Gulf states could be caught in the crossfire of a global protectionism war unless leading nations can resolve differences over currency policies, economists say.
The warning comes as global leaders struggled to resolve differences over currency policies blamed for distorting trade and investment on the first day of the Group of 20 (G20) leading and emerging economies summit in Seoul.
The former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, and other high-profile figures have warned that a failure to agree on such issues could increase the risk of trade protectionism breaking out globally.
Any measures to limit international trade would have significant implications for the Gulf, which relies on flows of global goods and on foreign buyers of its oil.
Monica Malik, a senior economist at EFG-Hermes in Dubai, said: "If there was a marked increase in trade protectionism we would have lower global growth and demand for oil would decline."
G20 leaders have gathered in the South Korean capital to map out how to stop global economic imbalances and defuse rows over currencies.
Barack Obama, the US president, tried to set an upbeat tone for the talks by saying he hoped the G20 would outline mechanisms for broad-based and balanced global economic growth.
But doubts exist on how much the two-day meeting can achieve. Ms Malik said: "The G20 focus will be on addressing trade imbalances but there is likely to be little meaningful agreement to emerge."
At the heart of the disagreement are currency tensions between the US and China. The US is accusing China of not allowing the yuan to rise and accumulating currency reserves, leading to distortions in the world economy and trade.
China says quantitative easing measures by the US are weakening the US dollar and creating excess liquidity, which is swamping emerging economies with destabilising capital inflows.
Although Saudi Arabia is the only GCC nation in the G20, other economies in the region are closely monitoring the situation, as five of the six Gulf states have their currencies pegged to the greenback. China is also a large consumer of the region's oil.
Mr Greenspan, writing in yesterday's Financial Times, and the Bank of England governor Mervyn King this week became the latest to warn that unless a solution was found the row risked descending into a trade war.
Stephen King, the chief economist at HSBC, said: "There's a growing risk we will end up with protectionist policies."
Trade protectionism measures usually work by limiting the flow of goods through tariffs on imported products, restrictive quotas or other government regulations. They are intended to protect domestic businesses and jobs from foreign competition.
The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, has called for leaders to take a strong stance against trade protectionism by reviving the last round of Doha negotiations on liberalising trade.
The G20 will not address proposals put forward by the US last month to limit trade surpluses and deficits to 4 per cent of GDP to correct imbalances in the global flow of goods and capital.
Such moves could have a big impact on the Gulf, given its large trade surpluses from oil exports.
tarnold@thenational.ae
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
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From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
MANDOOB
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Mountain%20Boy
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
Read more about the coronavirus
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The bio
Favourite book: Peter Rabbit. I used to read it to my three children and still read it myself. If I am feeling down it brings back good memories.
Best thing about your job: Getting to help people. My mum always told me never to pass up an opportunity to do a good deed.
Best part of life in the UAE: The weather. The constant sunshine is amazing and there is always something to do, you have so many options when it comes to how to spend your day.
Favourite holiday destination: Malaysia. I went there for my honeymoon and ended up volunteering to teach local children for a few hours each day. It is such a special place and I plan to retire there one day.
RACE SCHEDULE
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday, September 29
First practice: 7am - 8.30am
Second practice: 11am - 12.30pm
Saturday, September 30
Qualifying: 1pm - 2pm
Sunday, October 1
Race: 11am - 1pm
Company%20Profile
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Veere di Wedding
Dir: Shashanka Ghosh
Starring: Kareena Kapoo-Khan, Sonam Kapoor, Swara Bhaskar and Shikha Talsania
Verdict: 4 Stars
Read more from Johann Chacko
Seemar’s top six for the Dubai World Cup Carnival:
1. Reynaldothewizard
2. North America
3. Raven’s Corner
4. Hawkesbury
5. New Maharajah
6. Secret Ambition
Directed by: Craig Gillespie
Starring: Emma Stone, Emma Thompson, Joel Fry
4/5
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 258hp at 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,400rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.4L/100km
Price, base: from D215,000 (Dh230,000 as tested)
On sale: now
Company%20Profile
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The Limehouse Golem
Director: Juan Carlos Medina
Cast: Olivia Cooke, Bill Nighy, Douglas Booth
Three stars
How does ToTok work?
The calling app is available to download on Google Play and Apple App Store
To successfully install ToTok, users are asked to enter their phone number and then create a nickname.
The app then gives users the option add their existing phone contacts, allowing them to immediately contact people also using the application by video or voice call or via message.
Users can also invite other contacts to download ToTok to allow them to make contact through the app.
The Travel Diaries of Albert Einstein The Far East, Palestine, and Spain, 1922 – 1923
Editor Ze’ev Rosenkranz
Princeton
Company%20profile
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JOKE'S%20ON%20YOU
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if you go
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Seoul from Dh3,775 return, including taxes
The package
Ski Safari offers a seven-night ski package to Korea, including five nights at the Dragon Valley Hotel in Yongpyong and two nights at Seoul CenterMark hotel, from £720 (Dh3,488) per person, including transfers, based on two travelling in January
The info
Visit www.gokorea.co.uk
EMIRATES'S%20REVISED%20A350%20DEPLOYMENT%20SCHEDULE
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MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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