Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun, according to Mao, but also from the spigot of an oilwell.
Libya’s peace accord, reached in the Moroccan city of Skhirat, is now “final”, according to UN envoy Bernardino Leon, and it is up to the parties – the House of Representatives operating from the east, and the General National Congress in Tripoli in the west – to accept or reject it by tomorrow.
The draft agreement texts barely mention oil, except in referring to the security of facilities. But the country’s energy resources are absolutely crucial to building a functioning state.
Libya’s oil production, about 1.8 million barrels per day before the revolution, fell almost to zero during the fighting in 2011, then rebounded before being interrupted by a series of blockades by pro-federalist groups in the east, protests and terrorist attacks. It now hovers at about 500,000 barrels per day, a slight improvement on last year.
With approximately 370 million barrels of oil in storage worldwide, prices are hovering about $50 per barrel and the geopolitical risk premium is zero, a stark contrast to the rise above $120 per barrel in 2011 caused by the Libyan revolution. In the absence of geopolitical disruption, low prices are likely to persist.
However, Russian-backed rebels in Ukraine, ISIL in Iraq and Syria, war in Yemen and the yet-to-be implemented Iranian nuclear deal all could change this. Stabilising Libya offers an achievable step towards offsetting some of these other energy security risks.
Complaints that the US is abdicating its role of guaranteeing security in the region ignore the facts that Washington is a long way from Tripoli, and that it is the EU and Libya’s neighbours that are bearing the brunt of the country’s breakdown. The UAE, Turkey, Egypt and Qatar have been consulted on the peace agreement but, of course, beyond this, outside interference has worsened and prolonged Libyan infighting.
The EU needs to play a stronger role in brokering and enforcing the Skhirat agreement, engaging neutrals and isolating rejectionists and militants. European complacency is baffling, in the face of an ISIL outpost on the Mediterranean in the city of Sirte, the surge of refugees, and the danger of spill-over to the Arab Spring’s democratic success story, Tunisia.
Terrorist groups based in Libya threaten Algerian petroleum facilities, insecurity damages the financial interests of major European energy companies, while supplies of Libyan gas would add to European leverage in the power play with Russia.
The Union for the Mediterranean in June launched a Platform for Gas to improve cooperation between the EU and North Africa. But the absence of a functioning government in the holder of North Africa’s biggest hydrocarbon reserves blows a gaping hole in the platform.
Libya’s desperate need for finance, particularly with low oil prices, puts it at the mercy of any armed group that can blockade a field or an export terminal.
A durable Libyan state structure will have to address the distribution of oil revenues, under a possible “federal” or at least decentralised plan. At the same time, it needs a coherent national energy strategy, infrastructure and achievable budget. A post-conflict Libya has a second shot at avoiding the rentier-state trap, and building a diversified economy, but needs outside expertise, of the kind the EU provided so well to post-communist Eastern Europe.
After the successful 2011 revolution and international intervention, the role of Libyan oil and gas was largely ignored. This time, the international community should not miss its chance to restore an important part of global energy security, the key to rebuilding Libya, and one of its two key levers of power.
Robin M Mills is Head of Consulting at Manaar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis.
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Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
The specs: 2018 Renault Koleos
Price, base: From Dh77,900
Engine: 2.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 170hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 233Nm @ 4,000rpm
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A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
Origin
Dan Brown
Doubleday
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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What is double taxation?
- Americans living abroad file taxes with the Internal Revenue Service, which can cost hundreds of dollars to complete even though about 60 per cent do not owe taxes, according to the Taxpayer Advocate Service
- Those obligations apply to millions of Americans residing overseas – estimates range from 3.9 million to 5.5 million – including so-called "accidental Americans" who are unaware they hold dual citizenship
- The double taxation policy has been a contentious issue for decades, with many overseas Americans feeling that it punishes them for pursuing opportunities abroad
- Unlike most countries, the US follows a citizenship-based taxation system, meaning that Americans must file taxes annually, even if they do not earn any income in the US.
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
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In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
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- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
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- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
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Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
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TEAMS
EUROPE:
Justin Rose, Francesco Molinari, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Alex Noren, Thorbjorn Olesen, Paul Casey, Sergio Garcia, Ian Poulter, Henrik Stenson
USA:
Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Bubba Watson, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau ( 1 TBC)
Scorebox
Sharjah Wanderers 20-25 Dubai Tigers (After extra-time)
Wanderers
Tries Gormley, Penalty
Cons Flaherty
Pens Flaherty 2
Tigers
Tries O’Donnell, Gibbons, Kelly
Cons Caldwell 2
Pens Caldwell, Cross
Champions League Last 16
Red Bull Salzburg (AUT) v Bayern Munich (GER)
Sporting Lisbon (POR) v Manchester City (ENG)
Benfica (POR) v Ajax (NED)
Chelsea (ENG) v Lille (FRA)
Atletico Madrid (ESP) v Manchester United (ENG)
Villarreal (ESP) v Juventus (ITA)
Inter Milan (ITA) v Liverpool (ENG)
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid (ESP)
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
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Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
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In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
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Sleep Well Beast
The National
4AD
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
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Starting price: Dh79,000
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
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The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
