Shoppers at Al Wahda Mall in the capital. The demand for oil shows that emerging markets and the Gulf economies are recovering.
Shoppers at Al Wahda Mall in the capital. The demand for oil shows that emerging markets and the Gulf economies are recovering.

Forecasts brighten for Gulf GDPs



Gulf economies will fare better than expected this year if oil sustains its rally for the rest of the year, creating an extra US$114 billion (Dh418.64bn) windfall for the region. Some regional economists are considering upgrading their GDP forecasts if oil maintains its gains and budget surpluses are bigger than expected.

"I have upgraded my forecast because oil at $60 a barrel will allow Saudi Arabia to cross the $400bn mark in terms of the size of its economy, which will grow rather than contract to the extent we expected initially," said Dr John Sfakianakis, the chief economist at SABB, the bank based in Riyadh. "The same goes for other GCC countries that export oil, including the UAE." The IMF predicts growth in the Middle East will halve this year and expects the UAE economy to contract 0.6 per cent. That still beats an expected 1.3 per cent contraction in the global economy, the worst anticipated economic performance since the Second World War.

But recent gains in the price of oil and positive indicators starting to emerge from regional stock markets has led to a rethink on growth estimates made earlier in the year. "Given that we have such an expected increase in terms of revenue, the size of the economy is due to increase," said Dr Sfakianakis. "Oil prices will correct down at least once this year but I don't think it will go back to the $33 scenario we witnessed earlier this year."

Standard Chartered Bank said this week it expected oil to reach $75 a barrel by the end of the year. The bank estimated an average budget "break-even" price of about $42 a barrel for Gulf states. "We see about $114bn of 'extra' revenues in 2009 if oil prices continue on their current trend," Standard Chartered said in a report on Tuesday. Dr Sfakianakis revised his estimate for nominal GDP for Saudi Arabia this year to $379bn from $334bn earlier this year. Nominal GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced expressed in current prices, while real GDP takes into account other factors such as inflation.

Dr Sfakianakis's projections for real GDP growth for Saudi Arabia remain flat. Most economists are predicting negative growth in the UAE this year but indications of stability returning to the property sector and a stock market rally could lead to a more upbeat appraisal. Stocks closed at their highest since November at the Dubai Financial Market yesterday, while the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) also climbed 1.8 per cent after Standard Chartered said the property market was starting to stabilise as mortgages became easier to obtain.

The bank estimated 0.5 per cent growth for the UAE, while EFG-Hermes and Samba Financial Group predicted growth of minus 1.7 per cent and minus 0.5 per cent respectively. "While I'm personally maintaining my own GDP forecasts, I wouldn't be surprised if Gulf economists start revising their forecasts upwards based on higher oil prices and a general trend of recovery in regional economies," said Nasser Saidi, the chief economist at the Dubai International Financial Centre.

"Earlier recovery in emerging markets including the Gulf means that the demand for commodities, and particularly oil, will start rising, which is positive." Higher oil prices have also encouraged foreign investors in recent weeks, resulting in rallies in regional markets. Trading on the ADX went from aggregate selling in the first few months of the year to year highs last month. Analysts say the improved performance of regional markets has been triggered by the strengthening price of oil, although they warn a correction may be imminent.

"The market rallies are linked to oil prices and improved sentiment, and moreover are coming from a low base, given that regional markets were oversold and are now recovering," said Dr Mahdi Mattar, the chief economist at Shuaa Capital. "Though there has been capital flow of funds coming to the region we haven't seen capital flow like we saw last year." Not all economists are convinced the strengthening price of crude will translate into stronger growth.

"Oil prices have increased but this is not due to a fundamental increase in demand for the commodity globally," Dr Mattar said. "Inventory levels in the US are at an all-time high, and technically oil prices shouldn't be at these levels. I'm not upgrading my forecast for now." The IMF, which published its latest economic growth projections for the region in April, says it has no plans to revise estimates in the coming quarter.

"There have not been any developments that have led us to revise our published GDP growth projections for [Gulf] countries for 2009," said Masood Ahmed, an economist at the IMF. The IMF's next official update of GDP forecast figures is due in October. shamdan@thenational.ae

Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Rating: 2/5
 
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%209
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041mm%20%E2%80%93%20352%20x%20430%3B%2045mm%20%E2%80%93%20396%20x%20484%3B%20always-on%20Retina%20LTPO%20OLED%2C%202000%20nits%20max%3B%20Ion-X%20glass%20(aluminium%20cases)%2C%20sapphire%20crystal%20(stainless%20steel%20cases)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20S9%2064-bit%2C%20W3%20wireless%2C%202nd-gen%20Ultra%20Wideband%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2064GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20watchOS%2010%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EHealth%20metrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Blood%20oxygen%20sensor%2C%20electrical%20heart%20sensor%20and%20ECG%2C%203rd-gen%20optical%20heart%20sensor%2C%20high%20and%20low%20heart%20rate%20notifications%2C%20irregular%20rhythm%20notifications%2C%20sleep%20stages%2C%20temperature%20sensing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEmergency%20services%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Emergency%20SOS%2C%20international%20emergency%20calling%2C%20crash%20detection%2C%20fall%20detection%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GPS%2FGPS%20%2B%20cellular%3B%20Wi-Fi%2C%20LTE%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Apple%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP6X%2C%20water%20resistant%20up%20to%2050m%2C%20dust%20resistant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20308mAh%20Li-ion%2C%20up%20to%2018h%20regular%2F36h%20low%20power%3B%20wireless%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20eSIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinishes%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Aluminium%20%E2%80%93%20midnight%2C%20pink%2C%20Product%20Red%2C%20silver%2C%20starlight%3B%20stainless%20steel%20%E2%80%93%20gold%2C%20graphite%2C%20silver%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Watch%20Series%209%2C%20woven%20magnetic-to-USB-C%20charging%20cable%2C%20band%2Floop%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Starts%20at%20Dh1%2C599%20(41mm)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C719%20(45mm)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Gully Boy

Director: Zoya Akhtar
Producer: Excel Entertainment & Tiger Baby
Cast: Ranveer Singh, Alia Bhatt, Kalki Koechlin, Siddhant Chaturvedi​​​​​​​
Rating: 4/5 stars

Bookshops: A Reader's History by Jorge Carrión (translated from the Spanish by Peter Bush),
Biblioasis

UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS

- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns 

- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;

- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces

- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,

- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.

Various Artists 
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
​​​​​​​

THE SPECS

Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine 

Power: 420kW

Torque: 780Nm

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Price: From Dh1,350,000

On sale: Available for preorder now

Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
​​​​​​​Penguin Press

57%20Seconds
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rusty%20Cundieff%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJosh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Morgan%20Freeman%2C%20Greg%20Germann%2C%20Lovie%20Simone%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Business Insights
  • Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
  • The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
  • US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode

Directors: Raj & DK

Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon

Rating: 4/5

Company%20profile%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EElggo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20August%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Luma%20Makari%20and%20Mirna%20Mneimneh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Education%20technology%20%2F%20health%20technology%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESize%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Four%20employees%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

The Kingfisher Secret
Anonymous, Penguin Books

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Rating: 4/5
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%20train%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20and%20synchronous%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E800hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E950Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEight-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E25.7kWh%20lithium-ion%3Cbr%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%203.4sec%3Cbr%3E0-200km%2Fh%3A%2011.4sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E312km%2Fh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20electric-only%20range%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2060km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Q3%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1.2m%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.5-litre%20V12%20and%20three%20electric%20motors%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C015hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C500Nm%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Early%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh2%20million%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

At Everton Appearances: 77; Goals: 17

At Manchester United Appearances: 559; Goals: 253

Padmaavat

Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali

Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh

3.5/5

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding

Electoral College Victory

Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate. 

 

Popular Vote Tally

The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.

Sarfira

Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad

Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal 

Rating: 2/5

Where can I submit a sample?

Volunteers can now submit DNA samples at a number of centres across Abu Dhabi. The programme is open to all ages.

Collection centres in Abu Dhabi include:

  • Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC)
  • Biogenix Labs in Masdar City
  • Al Towayya in Al Ain
  • NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City
  • Bareen International Hospital
  • NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
  • NMC Royal Medical Centre - Abu Dhabi
  • NMC Royal Women’s Hospital.
The biog

Full name: Aisha Abdulqader Saeed

Age: 34

Emirate: Dubai

Favourite quote: "No one has ever become poor by giving"

The specs

Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now

Key products and UAE prices

iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229

iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649

iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179

Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.

The specs

  Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

As You Were

Liam Gallagher

(Warner Bros)