Japan begins to tally up the cost



Many of Japan's largest companies are struggling to open for business after the earthquake and tsunami that will have far-reaching consequences for global trade.

The world's third-largest economy has been ground down to a virtual standstill after Friday's massive disaster, and economic aftershocks are expected for the world's motor , electronics, oil and gas, insurance, aviation, shipping and nuclear industries.

The car makers Toyota, Nissan and Honda have suspended operations at 10 factories while Sony, the electronics giant, has temporarily shuttered six factories, although only one sustained major damage.

The weight of the economic fallout is leading to dire predictions for the Japanese economy.

"The Nikkei can drop about 20 per cent from a recent high of around 10,900," said Masaru Hamasaki, a senior strategist at Toyota Asset Management.

Japan's giant export machine should eventually be able to resurrect itself, as few major industries are clustered in the country's north west where the damage occurred.

Nonetheless, a grim picture is unfolding. A fifth of the country's nuclear energy capability has been switched off and major oil refineries have been knocked out of action.

And the area of the country most directly affected by the quake has about US$300 billion (Dh1.1 trillion) of insured property, according to the disaster-modelling company Air Worldwide. Japan has shut down a total of 774,000 barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity since the earthquake, the Eurasia Group said.

With many Japanese ports still closed after the powerful earthquake and tsunami in north-east Japan, it could take several days if not weeks before shipping activity in the region returns to normal, traders and shipbrokers said.

The damage to Japan's nuclear facilities could also force a re-examination of planned nuclear energy projects around the world, analysts said.

The natural disaster sent ripple effects towards Japan's consumer products sector. Canon, the world's largest maker of digital cameras, planned to halt operations at eight production and development facilities.

Suzuki also planned today to stop production and operations at all six of its Japanese plants for an undetermined amount of time because of delayed deliveries from parts makers in areas affected by the earthquake.

Japan is one of Dubai's largest trade partners, representing 5 per cent of direct imports and 6 per cent of free-zone imports into the emirate in 2009, according to data from the Dubai Export Development Corporation (DEDC).

Direct imports that year totalled Dh16.3bn, while imports through free zones were worth Dh8.5bn in 2009.

Dubai's main imports from Japan are machinery, electrical and electronics equipment, as well as photographic goods such as cameras, according to the DEDC.

Emergency shutdowns at earthquake-stricken nuclear plants will result in Japan importing more fuel for thermal power generation.

In the short term, Japan is likely to turn to fuel oil and coal to satisfy power demand. Longer term, suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), including Qatar, will benefit.

The scale of the damage to nuclear power plants could trigger a rethink of Tokyo's plans to build significant new nuclear capacity, experts said.

"The alternative to nuclear is LNG," the consultancy Bernstein Research said in a report. "If the 10 gigawatt nuclear expansion is curtailed, it could benefit Australian LNG exporters."

International oil companies are developing big projects to export gas from Australia in the form of LNG, but those shipments mostly lie years in the future.

In the meantime, Qatar has excess LNG production capacity and could start shipping extra cargoes to Japan almost immediately. It could also divert existing LNG cargoes there from lower-paying markets.

But a big question is how much damage Japan's Pacific coast LNG terminals and gas pipelines sustained from the 8.9-magnitude earthquake and resulting tsunami that devastated the north-east coast of Honshu, the largest Japanese island.

If the damage was severe, then Japan would have to turn temporarily to dirtier fossil fuels - oil and coal - to sustain adequate power supplies.

It might also import fuel oil from South East Asian refineries and Indonesian or Australian coal.

* with agencies

aligaya@thenational.ae

tcarlisle@thenational.ae

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THE SPECS

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Name: Almnssa
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Based: Gaza
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THE BIO

Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979

Education: UAE University, Al Ain

Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6

Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma

Favourite book: Science and geology

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How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

Nepotism is the name of the game

Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad. 

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The specs: 2019 BMW X4

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How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
From Zero

Artist: Linkin Park

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Rating: 4/5

Attacks on Egypt’s long rooted Copts

Egypt’s Copts belong to one of the world’s oldest Christian communities, with Mark the Evangelist credited with founding their church around 300 AD. Orthodox Christians account for the overwhelming majority of Christians in Egypt, with the rest mainly made up of Greek Orthodox, Catholics and Anglicans.

The community accounts for some 10 per cent of Egypt’s 100 million people, with the largest concentrations of Christians found in Cairo, Alexandria and the provinces of Minya and Assiut south of Cairo.

Egypt’s Christians have had a somewhat turbulent history in the Muslim majority Arab nation, with the community occasionally suffering outright persecution but generally living in peace with their Muslim compatriots. But radical Muslims who have first emerged in the 1970s have whipped up anti-Christian sentiments, something that has, in turn, led to an upsurge in attacks against their places of worship, church-linked facilities as well as their businesses and homes.

More recently, ISIS has vowed to go after the Christians, claiming responsibility for a series of attacks against churches packed with worshippers starting December 2016.

The discrimination many Christians complain about and the shift towards religious conservatism by many Egyptian Muslims over the last 50 years have forced hundreds of thousands of Christians to migrate, starting new lives in growing communities in places as far afield as Australia, Canada and the United States.

Here is a look at major attacks against Egypt's Coptic Christians in recent years:

November 2: Masked gunmen riding pickup trucks opened fire on three buses carrying pilgrims to the remote desert monastery of St. Samuel the Confessor south of Cairo, killing 7 and wounding about 20. IS claimed responsibility for the attack.

May 26, 2017: Masked militants riding in three all-terrain cars open fire on a bus carrying pilgrims on their way to the Monastery of St. Samuel the Confessor, killing 29 and wounding 22. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.

April 2017Twin attacks by suicide bombers hit churches in the coastal city of Alexandria and the Nile Delta city of Tanta. At least 43 people are killed and scores of worshippers injured in the Palm Sunday attack, which narrowly missed a ceremony presided over by Pope Tawadros II, spiritual leader of Egypt Orthodox Copts, in Alexandria's St. Mark's Cathedral. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks.

February 2017: Hundreds of Egyptian Christians flee their homes in the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula, fearing attacks by ISIS. The group's North Sinai affiliate had killed at least seven Coptic Christians in the restive peninsula in less than a month.

December 2016A bombing at a chapel adjacent to Egypt's main Coptic Christian cathedral in Cairo kills 30 people and wounds dozens during Sunday Mass in one of the deadliest attacks carried out against the religious minority in recent memory. ISIS claimed responsibility.

July 2016Pope Tawadros II says that since 2013 there were 37 sectarian attacks on Christians in Egypt, nearly one incident a month. A Muslim mob stabs to death a 27-year-old Coptic Christian man, Fam Khalaf, in the central city of Minya over a personal feud.

May 2016: A Muslim mob ransacks and torches seven Christian homes in Minya after rumours spread that a Christian man had an affair with a Muslim woman. The elderly mother of the Christian man was stripped naked and dragged through a street by the mob.

New Year's Eve 2011A bomb explodes in a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria as worshippers leave after a midnight mass, killing more than 20 people.

The biog

Name: James Mullan

Nationality: Irish

Family: Wife, Pom; and daughters Kate, 18, and Ciara, 13, who attend Jumeirah English Speaking School (JESS)

Favourite book or author: “That’s a really difficult question. I’m a big fan of Donna Tartt, The Secret History. I’d recommend that, go and have a read of that.”

Dream: “It would be to continue to have fun and to work with really interesting people, which I have been very fortunate to do for a lot of my life. I just enjoy working with very smart, fun people.”