as in the immediate pre-war period, novel energy systems promise to reshape geopolitics. Electric vehicles and renewable energy may undercut the primacy of oil, gas and coal. New resources, such as cobalt, lithium and rare earth elements, rise in salience. Beijing’s aim seems to be to overcome its vulnerability in traditional energy with its excellence in manufacturing new technologies.
The global context has of course changed immeasurably since the First World War. Although the Middle East is beset by numerous conflicts, and tensions between the US, European Union, Russia and China have risen, there is hopefully nothing like the cataclysm of 1914 on the horizon. But new energy technologies and resources again promise to recast military and geopolitical balances, even while the region is still haunted by the long shadow of 1918.
Robin Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
INVESTMENT PLEDGES
Cartlow: $13.4m
Rabbitmart: $14m
Smileneo: $5.8m
Soum: $4m
imVentures: $100m
Plug and Play: $25m
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
SPECS
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Founders: Ines Mena, Claudia Ribas, Simona Agolini, Nourhan Hassan and Therese Hundt
Date started: January 2017, app launched November 2017
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Private/Retail/Leisure
Number of Employees: 18 employees, including full-time and flexible workers
Funding stage and size: Seed round completed Q4 2019 - $1m raised
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, 500 Startups, Vision Ventures, Seedstars, Mindshift Capital, Delta Partners Ventures, with support from the OQAL Angel Investor Network and UAE Business Angels
THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
Brief scores:
Toss: Kerala Knights, opted to fielf
Pakhtoons 109-5 (10 ov)
Fletcher 32; Lamichhane 3-17
Kerala Knights 110-2 (7.5 ov)
Morgan 46 not out, Stirling 40
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2014
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More coverage from the Future Forum
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
RESULTS
5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m
Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ahmed Al Mehairbi (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: AF Seven Skies, Bernardo Pinheiro, Qais Aboud
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: Almahroosa, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: AF Sumoud, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Adventurous, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The specs: McLaren 600LT
Price, base: Dh914,000
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 600hp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 620Nm @ 5,500rpm
Fuel economy 12.2.L / 100km
AIDA%20RETURNS
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Kanye%20West
%3Cp%3EYe%20%E2%80%94%20the%20rapper%20formerly%20known%20as%20Kanye%20West%20%E2%80%94%20has%20seen%20his%20net%20worth%20fall%20to%20%24400%20million%20in%20recent%20weeks.%20That%E2%80%99s%20a%20precipitous%20drop%20from%20Bloomberg%E2%80%99s%20estimates%20of%20%246.8%20billion%20at%20the%20end%20of%202021.%3Cbr%3EYe%E2%80%99s%20wealth%20plunged%20after%20business%20partners%2C%20including%20Adidas%2C%20severed%20ties%20with%20him%20on%20the%20back%20of%20anti-Semitic%20remarks%20earlier%20this%20year.%3Cbr%3EWest%E2%80%99s%20present%20net%20worth%20derives%20from%20cash%2C%20his%20music%2C%20real%20estate%20and%20a%20stake%20in%20former%20wife%20Kim%20Kardashian%E2%80%99s%20shapewear%20firm%2C%20Skims.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
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The Bio
Favourite place in UAE: Al Rams pearling village
What one book should everyone read: Any book written before electricity was invented. When a writer willingly worked under candlelight, you know he/she had a real passion for their craft
Your favourite type of pearl: All of them. No pearl looks the same and each carries its own unique characteristics, like humans
Best time to swim in the sea: When there is enough light to see beneath the surface
