“Never let a good crisis go to waste,” Winston Churchill once said — and many international investors may be wondering if they should heed the late wartime prime minister's words and take advantage of the financial crisis that threatens to engulf the UK.
The country is in an economic mess. Worse, it is largely self-inflicted, as new Prime Minister Liz Truss makes a misguided start to her tenure.
On September 23, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng stood up to deliver a mini-budget aimed at driving the country's economy back to its long-term trend growth rate of 2.5 per cent a year.
Instead, he plunged it into chaos, destroying investor confidence, crushing the pound and almost triggering a pensions meltdown.
While Mr Kwarteng on Monday bowed to widespread pressure and scrapped the plan to abolish the 45 pence income tax rate for high earners, the mini-budget remains a nightmare for Britons and could end 12 years of Conservative rule. But is it also a buying opportunity for overseas investors?
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Watch: UK Prime Minister Liz Truss defends economic plan
Suddenly, UK assets are going cheap. Stock markets are down, bond prices are tumbling and Credit Suisse reckons property prices could fall by 10 per cent to 15 per cent. For those with US dollars, UK assets are already more than 20 per cent cheaper, in currency terms as the greenback soars.
So what’s gone wrong and how bad — or good, depending on your perspective — can things get?
Mr Kwarteng's “fiscal event”, as he labelled it, was a masterpiece of bad timing.
Ms Truss had just announced an energy bills support package that could cost a staggering £150 billion ($168.1bn), which will be added to the nation's debt rather than funded by a windfall tax on oil and gas companies.
The last thing international investors needed to hear was that the UK was going to borrow another £72bn to fund tax cuts for the super-rich.
Allowing bankers to pay themselves bigger bonuses and initially scrapping 45 per cent income tax band was never going to be popular. But to launch it at a time when millions are facing the choice between eating and heating their homes was a fiasco.
The Tories are plunging in the polls, but the real threat comes as international investors vote with their feet.
The UK is unusual as it relies on overseas buyers to finance almost half of its government debt, to the tune of about £70bn a year. Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney once called it “relying on the kindness of strangers”.
Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng have abused that kindness, with foreigners reluctant to buy government debt from a country whose leaders appeared to have lost all fiscal sense.
Last Wednesday, yields on 30-year UK government bonds, known as gilts, soared from 3.6 per cent to almost 5.2 per cent as investors demanded a higher return. One year ago, 30-year gilts yielded just 1.33 per cent.
When bond yields rise, bond prices fall. This almost smashed the nation’s £1.5 trillion workplace pensions system, as trustees found their bond holdings no longer matched their liabilities and had to sell them in a panic to raise cash.
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Cost of living crisis in the UK — in pictures
BoE governor Andrew Bailey stepped into prevent ruinous financial contagion with a pledge to buy £65bn of his own gilts.
The central bank's intervention has given embattled buyers a reason to step back into the market, says Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG. “This might mark the low for now in risk assets.”
The pound has recovered slightly. After threatening to fall to parity with the US dollar, it has crept above $1.11. Gilt yields are below 4 per cent.
An uneasy peace holds but after the recent wave of selling, there’s hope for a bounce in the short-term, Mr Beauchamp says.
However, “this doesn’t change the bleaker medium-term view”, he adds.
Perhaps surprisingly, London’s benchmark FTSE 100 index has not done that badly this year, falling “just” 7.56 per cent. That is dwarfed by the 24.1 per cent drop on the US S&P 500.
The FTSE 100 is packed with banking, energy, consumer staples and healthcare stocks that hold up well in times of weak growth and high inflation, says Jason Hollands, managing director of Bestinvest.
“It has low exposure to growth sectors like technology, communications and consumer discretionary businesses, which have sold off this year,” Mr Hollands says.
Companies listed on the index generate three quarters of their earnings overseas, so actually benefit from a weaker pound, as this boosts the value of those revenues once converted back into a weaker sterling.
The FTSE 100 also offers attractive dividends, currently yielding 4.1 per cent a year against 1.69 per cent on the S&P 500. It is much cheaper than the US, trading at 14 times earnings against around 27 times.
Nobody expects the FTSE 100 to take off like a rocket but it does have its attractions, says Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor. “It offers steady growth and income prospects for long-term investors.”
As with all UK assets, it is also cheaper for dollar buyers, as the pound has fallen an incredible 21.11 per cent against the greenback.
Sterling is not the only currency on the rack. The euro is down 15.74 per cent against the dollar year-to-date, while the Japanese yen has fallen 25.43 per cent against the greenback.
If you earn dollars or dollar-pegged currencies such as the UAE dirham, everywhere is cheap at the moment.
A more exciting question is whether now is the time to buy UK property.
The UK property market has been astonishingly resilient, with prices rising another 11.5 per cent in the 12 months to August despite this year’s woes.
That may change as the mortgage market is in disarray. When gilt yields rocketed, lenders pulled more than 3,000 fixed-rate deals, which were suddenly impossible to price.
Markets expect the BoE to hike base lending rates from today’s 2.25 per cent to 6 per cent, to save the pound and curb inflation.
That would add £7,500 a year to the cost of servicing a £200,000 variable rate mortgage, at a time when millions are struggling to financially cover food and fuel costs. Many will be forced to sell their homes, but could find buyers in short supply.
As mortgage rates rocket and choice shrinks, the market is under pressure, says Tomer Aboody, director of property finance lender MT Finance. “We are seeing a shift in sentiment and the move to a buyers’ market. Sellers no longer call the shots.”
Prime properties, especially within the London area, should sustain values as foreign buyers take advantage of the weaker pound
Tomer Aboody,
director of property finance lender MT Finance
Buying UK property is also slightly cheaper, as Mr Kwarteng cut stamp duty in his mini-budget, saving buyers up to £2,500.
But those expecting to bag a prime bargain may be disappointed, Mr Aboody says. “Prime properties, especially within the London area, should sustain values as foreign buyers take advantage of the weaker pound.”
Anybody buying UK assets today must brace themselves for further volatility, says Joshua Raymond of currency broker XTB. “The Bank of England is applying plasters on the financial wounds created by the Truss government.”
The central bank’s £64bn intervention only lasts until October 14. If Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng have not relented by then, the crisis could intensify.
Global investors will not want to let today's crisis go to waste but nor should they rush in either.
This could have a lot further to run and if it does, buyers could find even bigger bargains in the months ahead, especially in the nation’s property market.
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RESULTS
5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Turf) 2,200m
Winner: M'A Yaromoon, Jesus Rosales (jockey), Khalifa Al Neydai (trainer)
5.30pm: Khor Al Baghal – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: No Riesgo Al Maury, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6pm: Khor Faridah – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: JAP Almahfuz, Royston Ffrench, Irfan Ellahi
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Mahmouda, Pat Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AS Jezan, George Buckell, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
7.30pm: Khor Laffam – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Dolman, Antonio Fresu, Bhupath Seemar
Henrik Stenson's finishes at Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship:
2006 - 2
2007 - 8
2008 - 2
2009 - MC
2010 - 21
2011 - 42
2012 - MC
2013 - 23
2014 - MC
2015 - MC
2016 - 3
2017 - 8
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO
Quarter-finals
Saturday (all times UAE)
England v Australia, 11.15am
New Zealand v Ireland, 2.15pm
Sunday
Wales v France, 11.15am
Japan v South Africa, 2.15pm
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELeap%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202021%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ziad%20Toqan%20and%20Jamil%20Khammu%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Undisclosed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results
57kg quarter-finals
Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Hamed Al Matari (YEM) by points 3-0.
60kg quarter-finals
Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) beat Hyan Aljmyah (SYR) RSC round 2.
63.5kg quarter-finals
Nouredine Samir (UAE) beat Shamlan A Othman (KUW) by points 3-0.
67kg quarter-finals
Mohammed Mardi (UAE) beat Ahmad Ondash (LBN) by points 2-1.
71kg quarter-finals
Ahmad Bahman (UAE) defeated Lalthasanga Lelhchhun (IND) by points 3-0.
Amine El Moatassime (UAE) beat Seyed Kaveh Safakhaneh (IRI) by points 3-0.
81kg quarter-finals
Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Ahmad Hilal (PLE) by points 3-0
Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdam%20Wingard%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBrian%20Tyree%20Henry%2C%20Rebecca%20Hall%2C%20Dan%20Stevens%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
MATCH INFO
France 3
Umtiti (8'), Griezmann (29' pen), Dembele (63')
Italy 1
Bonucci (36')
Manchester United v Club America
When: Thursday, 9pm Arizona time (Friday UAE, 8am)
At a glance
- 20,000 new jobs for Emiratis over three years
- Dh300 million set aside to train 18,000 jobseekers in new skills
- Managerial jobs in government restricted to Emiratis
- Emiratis to get priority for 160 types of job in private sector
- Portion of VAT revenues will fund more graduate programmes
- 8,000 Emirati graduates to do 6-12 month replacements in public or private sector on a Dh10,000 monthly wage - 40 per cent of which will be paid by government
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 6 (McTominay 2', 3'; Fernandes 20', 70' pen; Lindelof 37'; James 65')
Leeds United 2 (Cooper 41'; Dallas 73')
Man of the match: Scott McTominay (Manchester United)
Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Score
Third Test, Day 2
New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)
Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last 16, first leg
Liverpool v Bayern Munich, midnight (Wednesday), BeIN Sports