Business executives in the GCC will be nervously watching the outcome of elections in Greece today.
Billed as a referendum on whether Greece will stay in the euro zone, the result could have a far-reaching impact beyond the single-currency bloc.
Analysts fear a euro-zone break-up and the rush from banks to build capital to protect themselves against the turmoil could lead to the most severe credit crunch since the global financial crisis of 2009.
Under such a scenario, GCC financial markets would be hit by the shock waves.
"Financial linkages are the most concerning as the consequences could be severe," analysts at Emirates NBD warned in a research report released last week.
"European banks may be required to pare assets and credit exposures, including to the GCC."
Lenders from the continent have played an active part in the region's growth, helping fund everything from the Palm islands off Dubai's coast to expansion in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Banks, especially in Bahrain, depend on European lending through the local interbank market.
But it is companies that are the most heavily reliant on European bank lending.
Entities in the UAE owed US$86 billion (Dh315.83bn) to European banks as of the end of last year, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and Emirates NBD. British banks were owed $56bn of that amount, with UAE entities owing $30bn to continental banks. In contrast, Saudi Arabia's reliance on European bank lending is much smaller.
Even more vulnerable are the financial systems of Qatar and Bahrain. Qatar's rapid rush to build its infrastructure as it prepares for the 2022 Fifa World Cup means its reliance on European banks has grown quickly. Foreign bank liability to total assets in the country's banking system is 23 per cent, more than double that of the UAE, and up from 19 per cent in December.
Bahrain, too, has high debts. Cross-border claims, generally loans from international, especially European, banks, account for 60 per cent of GDP in the kingdom.
But the exact impact of a so-called "Grexit"on credit growth in the region is tricky to determine.
Credit Suisse analysts estimated last week that if Greece were to leave and be followed by Spain, Ireland, Italy and Portugal, lending by European banks would contract by about €1.3 trillion (Dh6.03tn). That, of course, is the worst-case scenario.
Even so, there are already signs European banks are scaling back their exposure to the region as the single-currency crisis escalates.
"A number of euro-area commercial banks have pulled out of syndicated as well as bilateral lending to UAE and other GCC member countries to meet new capital adequacy criteria to be in force in Europe on July 1 as well as to reduce exposures to a region for which risk-aversion has become the watchword," said Elliot Riordan, a senior economist at the World Bank.
Lending by euro-zone banks outside the borders of the single currency bloc dropped by 40 per cent in the first three months of this year compared with the same period of last year, BIS data shows.
A Greek exit would be likely to accelerate the credit pullback.
The GCC is better prepared for a credit tightening than it was when the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 triggered a freezing of international capital markets. Large chunks of corporate debt have been paid off and the credit bubble of 2008 has deflated.
But a euro-zone break up would still make it trickier for companies to refinance debt and raise new funding.
One problem for the region is that a significant lump of its reliance on foreign and, in particular European, bank funding is short term. More than 50 per cent of cross-border claims mature by the end of the year.
"The funding conditions for regional corporates are less than ideal as banks are not growing their balance sheets and the environment is volatile," said Timucin Engin, the associate director of financial services for Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Standard & Poor's.
The IMF estimates UAE Government-related entities have as much as $30bn in debts due this year.
For companies looking to refinance debt, sales of sukuk and other bonds may help to fill the void.
Local banks are also expected to pick up some of the shortfall. They have much higher capital adequacy ratios than their European peers thanks to an injection of liquidity from their governments in 2008 and 2009 and a cleansing of bad loans.
But they cannot mop up all the demand.
"Domestic banks are unlikely to be able to plug the entire gap left by foreign banks," wrote economists at Capital Economics in a research report last week.
It warned that SMEs too small to access bond markets would be hardest squeezed.
Credit conditions are already expected to stay tepid in the region this year as some banks continue to build safeguards against non-performing loans. Lending growth is forecast by S&P to be 4 per cent in the UAE this year.
Borrowing in the UAE is already set to be constrained by rules due to come in from September 30 limiting banks' exposure to the Government and companies linked to the state.
A dramatic outcome to the Greek elections could trigger another drag on lending growth.
tarnold@thenational.ae
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
Ain Issa camp:
- Established in 2016
- Houses 13,309 people, 2,092 families, 62 per cent children
- Of the adult population, 49 per cent men, 51 per cent women (not including foreigners annexe)
- Most from Deir Ezzor and Raqqa
- 950 foreigners linked to ISIS and their families
- NGO Blumont runs camp management for the UN
- One of the nine official (UN recognised) camps in the region
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
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Test series fixtures
(All matches start at 2pm UAE)
1st Test Lord's, London from Thursday to Monday
2nd Test Nottingham from July 14-18
3rd Test The Oval, London from July 27-31
4th Test Manchester from August 4-8
Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
MATCH INFO
Crawley Town 3 (Tsaroulla 50', Nadesan 53', Tunnicliffe 70')
Leeds United 0
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 592bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Price: Dh980,000
On sale: now
more from Janine di Giovanni
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
INDIA'S%20TOP%20INFLUENCERS
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20Profile
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The five pillars of Islam
3%20Body%20Problem
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Company%20profile
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The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
Autumn international scores
Saturday, November 24
Italy 3-66 New Zealand
Scotland 14-9 Argentina
England 37-18 Australia
UAE tour of the Netherlands
UAE squad: Rohan Mustafa (captain), Shaiman Anwar, Ghulam Shabber, Mohammed Qasim, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Chirag Suri, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Mohammed Naveed, Amjad Javed, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Fixtures:
Monday, 1st 50-over match
Wednesday, 2nd 50-over match
Thursday, 3rd 50-over match
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Barcelona v Liverpool, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Liverpool v Barcelona, Tuesday, May 7, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports
How to turn your property into a holiday home
- Ensure decoration and styling – and portal photography – quality is high to achieve maximum rates.
- Research equivalent Airbnb homes in your location to ensure competitiveness.
- Post on all relevant platforms to reach the widest audience; whether you let personally or via an agency know your potential guest profile – aiming for the wrong demographic may leave your property empty.
- Factor in costs when working out if holiday letting is beneficial. The annual DCTM fee runs from Dh370 for a one-bedroom flat to Dh1,200. Tourism tax is Dh10-15 per bedroom, per night.
- Check your management company has a physical office, a valid DTCM licence and is licencing your property and paying tourism taxes. For transparency, regularly view your booking calendar.
Company%20Profile
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Normcore explained
Something of a fashion anomaly, normcore is essentially a celebration of the unremarkable. The term was first popularised by an article in New York magazine in 2014 and has been dubbed “ugly”, “bland’ and "anti-style" by fashion writers. It’s hallmarks are comfort, a lack of pretentiousness and neutrality – it is a trend for those who would rather not stand out from the crowd. For the most part, the style is unisex, favouring loose silhouettes, thrift-shop threads, baseball caps and boyish trainers. It is important to note that normcore is not synonymous with cheapness or low quality; there are high-fashion brands, including Parisian label Vetements, that specialise in this style. Embraced by fashion-forward street-style stars around the globe, it’s uptake in the UAE has been relatively slow.
Results
3pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (Dirt) 1,000m; Winner: Dhafra, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
3.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Al Ajayib, Antonio Fresu, Eric Lemartinel
4pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Ashtr, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi, Majed Al Jahouri
4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Falcon Claws, Szczepan Mazur, Doug Watson
5pm: Sheikh Dr Sultan bin Khalifa Al Nahyan Cup – Prestige Handicap (PA) Dh100,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Al Mufham SB, Al Moatasem Al Balushi, Badar Al Hajri
5.30pm: Sharjah Marathon – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 2,700m; Winner: Asraa Min Al Talqa, Al Moatasem Al Balushi, Helal Al Alawi
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
The biog
Name: Atheja Ali Busaibah
Date of birth: 15 November, 1951
Favourite books: Ihsan Abdel Quddous books, such as “The Sun will Never Set”
Hobbies: Reading and writing poetry
How it works
1) The liquid nanoclay is a mixture of water and clay that aims to convert desert land to fertile ground
2) Instead of water draining straight through the sand, it apparently helps the soil retain water
3) One application is said to last five years
4) The cost of treatment per hectare (2.4 acres) of desert varies from $7,000 to $10,000 per hectare
Results
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Pros%20and%20cons%20of%20BNPL
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Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
Ticket prices
- Golden circle - Dh995
- Floor Standing - Dh495
- Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
- Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
- Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
- Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
- Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
- Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
The 10 Questions
- Is there a God?
- How did it all begin?
- What is inside a black hole?
- Can we predict the future?
- Is time travel possible?
- Will we survive on Earth?
- Is there other intelligent life in the universe?
- Should we colonise space?
- Will artificial intelligence outsmart us?
- How do we shape the future?
Brief scores:
Day 1
Toss: India, chose to bat
India (1st innings): 215-2 (89 ov)
Agarwal 76, Pujara 68 not out; Cummins 2-40
