Equities and the US dollar began this week in a rather muted fashion after a trend-setting period.
The US Federal Reserve famously signalled the end of its policy tightening last week.
“It could be a sign that the economy is normalising and doesn’t need the tight policy,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, signalling that markets could face up to three rate cuts in 2024.
The Fed dot plot – a key metric in determining Fed voting patterns in the future – stressed this.
The median projections for the Federal Open Market Committee for next year show that the mid-point of interest rates falls between 4.5 per cent and 4.75 per cent.
Markets lapped up the Fed’s dovish undertones and the dollar came under selling pressure. But looking forward, what should we expect?
Looking at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch Tool, while the odds of a rate cut at January’s meeting have increased to 10.3 per cent now, from 2.1 per cent a week earlier, it still seems more likely that the first cut will be delivered at the March 20th meeting (67.5 per cent probability of a rate cut versus 42.3 per cent a week ago and 28 per cent a month ago).
Yet again, the next few months will be highly dependent on data.
Markets are bracing for a soft landing “Goldilocks” scenario – a perfect combination where inflation continues to slow, employment remains robust and economic growth shows even expansion.
The Consumer Price Index figures released last week showed that year-on-year inflation slowed to 3.1 per cent in the US in November, lower for the third consecutive month.
Concurrently, US job growth remains strong. A total of 200,000 new jobs were added in November, while the overall unemployment rate, at 3.7 per cent, hovered around a 50-year low, amid an increasing labour force participation rate.
To this, add robust consumer spending, which accounts for more than 70 per cent of total gross domestic product, and the US economy seems to be heading towards the Goldilocks scenario.
However, the caveat is that if these conditions continue, then the Fed may not be forced to cut rates and would rather hold them unchanged in March.
An expanding economy coupled with slowing inflation makes little sense, especially considering the US is heading into a presidential election year, which historically means more fiscal spending that exert pressure on prices.
Therefore, along with keeping tabs on how option pricing changes for the coming Fed meetings via the CME FedWatch tool, keep a closer eye on US growth figures.
This starts with December 22’s quarter-on-quarter GDP print. Expectations are for growth to have increased to 5.2 per cent in the third quarter of this year, well above the previous reading of 2.1 per cent.
This is followed by the personal consumption expenditure index – the Fed’s preferred measure of US inflation.
The figure is expected to further slow down to 2.8 per cent versus a previous print of 3 per cent.
The weekly jobless claims report is due on December 21. A combination of stronger GDP, weaker inflation and stronger jobs will continue to put downward pressure on the US dollar, while equities will benefit with higher moves.
These will, perhaps, be the final pieces of market-moving news to focus on as we enter the final weeks of the year.
With institutional traders, funds and banks logging off and staying on the sidelines of the holiday period, liquidity will dry up and, as a result, intraday moves will most definitely be exaggerated starting from next week.
Looking at technicals, I would not be surprised if we see the S&P 500 index retest its record high above 4,800 when I write my next column.
Momentum is with equities now, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average already at a record high.
Turning to gold, following the past two months in which the precious metal moved from lows of $1,810 to highs of $2,148 levels, I think prices will now calm down and remain in a tight range.
While $1,980 must remain the lower support level, $2,070 should hold as an upper resistance through the start of next year.
Finally, amid all the bullish sentiment, Bitcoin broke through $40,000 and faced stiff resistance in the charge towards $45,000 levels.
The momentum is certainly with Bitcoin bulls, and if the Goldilocks scenario further solidifies over the next few months, those record highs of $69,000 will be very much in sight.
Gaurav Kashyap is a risk manager at Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Saturday
Fiorentina v Torino (8pm)
Hellas Verona v Roma (10.45pm)
Sunday
Parma v Napoli (2.30pm)
Genoa v Crotone (5pm)
Sassuolo v Cagliari (8pm)
Juventus v Sampdoria (10.45pm)
Monday
AC Milan v Bologna (10.45om)
Playing September 30
Benevento v Inter Milan (8pm)
Udinese v Spezia (8pm)
Lazio v Atalanta (10.45pm)
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20DarDoc%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Samer%20Masri%2C%20Keswin%20Suresh%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%24800%2C000%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Flat6Labs%2C%20angel%20investors%20%2B%20Incubated%20by%20Hub71%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi's%20Department%20of%20Health%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%2010%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.6-litre turbo
Transmission: six-speed automatic
Power: 165hp
Torque: 240Nm
Price: From Dh89,000 (Enjoy), Dh99,900 (Innovation)
On sale: Now
Scores
Oman 109-3 in 18.4 overs (Aqib Ilyas 45 not out, Aamir Kaleem 27) beat UAE 108-9 in 20 overs (Usman 27, Mustafa 24, Fayyaz 3-16, Bilal 3-23)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
MATCH INFO
Argentina 47 (Tries: Sanchez, Tuculet (2), Mallia (2), De La Fuente, Bertranou; Cons: Sanchez 5, Urdapilleta)
United States 17 (Tries: Scully (2), Lasike; Cons: MacGinty)
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
Confirmed%20bouts%20(more%20to%20be%20added)
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Tips from the expert
Dobromir Radichkov, chief data officer at dubizzle and Bayut, offers a few tips for UAE residents looking to earn some cash from pre-loved items.
- Sellers should focus on providing high-quality used goods at attractive prices to buyers.
- It’s important to use clear and appealing photos, with catchy titles and detailed descriptions to capture the attention of prospective buyers.
- Try to advertise a realistic price to attract buyers looking for good deals, especially in the current environment where consumers are significantly more price-sensitive.
- Be creative and look around your home for valuable items that you no longer need but might be useful to others.
T20 World Cup Qualifier fixtures
Tuesday, October 29
Qualifier one, 2.10pm – Netherlands v UAE
Qualifier two, 7.30pm – Namibia v Oman
Wednesday, October 30
Qualifier three, 2.10pm – Scotland v loser of qualifier one
Qualifier four, 7.30pm – Hong Kong v loser of qualifier two
Thursday, October 31
Fifth-place playoff, 2.10pm – winner of qualifier three v winner of qualifier four
Friday, November 1
Semi-final one, 2.10pm – Ireland v winner of qualifier one
Semi-final two, 7.30pm – PNG v winner of qualifier two
Saturday, November 2
Third-place playoff, 2.10pm
Final, 7.30pm
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre, twin-turbocharged V8
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 630bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh810,000
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Rebel%20Moon%20%E2%80%93%20Part%20Two%3A%20The%20Scargiver%20review%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Zack%20Snyder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sofia%20Boutella%2C%20Charlie%20Hunnam%2C%20Ed%20Skrein%2C%20Sir%20Anthony%20Hopkins%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Best Foreign Language Film nominees
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Carzaty%2C%20now%20Kavak%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELaunch%20year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarzaty%20launched%20in%202018%2C%20Kavak%20in%20the%20GCC%20launched%20in%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20140%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Automotive%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarzaty%20raised%20%246m%20in%20equity%20and%20%244m%20in%20debt%3B%20Kavak%20plans%20%24130m%20investment%20in%20the%20GCC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SUZUME
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Makoto%20Shinkai%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Nanoka%20Hara%2C%20Hokuto%20Matsumura%2C%20Eri%20Fukatsu%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Terminator: Dark Fate
Director: Tim Miller
Starring: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Linda Hamilton, Mackenzie Davis
Rating: 3/5
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 4 (Suarez 27', Vidal 32', Dembele 35', Messi 78')
Sevilla 0
Red cards: Ronald Araujo, Ousmane Dembele (Barcelona)
57%20Seconds
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rusty%20Cundieff%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJosh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Morgan%20Freeman%2C%20Greg%20Germann%2C%20Lovie%20Simone%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
MATCH INFO
New Zealand 176-8 (20 ovs)
England 155 (19.5 ovs)
New Zealand win by 21 runs
MATCH INFO
Tottenham 4 (Alli 51', Kane 50', 77'. Aurier 73')
Olympiakos 2 (El-Arabi 06', Semedo')
Cry Macho
Director: Clint Eastwood
Stars: Clint Eastwood, Dwight Yoakam
Rating:**
Jumanji: The Next Level
Director: Jake Kasdan
Stars: Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Karen Gillan, Jack Black, Nick Jonas
Two out of five stars
Quick%20facts
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EStorstockholms%20Lokaltrafik%20(SL)%20offers%20free%20guided%20tours%20of%20art%20in%20the%20metro%20and%20at%20the%20stations%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20tours%20are%20free%20of%20charge%3B%20all%20you%20need%20is%20a%20valid%20SL%20ticket%2C%20for%20which%20a%20single%20journey%20(valid%20for%2075%20minutes)%20costs%2039%20Swedish%20krone%20(%243.75)%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ETravel%20cards%20for%20unlimited%20journeys%20are%20priced%20at%20165%20Swedish%20krone%20for%2024%20hours%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAvoid%20rush%20hour%20%E2%80%93%20between%209.30%20am%20and%204.30%20pm%20%E2%80%93%20to%20explore%20the%20artwork%20at%20leisure%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
The most expensive investment mistake you will ever make
When is the best time to start saving in a pension? The answer is simple – at the earliest possible moment. The first pound, euro, dollar or dirham you invest is the most valuable, as it has so much longer to grow in value. If you start in your twenties, it could be invested for 40 years or more, which means you have decades for compound interest to work its magic.
“You get growth upon growth upon growth, followed by more growth. The earlier you start the process, the more it will all roll up,” says Chris Davies, chartered financial planner at The Fry Group in Dubai.
This table shows how much you would have in your pension at age 65, depending on when you start and how much you pay in (it assumes your investments grow 7 per cent a year after charges and you have no other savings).
|
Age
|
$250 a month
|
$500 a month
|
$1,000 a month
|
|
25
|
$640,829
|
$1,281,657
|
$2,563,315
|
|
35
|
$303,219
|
$606,439
|
$1,212,877
|
|
45
|
$131,596
|
$263,191
|
$526,382
|
|
55
|
$44,351
|
$88,702
|
$177,403
|
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
Get Out
Director: Jordan Peele
Stars: Daniel Kaluuya, Allison Williams, Catherine Keener, Bradley Whitford
Four stars
Seemar’s top six for the Dubai World Cup Carnival:
1. Reynaldothewizard
2. North America
3. Raven’s Corner
4. Hawkesbury
5. New Maharajah
6. Secret Ambition
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
LIKELY TEAMS
South Africa
Faf du Plessis (captain), Dean Elgar, Aiden Markram, Hashim Amla, AB de Villiers, Quinton de Kock (wkt), Vernon Philander, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Morne Morkel, Lungi Ngidi.
India (from)
Virat Kohli (captain), Murali Vijay, Lokesh Rahul, Cheteshwar Pujara, Rohit Sharma, Ajinkya Rahane, Hardik Pandya, Dinesh Karthik (wkt), Ravichandran Ashwin, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Ishant Sharma, Mohammad Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Hotel Silence
Auður Ava Ólafsdóttir
Pushkin Press
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
BLACKBERRY
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Matt%20Johnson%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Jay%20Baruchel%2C%20Glenn%20Howerton%2C%20Matt%20Johnson%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE BIO
Favourite author - Paulo Coelho
Favourite holiday destination - Cuba
New York Times or Jordan Times? NYT is a school and JT was my practice field
Role model - My Grandfather
Dream interviewee - Che Guevara
How to vote in the UAE
1) Download your ballot https://www.fvap.gov/
2) Take it to the US Embassy
3) Deadline is October 15
4) The embassy will ensure all ballots reach the US in time for the November 3 poll
The biog
Hobby: "It is not really a hobby but I am very curious person. I love reading and spend hours on research."
Favourite author: Malcom Gladwell
Favourite travel destination: "Antigua in the Caribbean because I have emotional attachment to it. It is where I got married."
