There are few better ways to draw attention to an investment bank's presence in a market than by producing excellent research. Not only does this encourage liquidity, but it can also provide a healthy deal flow for the firm.
Until recently, this has been lacking in the Gulf region. Coverage is not up to the level that you find in emerging markets elsewhere, while the lack of critical mass makes it difficult to establish any consensus.
According to a survey carried out by Euromoney magazine, which appears in its August edition, the best research in the Middle East is carried out by regional players such as Global Investment House, Shuaa Capital and EFG-Hermes.
They emerged as the most highly rated analysts, in most instances sharing the first three places in each industry sector. But there is room for additional players: the breadth and depth of coverage is very poor, with only 60 per cent of companies in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar being covered.
Elsewhere the figure is much lower. Only 21 companies in the region have coverage from at least four brokers - this of a total of 858 listed companies.
EFG-Hermes, for example, actively covers 75 stocks, making sure to issue, at the minimum, regular quarterly reports as well as in-depth update notes. "The number of stocks we cover will rise significantly by year end," says Eiji Aono, head of research at EFG-Hermes.
As global investors pour more money into the Middle East they are demanding an increasing amount of company information. Equity research in the Middle East has not only been slow to respond to the demand, but also uncertain about the degree of advice it can give to clients.
For example, analysts have been reluctant to issue "Sell" warnings, although an informal code has resulted in most people understanding that a "Hold" recommendation implies that you should dump the stock. This is an important step forward because it shows objectivity.
A negative investment view is not always welcome and domestic investors don't like it very much, but such recommendations are the beginning of a mature market.
When EFG-Hermes issued a "Sell" note on Zain Saudi in June, the analysts were heavily criticised by the local press. "Many of the markets are still immature in terms of their appreciation for fundamental research and their understanding of its purpose," says Mr Aono of EFG-Hermes. "Many local investors as well as some of the companies are only now beginning to realise that investment research is not issued just to drive a stock higher, but to provide a balanced view as to the potential for the company and most importantly, for the stock." Since the note on Zain Saudi was issued, the stock has fallen by 17 per cent.
In a similar fashion, Morgan Stanley's bearish sentiments on the Dubai property market sent shares tumbling, prompting recriminations from some of the companies highlighted in the report.
However, it remains difficult to benefit from falling markets in the Middle East. Short-selling is either impossible from a structural point of view - or just downright illegal. Is this likely to change? Walid Shihabi, director of research at Shuaa Capital, thinks that there is the possibility of the introduction of derivatives, but it will depend on a fresh approach from the regulators.
"From a regulatory perspective, Saudi Arabia is probably the most developed," he says. "There is still quite a bit to be done in the UAE, Egypt has stagnated, while Kuwait has no independent regulator at all."
New funds are launching every day, aware that growth is more likely to come from the Gulf than elsewhere over the next 12 months. According to data from Emerging Portfolio Fund Research Global, there have been net inflows of US$1.3 billion (Dh4.8bn) into Middle East and North Africa equity funds. This contrasts sharply with a figure of just $51 million last year.
The potential for growth has not escaped the notice of international bankers. Swiss bank UBS is opening an equity research office in Dubai at the end of August to cover stocks in the Gulf region as part of an expansion in the Middle East. Other bulge bracket banks like Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers have also boosted their teams in the region in recent months.
There is more than enough work to go around: there are more than 110 initial public offerings scheduled for the second half of this year, according to Zawya IPO Monitor, with 55 in Saudi Arabia, more than 30 in the United Arab Emirates and the rest in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman. Most of the deals are coming from family-owned enterprises that are looking for funds to expand overseas.
The local firms say they welcome the challenge. "Competition will help investors and encourage the markets to be more mature," says Faisal Hasan, head of research at Global Investment House.
"At the moment most stocks are covered by two or three players. We would like to see companies in the region to be covered by eight to nine research houses. There is room for growth, it will encourage institutional investors, increase transparency and corporate governance." Just as long as they don't poach their best analysts.
rwright@thenational.ae
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
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Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
BeIN Sports currently has the rights to show
- Champions League
- English Premier League
- Spanish Primera Liga
- Italian, French and Scottish leagues
- Wimbledon and other tennis majors
- Formula One
- Rugby Union - Six Nations and European Cups
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
SPECS%3A%20Polestar%203
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The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
The%20Mandalorian%20season%203%20episode%201
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Company%20Profile
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MATCH INFO
Mainz 0
RB Leipzig 5 (Werner 11', 48', 75', Poulsen 23', Sabitzer 36')
Man of the Match: Timo Werner (RB Leipzig)
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Three tips from La Perle's performers
1 The kind of water athletes drink is important. Gwilym Hooson, a 28-year-old British performer who is currently recovering from knee surgery, found that out when the company was still in Studio City, training for 12 hours a day. “The physio team was like: ‘Why is everyone getting cramps?’ And then they realised we had to add salt and sugar to the water,” he says.
2 A little chocolate is a good thing. “It’s emergency energy,” says Craig Paul Smith, La Perle’s head coach and former Cirque du Soleil performer, gesturing to an almost-empty open box of mini chocolate bars on his desk backstage.
3 Take chances, says Young, who has worked all over the world, including most recently at Dragone’s show in China. “Every time we go out of our comfort zone, we learn a lot about ourselves,” she says.
UAE's final round of matches
- Sep 1, 2016 Beat Japan 2-1 (away)
- Sep 6, 2016 Lost to Australia 1-0 (home)
- Oct 6, 2016 Beat Thailand 3-1 (home)
- Oct 11, 2016 Lost to Saudi Arabia 3-0 (away)
- Nov 15, 2016 Beat Iraq 2-0 (home)
- Mar 23, 2017 Lost to Japan 2-0 (home)
- Mar 28, 2017 Lost to Australia 2-0 (away)
- June 13, 2017 Drew 1-1 with Thailand (away)
- Aug 29, 2017 v Saudi Arabia (home)
- Sep 5, 2017 v Iraq (away)
TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Company%20profile
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Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (all kick-offs UAE time)
Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin (10.30pm)
Saturday
Freiburg v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)
Paderborn v Hoffenheim (5.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund (5.30pm)
Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen (5.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)
Sunday
Schalke v Augsburg (3.30pm)
Mainz v RB Leipzig (5.30pm)
Cologne v Fortuna Dusseldorf (8pm)
EA Sports FC 25
Developer: EA Vancouver, EA Romania
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin (11.30pm)
Saturday Freiburg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Dortmund, Cologne v Wolfsburg, Arminia Bielefeld v Mainz (6.30pm) Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig (9.30pm)
Sunday Werder Bremen v Stuttgart (6.30pm), Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen (9pm)
Monday Hoffenheim v Augsburg (11.30pm)
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.
THE LOWDOWN
Romeo Akbar Walter
Rating: 2/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Robby Grewal
Cast: John Abraham, Mouni Roy, Jackie Shroff and Sikandar Kher
Uefa Nations League: How it works
The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.
The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.
Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
A%20QUIET%20PLACE
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EMIRATES'S%20REVISED%20A350%20DEPLOYMENT%20SCHEDULE
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In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
