Traders at the New York Stock Exchange. Risk sentiment was riled in global capital markets last week after China ordered government officials to stop using iPhones. Reuters
Traders at the New York Stock Exchange. Risk sentiment was riled in global capital markets last week after China ordered government officials to stop using iPhones. Reuters
Traders at the New York Stock Exchange. Risk sentiment was riled in global capital markets last week after China ordered government officials to stop using iPhones. Reuters
Traders at the New York Stock Exchange. Risk sentiment was riled in global capital markets last week after China ordered government officials to stop using iPhones. Reuters

US-China trade ties and jobless claims to drive market sentiment


Gaurav Kashyap
  • English
  • Arabic

Since my previous column, some new themes have emerged while older ones have further solidified their influence on financial markets.

Risk sentiment was riled in global capital markets last week as fears of a bubbling US-China trade war emerged after Beijing directed government officials to stop using iPhones.

With China representing about 20 per cent of Apple’s revenue, this hit the technology company’s market capitalisation hard and its stock dropped more than 3.5 per cent to exacerbate its losses month to date at more than 5 per cent in September.

Analysts see the move as a retaliation to US-imposed restrictions on chip exports to China – introduced earlier in the year – and investors would be shrewd to keep tabs on this developing story.

Apple’s stock price decline led to a broader fall in US indexes. The S&P 500, of which Apple represents more than 7 per cent, closed below the psychological level of 4,500 – 1.29 per cent lower on the week.

Adding to the weakness in US equity markets has been a stronger-than-expected data docket.

Reverting to an older theme that has been driving sentiment – the US Federal Reserve and its expected coming actions – the host of stronger prints has shifted expectations it could introduce another rate increase during its meeting at the end of October.

ISM data, a measure of the US services sector, expanded for the eighth month in a row, while initial jobless claims – a weekly metric that highlights the number of workers who are unemployed – dropped to its lowest level in six months and represents the fourth consecutive week of lower jobless claims.

A lower initial jobless claims print suggests that the US labour market is still running hot and tight, which is a negative for the Fed and sparks the debate of further rate increases this year.

Markets are pricing in a “no-hike” scenario with 93 per cent probability at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 19 and 20, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

But the probabilities look far more interesting when looking at the Fed's meeting on October 31 and November 1.

At the time of writing, markets were split 55.3 per cent to 41.9 per cent towards the Fed keeping rates unchanged at its second-last meeting of the year (versus a 41.9 per cent probability of a rate increase).

One month ago, this split was 63.1 per cent versus 33.9 per cent. The narrowing of this ratio stokes further uncertainty in markets and, once again, US data will be key here, starting with today’s US consumer price index report.

Due at 4.30pm Dubai time on Wednesday, US CPI data is expected to show inflation jumped to 3.6 per cent year on year, up from 3.2 per cent last month.

However, this may be misleading as it factors in energy prices, which the Fed tends to neglect when analysing inflationary trends.

Therefore, pay closer attention to the core CPI print, which excludes food and energy. Year on year, core prices are expected to fall to 4.3 per cent, versus the previous month’s reading of 4.7 per cent.

A print below the 4.3 per cent threshold will, no doubt, cause risk-on moods to drive asset classes higher against the US dollar and vice versa.

I expect the print to come in line with expectations and this will result in markets continuing to trade in their current range and we will be no closer to predicting Fed action at its penultimate meeting.

US jobless claims continue to assume more importance these days – and will, once again, drive short-term pricing action through the end of the week.

So, keep tabs on whether we will get a fifth consecutive week of lower claims – a scenario that will see risk sentiment erode across the US equity segment.

Producer prices data, a measure of the change of the price of goods sold by the US manufacturing sector, and US retail sales follow on Thursday before attention turns to this month's FOMC meeting.

Gaurav Kashyap is risk manager at Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'Worse than a prison sentence'

Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.

“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.

“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.

“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.

“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.

“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”

Who's who in Yemen conflict

Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government

Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council

Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south

Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory

What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE

Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.

The biog

Age: 30

Position: Senior lab superintendent at Emirates Global Aluminium

Education: Bachelor of science in chemical engineering, post graduate degree in light metal reduction technology

Favourite part of job: The challenge, because it is challenging

Favourite quote: “Be the change you wish to see in the world,” Gandi

The biog:

Favourite book: The Leader Who Had No Title by Robin Sharma

Pet Peeve: Racism 

Proudest moment: Graduating from Sorbonne 

What puts her off: Dishonesty in all its forms

Happiest period in her life: The beginning of her 30s

Favourite movie: "I have two. The Pursuit of Happiness and Homeless to Harvard"

Role model: Everyone. A child can be my role model 

Slogan: The queen of peace, love and positive energy

CRICKET%20WORLD%20CUP%20QUALIFIER%2C%20ZIMBABWE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20fixtures%20%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMonday%2C%20June%2019%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ESri%20Lanka%20v%20UAE%2C%20Queen%E2%80%99s%20Sports%20Club%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWednesday%2C%20June%2021%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EOman%20v%20UAE%2C%20Bulawayo%20Athletic%20Club%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFriday%2C%20June%2023%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EScotland%20v%20UAE%2C%20Bulawayo%20Athletic%20Club%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ETuesday%2C%20June%2027%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIreland%20v%20UAE%2C%20Bulawayo%20Athletic%20Club%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Know your Camel lingo

The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home

Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless

Asayel camels - sleek, short-haired hound-like racers

Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s

Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival

Infiniti QX80 specs

Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6

Power: 450hp

Torque: 700Nm

Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000

Available: Now

Wicked: For Good

Director: Jon M Chu

Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater

Rating: 4/5

Pros%20and%20cons%20of%20BNPL
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPros%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEasy%20to%20use%20and%20require%20less%20rigorous%20credit%20checks%20than%20traditional%20credit%20options%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOffers%20the%20ability%20to%20spread%20the%20cost%20of%20purchases%20over%20time%2C%20often%20interest-free%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EConvenient%20and%20can%20be%20integrated%20directly%20into%20the%20checkout%20process%2C%20useful%20for%20online%20shopping%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHelps%20facilitate%20cash%20flow%20planning%20when%20used%20wisely%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECons%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20ease%20of%20making%20purchases%20can%20lead%20to%20overspending%20and%20accumulation%20of%20debt%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EMissing%20payments%20can%20result%20in%20hefty%20fees%20and%2C%20in%20some%20cases%2C%20high%20interest%20rates%20after%20an%20initial%20interest-free%20period%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EFailure%20to%20make%20payments%20can%20impact%20credit%20score%20negatively%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ERefunds%20can%20be%20complicated%20and%20delayed%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ECourtesy%3A%20Carol%20Glynn%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E680hp%20at%206%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E800Nm%20at%202%2C750-6%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERear-mounted%20eight-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E13.6L%2F100km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Orderbook%20open%3B%20deliveries%20start%20end%20of%20year%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh970%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company profile

Company name: Suraasa

Started: 2018

Founders: Rishabh Khanna, Ankit Khanna and Sahil Makker

Based: India, UAE and the UK

Industry: EdTech

Initial investment: More than $200,000 in seed funding

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGrowdash%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJuly%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESean%20Trevaskis%20and%20Enver%20Sorkun%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERestaurant%20technology%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24750%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Plus%20VC%2C%20Judah%20VC%2C%20TPN%20Investments%20and%20angel%20investors%2C%20including%20former%20Talabat%20chief%20executive%20Abdulhamid%20Alomar%2C%20and%20entrepreneur%20Zeid%20Husban%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How Alia's experiment will help humans get to Mars

Alia’s winning experiment examined how genes might change under the stresses caused by being in space, such as cosmic radiation and microgravity.

Her samples were placed in a machine on board the International Space Station. called a miniPCR thermal cycler, which can copy DNA multiple times.

After the samples were examined on return to Earth, scientists were able to successfully detect changes caused by being in space in the way DNA transmits instructions through proteins and other molecules in living organisms.

Although Alia’s samples were taken from nematode worms, the results have much bigger long term applications, especially for human space flight and long term missions, such as to Mars.

It also means that the first DNA experiments using human genomes can now be carried out on the ISS.

 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Sour%20Grapes
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EZakaria%20Tamer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESyracuse%20University%20Press%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E176%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company profile

Company: Verity

Date started: May 2021

Founders: Kamal Al-Samarrai, Dina Shoman and Omar Al Sharif

Based: Dubai

Sector: FinTech

Size: four team members

Stage: Intially bootstrapped but recently closed its first pre-seed round of $800,000

Investors: Wamda, VentureSouq, Beyond Capital and regional angel investors

The specs

Engine: 8.0-litre, quad-turbo 16-cylinder

Transmission: 7-speed auto

0-100kmh 2.3 seconds

0-200kmh 5.5 seconds

0-300kmh 11.6 seconds

Power: 1500hp

Torque: 1600Nm

Price: Dh13,400,000

On sale: now

The biog

From: Upper Egypt

Age: 78

Family: a daughter in Egypt; a son in Dubai and his wife, Nabila

Favourite Abu Dhabi activity: walking near to Emirates Palace

Favourite building in Abu Dhabi: Emirates Palace

COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20DarDoc%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Samer%20Masri%2C%20Keswin%20Suresh%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%24800%2C000%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Flat6Labs%2C%20angel%20investors%20%2B%20Incubated%20by%20Hub71%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi's%20Department%20of%20Health%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%2010%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
In numbers: China in Dubai

The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000

Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000

Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000

Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000

Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent

Tamkeen's offering
  • Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
  • Option 2: 50% across three years
  • Option 3: 30% across five years 
Sweet%20Tooth
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJim%20Mickle%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristian%20Convery%2C%20Nonso%20Anozie%2C%20Adeel%20Akhtar%2C%20Stefania%20LaVie%20Owen%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20Emperor%20and%20the%20Elephant
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Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20WallyGPT%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2014%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESaeid%20and%20Sami%20Hejazi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%247.1%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%20round%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The story in numbers

18

This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens

450,000

More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps

1.5 million

There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m

73

The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association

18,000

The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme

77,400

The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study

4,926

This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee

3%20Body%20Problem
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreators%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20David%20Benioff%2C%20D%20B%20Weiss%2C%20Alexander%20Woo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBenedict%20Wong%2C%20Jess%20Hong%2C%20Jovan%20Adepo%2C%20Eiza%20Gonzalez%2C%20John%20Bradley%2C%20Alex%20Sharp%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SUZUME
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Makoto%20Shinkai%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Nanoka%20Hara%2C%20Hokuto%20Matsumura%2C%20Eri%20Fukatsu%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Updated: September 13, 2023, 4:00 AM