The European car industry has skidded into its worst downturn in more than two decades following a collapse in demand due to the euro debt crisis.
Car makers are being forced to close plants and lay off thousands of workers in what is set to become a struggle for survival for some of Europe's most venerable brands.
"This crisis is going to put the very existence of some manufacturers such as PSA Peugeot Citroën under threat," says Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, the director of the Centre for Automotive Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen.
Only the top German players - Volkswagen, Audi, BMW and Daimler - are avoiding the slump, thanks to their global focus.
The latest victim is Opel, the loss-making unit of US giant General Motors (GM), which last week announced the shutdown of car production at its plant in Bochum, one of Opel's four German plants, in 2016 with the loss of up to 3,000 jobs.
In October, Ford Motor said it would close a Belgian plant employing more than 4,000 workers. In July, France's PSA Peugeot Citroën announced 8,000 job cuts and a factory closure, and it plans to shrink a further plant.
"This crisis is going to put the very existence of some manufacturers such as Peugeot under threat," says Professor Dudenhöffer. "European car sales this year are going to hit their lowest level in over 20 years.
"And they are going to keep on falling. The debt crisis won't be over next year or the year after that," he says.
Even if the big car makers survive, scores of their suppliers won't.
"We expect that 20 to 30 per cent of small and medium-sized components suppliers in southern Europe won't survive the crisis," says Prof Dudenhöffer.
He forecasts European car sales will shrink 7.9 per cent to 12.5 million units this year, followed by a drop of 3.4 per cent next year.
The declines have been dramatic in Italy, Spain and France where car sales have slumped by between 10 and 20 per cent this year.
"Next year, 3.5 million fewer cars will be sold in Europe than in 2005," says Prof Dudenhöffer. "That is equivalent to the annual production of more than 12 assembly plants."
It stands to reason. If you've been made redundant or think you may lose your job, purchasing a new car is likely to be among the last things on your mind.
"The debt crisis in Europe has been dominating the headlines for more than two years," says Matthias Wissmann, the president of the VDA German Automotive Industry Association.
"This perennial issue is depressing sentiment and making people put their plans on hold."
That even applies to Germany, which has so far been relatively unscathed by the debt crisis. New registrations in Germany are projected to fall 2 per cent this year, to 3.1 million units. The sector's slump is worse than during the global economic crisis of 2008/2009.
Then, European governments had enough cash to rev up car demand with programmes such as incentives to scrap old vehicles and buy new ones. This time, countries are so laden with debt they can't afford to prop up the car industry with major subsidies. And, even if they did, the general economic uncertainty would keep buyers away.
The automobile industry is a key sector for Europe. It employs two million people directly and 10 million in related manufacturing and service sectors, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association.
The austerity drive imposed by governments to reduce their debt burden in return for international bailouts has tipped the car industry into a vicious circle. Falling sales has triggered plant closures and layoffs, which is dampening demand even more.
The only players still doing relatively well in Europe are BMW, Daimler, VW and VW's luxury unit Audi. They are offsetting the European sales slump with strong gains in the United States and China, the world's top two car markets.
The crisis has revealed the German firms' strengths as starkly as it has exposed the weaknesses of their European rivals, which have focused too narrowly on their domestic markets.
"The main losers of 2012 are the European manufacturers in Italy and France, or the European subsidiaries of American auto groups in Germany - the mass producers who concentrated on the European market," says Helmut Becker, the former economic adviser-in-chief to BMW and the director of the Institute for Economic Analysis and Communication in Munich.
To add to their woes, Fiat, Ford, Opel and Peugeot, which all compete in the mid-priced segment and are strongly dependent on Europe, are being squeezed from two sides. From below, low-price competitors such as South Korea's Hyundai-Kia are eating into their market share. From above, Audi, Daimler and BMW are pushing into their segment with smaller cars.
"Regardless of the euro debt crisis and the banking crisis, this is clearly a structural problem," says Mr Becker. "The European markets are saturated. They're not growing, in fact they're shrinking in parts."
The key to success, or survival, he adds, is to join the "merciless competition" to sell to first-time car buyers in fast-growing emerging markets.
That's what the Germans are doing. BMW, Daimler, VW and Audi are all on course for record sales this year. BMW's global sales jumped 20 per cent in the first 11 months of the year to 1.66 million vehicles - already exceeding the whole of last year by 10 per cent.
German brands, and especially their premium offerings - luxury limousines, 4x4s and sports cars where German makers have an 80 per cent global market share - are in high demand among the burgeoning middle classes in China, India, Russia and Brazil.
In China, where car sales are projected to have grown by eight per cent to 13.2 million units this year, the Germans have reached a 22 per cent market share, says VDA.
In the US, where the car market is expected to grow 12 per cent to 14.3 million vehicles this year, sales of German brands have outpaced the market for the past seven years.
Last month alone, German manufacturers achieved a 28 per cent rise in sales of cars and light trucks in the US, almost twice the rate of growth of the overall US car market for that month.
The future looks bright for carmakers with global reach. VW last month said it planned to invest €50.2 billion (Dh242.62bn) in the coming three years in a bid to overtake Japan's Toyota as the world's biggest car maker by 2020.
Part of the money will go towards building new factories in China, Mexico and Russia. All the German players are investing in new factories in or close to the growth markets in a bid to lessen their long-term exposure to currency fluctuations.
Such a plan must seem like an unattainable dream to car makers such as Fiat and Peugeot at the moment.
Their immediate focus has to be to shrink to rid themselves of chronic overcapacity that is putting their survival at risk. Some analysts say up to eight factories will have to be closed around Europe.
"The European mass producers must urgently do all they can to massively reduce their overcapacity - that includes complete plant closures," says Peter Fuss, a partner at management consultancy Ernst & Young.
It's an unseasonably gloomy prospect for many thousands of Europeans.
business@thenational.ae
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
if you go
Getting there
Etihad (Etihad.com), Emirates (emirates.com) and Air France (www.airfrance.com) fly to Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport, from Abu Dhabi and Dubai respectively. Return flights cost from around Dh3,785. It takes about 40 minutes to get from Paris to Compiègne by train, with return tickets costing €19. The Glade of the Armistice is 6.6km east of the railway station.
Staying there
On a handsome, tree-lined street near the Chateau’s park, La Parenthèse du Rond Royal (laparenthesedurondroyal.com) offers spacious b&b accommodation with thoughtful design touches. Lots of natural woods, old fashioned travelling trunks as decoration and multi-nozzle showers are part of the look, while there are free bikes for those who want to cycle to the glade. Prices start at €120 a night.
More information: musee-armistice-14-18.fr ; compiegne-tourisme.fr; uk.france.fr
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Related
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The five pillars of Islam
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ETHE%20SPECS%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EEngine%3A%203.5-litre%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3ETransmission%3A%209-speed%20automatc%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20279hp%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20350Nm%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh250%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
FIGHT%20CARD
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Normcore explained
Something of a fashion anomaly, normcore is essentially a celebration of the unremarkable. The term was first popularised by an article in New York magazine in 2014 and has been dubbed “ugly”, “bland’ and "anti-style" by fashion writers. It’s hallmarks are comfort, a lack of pretentiousness and neutrality – it is a trend for those who would rather not stand out from the crowd. For the most part, the style is unisex, favouring loose silhouettes, thrift-shop threads, baseball caps and boyish trainers. It is important to note that normcore is not synonymous with cheapness or low quality; there are high-fashion brands, including Parisian label Vetements, that specialise in this style. Embraced by fashion-forward street-style stars around the globe, it’s uptake in the UAE has been relatively slow.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Regional Qualifier
The top three teams progress to the Asia Qualifier
Final: UAE beat Qatar by nine wickets
Third-place play-off: Kuwait beat Saudi Arabia by five runs
Table
1 UAE 5 5 0 10
2 Qatar 5 4 1 8
3 Saudi 5 3 2 6
4 Kuwait 5 2 3 4
5 Bahrain 5 1 4 2
6 Maldives 5 0 5 0
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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Virtual banks explained
What is a virtual bank?
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority defines it as a bank that delivers services through the internet or other electronic channels instead of physical branches. That means not only facilitating payments but accepting deposits and making loans, just like traditional ones. Other terms used interchangeably include digital or digital-only banks or neobanks. By contrast, so-called digital wallets or e-wallets such as Apple Pay, PayPal or Google Pay usually serve as intermediaries between a consumer’s traditional account or credit card and a merchant, usually via a smartphone or computer.
What’s the draw in Asia?
Hundreds of millions of people under-served by traditional institutions, for one thing. In China, India and elsewhere, digital wallets such as Alipay, WeChat Pay and Paytm have already become ubiquitous, offering millions of people an easy way to store and spend their money via mobile phone. Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines are also among the world’s biggest under-banked countries; together they have almost half a billion people.
Is Hong Kong short of banks?
No, but the city is among the most cash-reliant major economies, leaving room for newcomers to disrupt the entrenched industry. Ant Financial, an Alibaba Group Holding affiliate that runs Alipay and MYBank, and Tencent Holdings, the company behind WeBank and WeChat Pay, are among the owners of the eight ventures licensed to create virtual banks in Hong Kong, with operations expected to start as early as the end of the year.
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Fixtures
Wednesday January 8 –Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 – Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 – UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable
Amitav Ghosh, University of Chicago Press
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Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The low down on MPS
What is myofascial pain syndrome?
Myofascial pain syndrome refers to pain and inflammation in the body’s soft tissue. MPS is a chronic condition that affects the fascia (connective tissue that covers the muscles, which develops knots, also known as trigger points).
What are trigger points?
Trigger points are irritable knots in the soft tissue that covers muscle tissue. Through injury or overuse, muscle fibres contract as a reactive and protective measure, creating tension in the form of hard and, palpable nodules. Overuse and sustained posture are the main culprits in developing trigger points.
What is myofascial or trigger-point release?
Releasing these nodules requires a hands-on technique that involves applying gentle sustained pressure to release muscular shortness and tightness. This eliminates restrictions in connective tissue in orderto restore motion and alleviate pain. Therapy balls have proven effective at causing enough commotion in the tissue, prompting the release of these hard knots.
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
How tumultuous protests grew
- A fuel tax protest by French drivers appealed to wider anti-government sentiment
- Unlike previous French demonstrations there was no trade union or organised movement involved
- Demonstrators responded to online petitions and flooded squares to block traffic
- At its height there were almost 300,000 on the streets in support
- Named after the high visibility jackets that drivers must keep in cars
- Clashes soon turned violent as thousands fought with police at cordons
- An estimated two dozen people lost eyes and many others were admitted to hospital
Expert input
If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?
“There are a few shoes that have ‘grail’ status for me. But the one I have always wanted is the Nike x Patta x Parra Air Max 1 - Cherrywood. To get a pair in my size brand new is would cost me between Dh8,000 and Dh 10,000.” Jack Brett
“If I had all the money, I would approach Nike and ask them to do my own Air Force 1, that’s one of my dreams.” Yaseen Benchouche
“There’s nothing out there yet that I’d pay an insane amount for, but I’d love to create my own shoe with Tinker Hatfield and Jordan.” Joshua Cox
“I think I’d buy a defunct footwear brand; I’d like the challenge of reinterpreting a brand’s history and changing options.” Kris Balerite
“I’d stir up a creative collaboration with designers Martin Margiela of the mixed patchwork sneakers, and Yohji Yamamoto.” Hussain Moloobhoy
“If I had all the money in the world, I’d live somewhere where I’d never have to wear shoes again.” Raj Malhotra
hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
Adele: The Stories Behind The Songs
Caroline Sullivan
Carlton Books
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
