The US dollar slipped to ¥84.71 on August 11 after the Federal Reserve said the US recovery may slow. The Fed then pumped funds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into treasuries.
Investors baulked at lower yields and drove down the dollar as they switched to yen-denominated debt.
Efforts by Japanese officials nudged the greenback above ¥85, but that was still well below average predicted exchange rates of ¥90.18 for large manufacturing enterprises seen in the June survey of business sentiment from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
More than 80 per cent of Japanese jobs are provided by small and medium-sized enterprises - many of which do not invest in offshore plant, and do not have the know-how to avoid the impact of the firm yen at home - and dollar back-ups to ¥84.89 last Thursday highlighted their precarious position.
Major manufacturers, meanwhile, have moved production capability offshore and the outlook may not be as bleak as last time around. Processors, including major car makers, now produce 25 per cent of all goods outside Japan.
Further economic stagnation may see the dollar slide to ¥82. Lows of about ¥79.75 were seen in April 1995, and a return to those levels would probably cut Japanese economic growth to less than 1 per cent in the year from next April 1.
The yen is unlikely to get any help from the Japanese authorities who have not intervened since March 2004, and given that a softer dollar is beneficial to US exports there is little reason for the Fed to join any action that would raise the cost of US goods to overseas buyers.
The Japanese government is hoping to persuade the BoJ to use lower interest rates to drive down the value of the yen.
But the central bank made no move at its monetary policy meetings on August 10 and Masaaki Shirakawa, its governor, has repeatedly said he would not use interest rate policy as a foreign-exchange tool.
The independence of the central bank is enshrined in law but its actions sometimes appear to suggest otherwise.
December 1 last year saw the BoJ hold an unscheduled policy meeting where it introduced an entirely new funding operation designed to drive down long-term rates in response to the firming yen.
The next day, Mr Shirakawa met the then prime minister Yukio Hatoyama to "discuss" the economic situation. Not many people were fooled but Mr Shirakawa was left in a position where he could claim not to have succumbed to political pressure.
According to the chief cabinet secretary, the current prime minister Naoto Kan spoke with the BoJ governor by phone for 15 minutes yesterday. The sense of urgency to act is far less apparent than in December last year, and despite pressure on the BoJ to guide borrowing rates lower the central bank is now expected to wait until the next policy meeting in September before deciding on any move.
Let's not forget it was Mr Kan who decided to talk about higher consumption taxes in the election campaign that last month cost the Democratic Party of Japan its majority in the upper house.
The prime minister is now fighting to keep his party leadership with polls likely next month, and until then his ability to execute policy remains diminished.
By agreeing to talk, Mr Shirakawa did Mr Kan a favour by helping to maintain the impression that the prime minister remains in control.
Needless to say, as the fifth Japanese prime minister in less than five years, Mr Kan is probably better advised to get his political house in order before putting more heat on the BoJ governor.
business@thenational.ae
What is Diwali?
The Hindu festival is at once a celebration of the autumn harvest and the triumph of good over evil, as outlined in the Ramayana.
According to the Sanskrit epic, penned by the sage Valmiki, Diwali marks the time that the exiled king Rama – a mortal with superhuman powers – returned home to the city of Ayodhya with his wife Sita and brother Lakshman, after vanquishing the 10-headed demon Ravana and conquering his kingdom of Lanka. The people of Ayodhya are believed to have lit thousands of earthen lamps to illuminate the city and to guide the royal family home.
In its current iteration, Diwali is celebrated with a puja to welcome the goodness of prosperity Lakshmi (an incarnation of Sita) into the home, which is decorated with diyas (oil lamps) or fairy lights and rangoli designs with coloured powder. Fireworks light up the sky in some parts of the word, and sweetmeats are made (or bought) by most households. It is customary to get new clothes stitched, and visit friends and family to exchange gifts and greetings.
Abu Dhabi traffic facts
Drivers in Abu Dhabi spend 10 per cent longer in congested conditions than they would on a free-flowing road
The highest volume of traffic on the roads is found between 7am and 8am on a Sunday.
Travelling before 7am on a Sunday could save up to four hours per year on a 30-minute commute.
The day was the least congestion in Abu Dhabi in 2019 was Tuesday, August 13.
The highest levels of traffic were found on Sunday, November 10.
Drivers in Abu Dhabi lost 41 hours spent in traffic jams in rush hour during 2019
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The Case For Trump
By Victor Davis Hanson
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The Florida Project
Director: Sean Baker
Starring: Bria Vinaite, Brooklynn Prince, Willem Dafoe
Four stars
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Abu Dhabi GP schedule
Friday: First practice - 1pm; Second practice - 5pm
Saturday: Final practice - 2pm; Qualifying - 5pm
Sunday: Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps) - 5.10pm
The specs
Engine: 1.4-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 180hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 250Nm at 3,00rpm
Transmission: 5-speed sequential auto
Price: From Dh139,995
On sale: now
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Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
if you go
Getting there
Etihad (Etihad.com), Emirates (emirates.com) and Air France (www.airfrance.com) fly to Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport, from Abu Dhabi and Dubai respectively. Return flights cost from around Dh3,785. It takes about 40 minutes to get from Paris to Compiègne by train, with return tickets costing €19. The Glade of the Armistice is 6.6km east of the railway station.
Staying there
On a handsome, tree-lined street near the Chateau’s park, La Parenthèse du Rond Royal (laparenthesedurondroyal.com) offers spacious b&b accommodation with thoughtful design touches. Lots of natural woods, old fashioned travelling trunks as decoration and multi-nozzle showers are part of the look, while there are free bikes for those who want to cycle to the glade. Prices start at €120 a night.
More information: musee-armistice-14-18.fr ; compiegne-tourisme.fr; uk.france.fr
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden | Dh80,000 | 1,600m
Winner: AF Al Moreeb, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap | Dh80,000 | 1,600m
Winner: AF Makerah, Adrie de Vries, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Handicap | Dh80,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Hazeme, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle
6.30pm: Handicap | Dh85,000 | 2,200m
Winner: AF Yatroq, Brett Doyle, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Shadwell Farm for Private Owners Handicap | Dh70,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Nawwaf KB, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) | Dh100,000 | 1,600m
Winner: Treasured Times, Bernardo Pinheiro, Rashed Bouresly
