In the days after Japan's March 11 earthquake and tsunami, regular advertisements disappeared from television screens and were replaced with a repetitive cycle of messages urging the nation's citizens to show consideration to each other, hug their kids and refrain from buying stuff they didn't need, as the scale of the disaster became clear.
Paying for the ads was Japan's Advertising Council, a body funded by corporations, advertising agencies and broadcasters. At its head is Nobutada Saji, the patriarch of the family that owns the beverage maker Suntory.
Yet while being nice to your neighbour is sound advice, by urging consumers to forgo non-essentials or little luxuries, some of which the group's members make, the band of well-meaning businesses may have done more harm than good.
The estimated US$300 billion (Dh1.1 trillion) it will cost Japan to recover from the devastating tremor far exceeds that put aside after the 2003 South East Asian tsunami or what is being paid to fix the destruction in New Orleans and its suburbs by Hurricane Katrina two years later. And being a rich, developed nation means the Japanese are going to have to find nearly all the cash themselves.
Having a nation of vibrant shoppers would make that hunt an easier job than in an economy with people holed up at home, going out only to stock up on bread, rice and water.
In the month and a half since Japan's quake, a degree of normality has been restored. Store shelves are no longer half-empty, and in Tokyo people seem to be back in restaurants and bars.
Even the foreigners who fled as Tokyo Electric Power's crippled nuclear plant began spewing radiation are returning. The nuclear crisis may continue for many more months, but anxiety levels are easing. The chill on consumer spending, however, seems to have taken hold.
Hardest hit are the luxury shops struggling to lure consumers, who are preoccupied with searching out the basics.
J Front Retailing, the Japanese department store operator that operates Daimaru and Matsuzakaya outlets, told investors this month that it expected its operating profit to shrink by a third this business year. Its rival Takashimaya, popular among foreign tourists, predicted a 12 per cent contraction.
A recent series of retailer earnings reports have also highlighted a shift in consumer habits since the disaster last month, which has claimed up to 30,000 lives.
Recession-minded shoppers, it seems, are lowering their sights to cheaper wares, while stocking up on everyday basics continues. It means that the big general merchandisers, led by Seven & I Holdings, which operates some 13,000 7-Eleven convenience stores in Japan, are feeling the pain less.
The giant Japanese retailer expects its earnings to nudge up, albeit at a much slower pace than the previous year. One winner may be Fast Retailing, the owner of the Uniqlo chain, Japan's leading retailer of casual clothing, which is often likened to Gap of the US.
When recession hits Japan, which over the past two decades has been often, Fast Retailing does well. Its performance after the Lehman Brothers shock in 2008 made its founder, Tadashi Yanai, Japan's richest man for two years in 2009 and last year, according to Forbes magazine.
How long and deep Japan's post-quake recession will be is as yet unclear. But Bank of Japan officials fear the current quarter will herald a severe contraction in business, suggesting the country will be releasing some ugly economic data a few months from now. And because consumers account for about a half of GDP, their unwillingness to spend is likely to be a big factor behind that big squeeze.
It might please Mr Yanai, but it is bad news for a government already wallowing in the industrialised world's highest national debt, at about twice GDP.
Less revenue from a squeeze on sales at cash registers, lower household income and a drop in corporate tax means it will have to borrow even more to rebuild its north-east prefectures. In turn, that will make state finances even shakier and provide the seed of a financial meltdown that could a few years later rip through global money markets if Japan defaulted.
So the sooner companies stop fretting about the moral fibre of their battered nation and get back to enticing its citizens to spend their wages on the things they can do without, the better for Japan, its economy and the long road of reconstruction it has just embarked upon.
business@thenational.ae
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
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- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km
Price: from Dh94,900
On sale: now
'Skin'
Dir: Guy Nattiv
Starring: Jamie Bell, Danielle McDonald, Bill Camp, Vera Farmiga
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
SCORES IN BRIEF
Lahore Qalandars 186 for 4 in 19.4 overs
(Sohail 100,Phil Salt 37 not out, Bilal Irshad 30, Josh Poysden 2-26)
bt Yorkshire Vikings 184 for 5 in 20 overs
(Jonathan Tattersall 36, Harry Brook 37, Gary Ballance 33, Adam Lyth 32, Shaheen Afridi 2-36).
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Racecard:
2.30pm: Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoun Emirates Breeders Society Challenge; Conditions (PA); Dh40,000; 1,600m
3pm: Handicap; Dh80,000; 1,800m
3.30pm: Jebel Ali Mile Prep Rated Conditions; Dh110,000; 1,600m
4pm: Handicap; Dh95,000; 1,950m
4.30pm: Maiden; Dh65,000; 1,400m
5pm: Handicap; Dh85,000; 1,200m
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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Notable salonnières of the Middle East through history
Al Khasan (Okaz, Saudi Arabia)
Tamadir bint Amr Al Harith, known simply as Al Khasan, was a poet from Najd famed for elegies, earning great renown for the eulogy of her brothers Mu’awiyah and Sakhr, both killed in tribal wars. Although not a salonnière, this prestigious 7th century poet fostered a culture of literary criticism and could be found standing in the souq of Okaz and reciting her poetry, publicly pronouncing her views and inviting others to join in the debate on scholarship. She later converted to Islam.
Maryana Marrash (Aleppo)
A poet and writer, Marrash helped revive the tradition of the salon and was an active part of the Nadha movement, or Arab Renaissance. Born to an established family in Aleppo in Ottoman Syria in 1848, Marrash was educated at missionary schools in Aleppo and Beirut at a time when many women did not receive an education. After touring Europe, she began to host salons where writers played chess and cards, competed in the art of poetry, and discussed literature and politics. An accomplished singer and canon player, music and dancing were a part of these evenings.
Princess Nazil Fadil (Cairo)
Princess Nazil Fadil gathered religious, literary and political elite together at her Cairo palace, although she stopped short of inviting women. The princess, a niece of Khedive Ismail, believed that Egypt’s situation could only be solved through education and she donated her own property to help fund the first modern Egyptian University in Cairo.
Mayy Ziyadah (Cairo)
Ziyadah was the first to entertain both men and women at her Cairo salon, founded in 1913. The writer, poet, public speaker and critic, her writing explored language, religious identity, language, nationalism and hierarchy. Born in Nazareth, Palestine, to a Lebanese father and Palestinian mother, her salon was open to different social classes and earned comparisons with souq of where Al Khansa herself once recited.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
'Falling%20for%20Christmas'
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Honeymoonish
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Ultra processed foods
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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