Soaring Treasury yields have stunned the US equity market in recent weeks, with some of the heaviest fallout hitting a group of stocks expected to have bond-like qualities.
The S&P 500 is down about 4 per cent since the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate projections last month sent US yields to 16-year peaks and accelerated an equities pullback from highs reached in late July.
While rising yields are generally regarded as unfavourable to growth stocks, some of the steepest losses have been concentrated in more staid sectors such as utilities and consumer staples.
Such areas are often referred to as “bond proxies” for their strong, stable dividends, which over the past decade have usually exceeded Treasury yields. Those hefty payouts, as well as businesses perceived to be more durable during a rocky economy, led many investors to view them as a safe harbour when markets became turbulent.
But surging bond yields have dulled the appeal of bond proxies. Investors can now earn higher yields on government debt seen as virtually risk free if held to term. The yield on a six-month Treasury now stands at around 5.6 per cent, while the utilities sector was yielding 4 per cent and staples yielded 3 per cent, according to LSEG data.
As a result, shares of bond proxies have taken an outsize hit in recent weeks. The S&P 500 utilities sector has tumbled 13 per cent since last month’s Fed meeting. Staples has dropped about 8 per cent in that time, with investors also assessing the impact on consumer companies from a new class of weight-loss drugs.
Other areas known for their dividend appeal have also suffered, with real estate off 8 per cent since the Fed's meeting, and telecom stocks AT&T and Verizon dropping 7 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.
Investors have scrambled to recalibrate their portfolios following the Fed's outlook suggesting rates will stay higher for longer, which has also strengthened the dollar and sent gold sliding.
The underperformance of bond proxies shows “the market is finally buying that we are in a completely different interest rate regime,” said Irene Tunkel, chief US equity strategist at BCA Research.
Bond proxies were underperforming after Friday's US employment report showed jobs growth surging above expectations and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury shot up over 4.8 per cent. Next Thursday's consumer price index report will be critical for investors assessing whether the Fed will seek to raise rates further to fight inflation.
Next week also kicks off third-quarter earnings results for US companies, with several major banks reporting. The earnings season could determine the near-term path for stocks, with the S&P 500 still logging a 10 per cent gain for the year even after its pullback.
The utilities sector's steep slide has put the group in particular investor focus. Problems have been compounded by the share plunge for the sector's biggest company by market value, Nextera Energy. Nextera shares have tumbled 27 per cent since the end of last month, when a subsidiary, Nextera Energy Partners, cut its growth outlook.
Earnings may not provide much relief for utilities. While the sector is expected to see stronger growth than the overall S&P 500 in the third and fourth quarters, its projected 8.6 per cent increase in 2024 lags the expected 12 per cent rise for the overall S&P 500, according to LSEG.
Weakness in utilities shares spells opportunity for some investors. The Philadelphia SE Utilities index indicates the group trading at its lowest relative valuation to the S&P 500 since 2010, excluding the initial coronavirus period in 2020, analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets said in a note this week, adding “we now view the sector overall as attractively valued”.
Retail investors poured $32 million into utilities shares, far more than any other prior five-day stretch, according to weekly data from VandaTrack, which follows retail activity.
Whether the stocks are worth scooping up could depend on an investor's outlook for interest rates, said James Ragan, director of wealth management research at DA Davidson.
“If you think that the 10-year yield is going to go to 5 per cent and keep running a bit, then I don’t think the utilities are going to do very well,” he said.
Sukuk
An Islamic bond structured in a way to generate returns without violating Sharia strictures on prohibition of interest.
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Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster with a decades-long career in TV. He has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others. Karam is also the founder of Takreem.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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Porsche Macan T: The Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 265hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,800-4,500rpm
Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto
Speed: 0-100kph in 6.2sec
Top speed: 232kph
Fuel consumption: 10.7L/100km
On sale: May or June
Price: From Dh259,900
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Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
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Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
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The Matrix Resurrections
Director: Lana Wachowski
Stars: Keanu Reeves, Carrie-Anne Moss, Jessica Henwick
Rating:****
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The 12 breakaway clubs
England
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur
Italy
AC Milan, Inter Milan, Juventus
Spain
Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid
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Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
WHAT IS GRAPHENE?
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were experimenting with sticky tape and graphite, the material used as lead in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But when they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics.
The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler
Price, base / as tested Dh57,000
Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm
Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.5-litre supercharged V6
Power: 416hp at 7,000rpm
Torque: 410Nm at 3,500rpm
Transmission: 6-speed manual
Fuel consumption: 10.2 l/100km
Price: Dh375,000
On sale: now
MATCH INFO
Quarter-finals
Saturday (all times UAE)
England v Australia, 11.15am
New Zealand v Ireland, 2.15pm
Sunday
Wales v France, 11.15am
Japan v South Africa, 2.15pm
hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
2020 Oscars winners: in numbers
- Parasite – 4
- 1917– 3
- Ford v Ferrari – 2
- Joker – 2
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Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
Penguin Press
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Tips for newlyweds to better manage finances
All couples are unique and have to create a financial blueprint that is most suitable for their relationship, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial. He offers his top five tips for couples to better manage their finances.
Discuss your assets and debts: When married, it’s important to understand each other’s personal financial situation. It’s necessary to know upfront what each party brings to the table, as debts and assets affect spending habits and joint loan qualifications. Discussing all aspects of their finances as a couple prevents anyone from being blindsided later.
Decide on the financial/saving goals: Spouses should independently list their top goals and share their lists with one another to shape a joint plan. Writing down clear goals will help them determine how much to save each month, how much to put aside for short-term goals, and how they will reach their long-term financial goals.
Set a budget: A budget can keep the couple be mindful of their income and expenses. With a monthly budget, couples will know exactly how much they can spend in a category each month, how much they have to work with and what spending areas need to be evaluated.
Decide who manages what: When it comes to handling finances, it’s a good idea to decide who manages what. For example, one person might take on the day-to-day bills, while the other tackles long-term investments and retirement plans.
Money date nights: Talking about money should be a healthy, ongoing conversation and couples should not wait for something to go wrong. They should set time aside every month to talk about future financial decisions and see the progress they’ve made together towards accomplishing their goals.
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63 - Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA)
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66 - Jon Rahm (ESP)
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68 - Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)
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Hurricanes 31-31 Lions
Wellington Hurricanes:
Tries: Gibbins, Laumape, Goosen, Fifita tries, Barrett
Conversions: Barrett (4)
Penalties: Barrett
British & Irish Lions:
Tries: Seymour (2), North
Conversions: Biggar (2)
Penalties: Biggar (4)
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
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It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
