The expected inclusion of Saudi Arabia in MSCI’s emerging market index could boost foreign stock ownership to above 10 per cent of market capitalisation and drive inflows of upto $40 billion by end-2019, analysts said.
“If Saudi follows frontier and emerging market peers then the amount of the market owned by foreigners could, over a few years, rise to about 10 per cent,” said Hasnain Malik, managing director of equity strategy at emerging market-focused investment bank Exotix Capital.
Foreign ownership, which currently is less than 2 per cent, could rise to upto 12 per cent by the end of 2019, said Mohamad Al Hajj, vice-president and head of Mena equity strategy at lender EFG Hermes.
Index compiler MSCI is to announce whether or not it will grant Saudi Arabia emerging market status on Wednesday, after the kingdom was put on a watchlist for inclusion last year.
The MSCI promotion would follow a similar move by FTSE Russell in March and be a second achievement for the kingdom, which has been implementing a series of reforms to develop its capital markets in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification strategy.
MSCI EM status would help the country attract billions of dollars into the Middle East and North Africa’s biggest stock exchange, which has a market capitalisation of about $500bn.
“The FTSE Russell decision in March was an important achievement for the kingdom, but it is the MSCI upgrade that will truly help catalyse its Vision 2030 efforts,” said Salah Shamma, head of Mena Investment at Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity.
“Since MSCI added it to its watch list in June 2017, the necessary infrastructure has been upgraded and we believe all required criteria have been met.”
The decision would “ultimately help transform the kingdom into one of the largest and most attractive emerging markets in the world,” he added.
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Read more:
Saudi Arabia set to win MSCI emerging market status in June, says EFG Hermes
FTSE upgrades Saudi Arabia to emerging market status
Saudi Arabia expected to be included in FTSE Russell EM Index
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Investment manager Franklin Templeton estimates the kingdom’s inclusion in the MSCI EM index would bring additional flows of around $35bn into the market. Around $3bn in foreign flows have already come into the Saudi market in 2018, taking total foreign investment in the Tadawul stock exchange to approximately $9bn. The potential listing of a five per cent stake in Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil producer, would add another $50bn in foreign flows depending on valuation, Franklin Templeton said.
Mr Al Hajj said he expected additional inflows of between $30bn-$45bn into Saudi Arabia by the end of 2019 as a result of the anticipated upgrade. His estimate does not include the impact of an Aramco listing. “From this year, stronger US dollar and rising US rates could continue to attract buyers, especially for Saudi banks,” he said.
Meanwhile, Rami Sidani, head of Mena investments at Schroders Investment Management, estimated additional inflows of $20bn by the middle of next year if Saudi Arabia is included in the index. “Market performance has been very strong since the beginning of 2018, and, with MSCI inclusion along with an improving Saudi economy, we expect the market to outperform other emerging markets,” Mr Sidani said. MSCI EM status would be “game changing” not just for the kingdom but the entire region, he added, positioning it as a centre for foreign capital.
Saudi Arabia's Tadawul stock exchange is up by about 15 per cent year-to-date on anticipation of inclusion in the emerging markets benchmarks.
“Higher oil prices, continuing evidence of positive economic reform, foreign inflows and insulation from the currency concerns buffeting other emerging markets should all drive the Saudi equity market higher this year,” added Mr Malik.
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
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Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Thanksgiving meals to try
World Cut Steakhouse, Habtoor Palace Hotel, Dubai. On Thursday evening, head chef Diego Solis will be serving a high-end sounding four-course meal that features chestnut veloute with smoked duck breast, turkey roulade accompanied by winter vegetables and foie gras and pecan pie, cranberry compote and popcorn ice cream.
Jones the Grocer, various locations across the UAE. Jones’s take-home holiday menu delivers on the favourites: whole roast turkeys, an array of accompaniments (duck fat roast potatoes, sausages wrapped in beef bacon, honey-glazed parsnips and carrots) and more, as well as festive food platters, canapes and both apple and pumpkin pies.
Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, The Address Hotel, Dubai. This New Orleans-style restaurant is keen to take the stress out of entertaining, so until December 25 you can order a full seasonal meal from its Takeaway Turkey Feast menu, which features turkey, homemade gravy and a selection of sides – think green beans with almond flakes, roasted Brussels sprouts, sweet potato casserole and bread stuffing – to pick up and eat at home.
The Mattar Farm Kitchen, Dubai. From now until Christmas, Hattem Mattar and his team will be producing game- changing smoked turkeys that you can enjoy at home over the festive period.
Nolu’s, The Galleria Mall, Maryah Island Abu Dhabi. With much of the menu focused on a California inspired “farm to table” approach (with Afghani influence), it only seems right that Nolu’s will be serving their take on the Thanksgiving spread, with a brunch at the Downtown location from 12pm to 4pm on Friday.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder MHEV
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The specs: 2018 Maserati Levante S
Price, base / as tested: Dh409,000 / Dh467,000
Engine: 3.0-litre V6
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 430hp @ 5,750rpm
Torque: 580Nm @ 4,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 10.9L / 100km
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
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SPECS
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
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China and the UAE agree comprehensive strategic partnership
China and the UAE forged even closer links between the two countries during the landmark state visit after finalising a ten-point agreement on a range of issues, from international affairs to the economy and trade and renewable energy.
1. Politics: The two countries agreed to support each other on issues of security and to work together on regional and international challenges. The nations also confirmed that the number of high-level state visits between China and the UAE will increase.
2. Economy: The UAE offers its full support to China's Belt and Road Initiative, which will combine a land 'economic belt" and a "maritime silk road" that will link China with the Arabian Gulf as well as Southeast, South and Central China, North Africa and, eventually, Europe.
3. Business and innovation: The two nations are committed to exploring new partnerships in sectors such as Artificial Intelligence, energy, the aviation and transport industries and have vowed to build economic co-operation through the UAE-China Business Committee.
4. Education, science and technology: The Partnership Programme between Arab countries in Science and Technology will encourage young Emirati scientists to conduct research in China, while the nations will work together on the peaceful use of nuclear energy, renewable energy and space projects.
5. Renewable energy and water: The two countries will partner to develop renewable energy schemes and work to reduce climate change. The nations have also reiterated their support for the Abu Dhabi-based International Renewable Energy Agency.
6. Oil and gas: The UAE and China will work in partnership in the crude oil trade and the exploration and development of oil and natural gas resources.
7. Military and law enforcement and security fields: Joint training will take place between the Chinese and UAE armed forces, while the two nations will step up efforts to combat terrorism and organised crime.
8. Culture and humanitarian issues: Joint cultural projects will be developed and partnerships will be cultivated on the preservation of heritage, contemporary art and tourism.
9. Movement between countries: China and the UAE made clear their intent to encourage travel between the countries through a wide-ranging visa waiver agreement.
10. Implementing the strategic partnership: The Intergovernmental Co-operation Committee, established last year, will be used to ensure the objectives of the partnership are implemented.
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Three ways to limit your social media use
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
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