“Bull markets don’t die of old age” is a piece of trader wisdom trotted out to justify hanging out in stocks in a bid to try and squeeze out the last of any potential gains in a cycle. But as market lore goes, this piece of advice may now be injurious to your financial wealth.
It’s true that buying on any dips as a strategy in recent years has stood investors well. The combination of central bank quantitative easing and low bond yields has forced investors to take on more equity market risk in the hope of improving returns.
The old market trope suggests bull markets instead die of excess - too much hubris, and too much leverage. But there is one more reason: policy mistakes. Whether it is the Federal Reserve lifting rates too quickly or President Donald Trump igniting a trade war spark that turns into a brushfire, policy risk hovers on the edge of investors’ peripheral vision like a bad tempered wasp at a picnic.
There are clearly still arguments in support of equity markets. Namely, strong earnings and a moderation in share prices since the start of the year that has improved the valuation picture.
Nandini Ramakrishnan, global market strategist at JP Morgan, is still positive. “In the second half of the year, we expect some reacceleration of growth outside the US as … employment growth and cheap credit… reassert themselves,” she says. “We expect modest gains in equity prices by year-end as government bond price drift lower.” The team at JP Morgan still sees improvements in productivity emerging in the US that will underpin markets there.
But, the escalator of fear around a tit-for-tat trade war and rising interest rates is beginning to unnerve investors.
Ralph Jainz, who manages money at Centricus Asset Management, says: “Central bank support is starting to fade, even as the global demand environment is deteriorating.” He thinks investors need to start positioning themselves for a market that is rolling over: “We would expect a full-blown trade war in European equities to start in in the first half of 2019 at the latest.”
_______
Read more:
The US dollar is in a rampant mood but for how long?
Markets take 'catalogue of risks' in their stride
A stronger dollar and firmer oil prices threaten capital flows to emerging markets
Abu Dhabi's Dh50bn stimulus will boost economic growth, property market
________
As for the argument that bull markets die in euphoria, Mr Jainz said it was a question of looking in the right place: tech stocks. “Technology is undoubtedly in a bubble, and overheating phase. That is clear from looking at the gap between growth (eg tech) stocks and value (eg banks) which is at its highest since the first quarter of 2000.”
For some, the markets are already involved in a long drawn-out topping process.
Stewart Richardson, chief investment officer at RMG Investment Management, says this growth cycle is getting old. “This cycle is similar to other cycles, in that previous loose policies encouraged new debt that will eventually prove not to be serviceable and will have to be written down,” he says. “The build-up in corporate debt in particular … is of concern.”
While Mr Richardson acknowledges there may be further upside for equities because of the strength of the US economy, markets are living on borrowed time. “Equity markets have struggled to make progress in recent months. What’s important to try and understand (assuming we are late cycle), is that we are dealing now with a sequence of outcomes that will lead to increasingly less good and then bad outcomes,” he says.
The bears have not had an easy time in this phase of the markets. February’s volatility melted away, once again encouraging the bulls to increase their weightings in risk assets.
But potential triggers for renewed weakness abound: debt levels, margin pressures, valuations, interest rates etc, choose your excuse. But ultimately, confidence is key, and investor and business confidence appears increasingly dented by the risk of mistakes on trade and monetary policy. And that explains why the bears have woken up again.
Geoff Cutmore is co-anchor of Squawk Box, CNBC’s flagship show in Europe
The National and CNBC International are global content sharing partners.
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
2024%20Dubai%20Marathon%20Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWomen%E2%80%99s%20race%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Tigist%20Ketema%20(ETH)%202hrs%2016min%207sec%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Ruti%20Aga%20(ETH)%202%3A18%3A09%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Dera%20Dida%20(ETH)%202%3A19%3A29%0D%3Cbr%3EMen's%20race%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Addisu%20Gobena%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A01%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lemi%20Dumicha%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A20%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20DejeneMegersa%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A42%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
HOW TO WATCH
Facebook: TheNationalNews
Twitter: @thenationalnews
Instagram: @thenationalnews.com
TikTok: @thenationalnews
A little about CVRL
Founded in 1985 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, the Central Veterinary Research Laboratory (CVRL) is a government diagnostic centre that provides testing and research facilities to the UAE and neighbouring countries.
One of its main goals is to provide permanent treatment solutions for veterinary related diseases.
The taxidermy centre was established 12 years ago and is headed by Dr Ulrich Wernery.
The biog
From: Ras Al Khaimah
Age: 50
Profession: Electronic engineer, worked with Etisalat for the past 20 years
Hobbies: 'Anything that involves exploration, hunting, fishing, mountaineering, the sea, hiking, scuba diving, and adventure sports'
Favourite quote: 'Life is so simple, enjoy it'
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
